Sweden took a relatively unique approach to Covid and I feared the worst...

[dagle]

Doesn't help explain the rise in warmer locations. El Paso is having a terrible surge, temperature right now (9pm, CST) is 70F with minimal seasonal change.

surge in deaths or surge in cases? beyond temperature, climate, etc. you have other factors like neighboring populations etc... just look at the US or any other place north of the equator, there's generally a huge spike in cases and more worryingly a huge spike in deaths.

i looked at the el paso data and it doesn't appear to be out of control like the colder climates (im not even sure what you consider a terrible surge, it's trending upwards but not nearly as bad as colder places lol)

 

[Yakoo752]

am i misunderstanding, what do you think we disagree on in the below quote then?

The why part

Like I said, I haven’t looked at Sweden’s data.

Are you saying deaths are increasing solely/primarily because it’s cold outside?

I don’t know why but I imagine it has something to do with general health statistics.

 

[dagle]

If we’re all using the same tests, the test issues wash themselves out, right?

There’s the issue of the asymptomatic but I would assume that to be similar as well.

I assume we’re all categorizing our deaths similarly.

My focus is on the US and not Sweden so I haven’t looked to their data but I’m suspecting the reason we’re having this conversation is less Swedes are dying in proportion to Americans dying

So why aren’t Swedes dying of Covid at the same rate?

this last question is what i was getting at because it's just the beginning of flu season.. in the past week or two depending on how you want to cut it, you see a pretty alarming uptick in deaths for northern latitudes across the board (generally)...

sweden doesn't follow this pattern for whatever reason.

 

[Yakoo752]

Are you suggesting there are flu deaths that are being miscategorized as Covid?

 

[tzrider]

The disconnect seems to be in whether we’re talking about the raw number of deaths or an increasing percentage of deaths relative to infections.

If deaths are increasing because infections are increasing proportionately, you might make the case that weather is driving different behaviors that lead to more infections and deaths. If the death rate per infection is increasing, I don’t see an obvious connection to weather.

 

[dagle]

no, i am not saying they are miscategorized deaths. im saying the "flu season" effect also applies to COVID. (the behaviors of people as andy mentioned). Researchers hypothesized and found evidence that in colder, damper climates viruses may live in the the air longer, people may be indoors with others to avoid the cold in groups, etc. it becomes favorable to the disease. just google the research on the seasonality of the flu if you're unfamiliar. it may also tagteam with the flu and double whammy people with unfortunate timing to catch both at once.

 

[Yakoo752]

Agreed with that Dagle.

I would expect that the sheltering in place, social distancing, and wearing a mask would minimize it.

to note: it's been a very mild flu season so far and if it remains similar to that what was seen in the southern hemisphere, we might get lucky and not have the double whammy effect.

 

[Climber]

If we’re all using the same tests, the test issues wash themselves out, right?

There’s the issue of the asymptomatic but I would assume that to be similar as well.

I assume we’re all categorizing our deaths similarly.

My focus is on the US and not Sweden so I haven’t looked to their data but I’m suspecting the reason we’re having this conversation is less Swedes are dying in proportion to Americans dying

So why aren’t Swedes dying of Covid at the same rate?

I suspect that in some states, there are different standards being applied.

I see patterns in data that just don't add up. Different standards being applied (i.e. if something besides covid-19 was involved, not including them in covid-19 death counts) would explain the discrepancies very well.

 

[Yakoo752]

Yeah, I notice them too at times. Most of the times when I look into it, the state claims backlog :dunno

I note the variance in my files and move on.

Not sure who to trust or not and not worth focusing on it at this time.

 

[ctwo]

If we’re all using the same tests, the test issues wash themselves out, right?

There’s the issue of the asymptomatic but I would assume that to be similar as well.

I assume we’re all categorizing our deaths similarly.

My focus is on the US and not Sweden so I haven’t looked to their data but I’m suspecting the reason we’re having this conversation is less Swedes are dying in proportion to Americans dying

So why aren’t Swedes dying of Covid at the same rate?

It seems obvious that the Swedes were not testing much in the beginning, but they certainly are now.

It doesn't really look like the Swedes are dying that much less, or that it would be difficult to explain the differences (looking at the the chart I posted). Timings are a little offset but area under the curves look about the same, from arm's length anyway.

The Swede's took their lumps straight away, we've dragged them out through the summer. I'm sure everyone has learned how to better treat an infection and once the weakest are weeded out, the death rate will decline until you see it rise due to the virus finding fresh communities to infect.

I agree with Holeshot's comment on behaviors during the winter months, plus we have the holidays. It's that time of year for us to gather that has been ingrained in our psyche over centuries, like instinct.

 

[Yakoo752]

I agree ctwo and I do think the uptick is partially a function of people being indoors.

re: Sweden, I haven't done the math but I agree with you. Eyeball says we're about the same.

Let's not dismiss personal responsibility though. The people that were pushing it by meeting up with friends outdoors are just increasing their risks by meeting indoors.

 

[tzrider]

What's not the same is Sweden's deaths per 100K people as compared to other Nordic countries, where similar weather is found. At over 57 deaths per 100K, Sweden is more than 11 times worse than Norway.

 

[Climber]

Lot's of numbers, both health related and financial related.

Once a vaccine becomes widely available, then we'll have a better grasp on the strategies taken and the ultimate cost of those decisions.

I think we're still too early to have most of the data required to make those observations, it's kind of like watching an 800m race and trying to call it at 400m.

 

[ksandvik]

What's not the same is Sweden's deaths per 100K people as compared to other Nordic countries, where similar weather is found. At over 57 deaths per 100K, Sweden is more than 11 times worse than Norway.

Yes, that's why the other Nordic countries are confused about Sweden's policies and the reason Swedes were not allowed to travel to the other Nordic countries for a while unlike other Europeans.

 

[Holeshot]

But we’re talking deaths not infections.

Seasonality as a contributor to death? I'm arguing it's a contributor to infection. Death derives from an infection, etc.

 

[Climber]

Seasonality as a contributor to death? I'm arguing it's a contributor to infection. Death derives from an infection, etc.

Doesn't death derive from complications caused by infections?

 

[Holeshot]

Sure, given nuances, yeah. Death brought on by the infection. Better said?

 

[Climber]

Sure, given nuances, yeah. Death brought on by the infection. Better said?

Remember, I'm an engineer, of such details machines fail, planes crash and $Billion mars landers crash.

Yes, the revised description is accurate.

 

[budman]

So glad we got the black and white perspective agreed to.

 

[Holeshot]

So glad we got the black and white perspective agreed to.

me too! Brett time is well spent. It's been awhile since we've seen each