Sweden took a relatively unique approach to Covid and I feared the worst...

[Climber]

The final analysis will be largely decided by when and how effective vaccines turn out to be, IMHO.

It's still too early to pass judgment on the course of action they've taken, that will probably be clearer a year from now.

 

[Robert R1]

what we're likely seeing is seasonality... flu season's here for places north of the equator which also likely amplifies COVID's contagiousness. the virus likely lives longer as it gets colder and wetter and since it's vapor/droplet born (the cold brings on more vapor). Additionally, there's less sun/UV to sterilize whether it be the duration of the days or clouds blocking UV.

It was covered in one of the explainer videos for sweden's reaction to covid months ago. The seasonality component is also reason why there's a spike everywhere in a northern latitude but not southern (generally. anomalies will exist)

You’re missing the point entirely. Herd immunity wasn’t achieved in the slightest of sense. The strategy was a failure.

 

[dagle]

what do you think herd immunity is, and what constitutes a success or failure? lol it's not that black and white, man.. but feel free to keep casting stones from the glass house lol (where do you think our country stands... ?)

 

[Climber]

Sweden has not, by any standard, achieved herd immunity. This is in evidence by their current surge in cases.

Currently, for countries over 2 million, Slovenia, Georgia and Croatia are experiencing the worst surges.

 

[Yakoo752]

what do you think herd immunity is, and what constitutes a success or failure? lol it's not that black and white, man..

lul, wat? not sure, I understand this...

Herd immunity occurs when the threshold population falls below the transmissibility of the virus. At that time, the disease will decline.

It pretty much is black and white. How you reach it, may not be.

It is different for every virus because the infectability and transmissibility is different (r0) for each.

You can reach herd immunity through various means but the end result is still herd immunity.

 

[dagle]

so you guys think that herd immunity is achieved overnight...?

 

[Yakoo752]

With a vaccine, my office can reach herd immunity in about 10 hours.
Without one, it would take a few weeks

The size and population density of a population will dictate how fast it can.

 

[dagle]

ah so do we still disagree on herd immunity's black-and-white-ness?

 

[ksandvik]

You could achieve herd immunity without vaccines and with a lot of dead people.

 

[Yakoo752]

ah so do we still disagree on herd immunity's black-and-white-ness?

Correct, we still disagree

It's black and white

If x% of my office is immune, we have herd immunity

If x% of the US is immune, they have herd immunity

If x% of the world is immune, they have herd immunity

The time it takes and the amount of dead your willing to risk, are grey.

 

[dagle]

Gotcha, but your office, the US, and the world is not static... correct? (the x%)

 

[Yakoo752]

Herd immunity is simple, how you get there is complex.

What constitutes success is a given locations herd immunity.

The US has herd immunity for a lot of things the world does not.

 

[Yakoo752]

Gotcha, but your office, the US, and the world is not static... correct? (the x%)

nope, that % is pretty damn static EDIT: for each virus

 

[dagle]

"pretty damn static" isn't absolutely static.. thus there is grey...

i already disagree with the notion because i can think of examples to disprove that theory, but i don't think there's value in that discussion anyways lol...

 

[Yakoo752]

oh god

:facepalm

 

[Yakoo752]

yes, the difference will be found in variance, you know the +/- x degrees because that's math

so is there a difference between 91% and 92% or 95%? Sure, but it's all within the the acceptable ranges

 

[dagle]

ladies and gentlemen, grey! :thumbup

im glad we reached that without attacking each other's professions or incomes this time.

 

[Yakoo752]

nope

 

[GAJ]

Sweden has "given up" on herd immunity as have most Governors so it is a moot point to argue the merits.

 

[dagle]

well here's the interesting thing and my motivation to stay objective about what sweden tried (which is getting more diluted by modifications). im not a swede obviously, i don't have a horse in the race. but i think the concept and application of their strategy is worth exploring/experimenting with (unfortunate for the swedes that got murked) because it's in line with a lot of other viruses we've seen.

take a look at the daily increases in COVID deaths (not cases) for other EU countries. you have a handful in strict lockdown that are doing great (finland, norway)... but you also have new all-time-high deaths in countries like poland, germany, etc.

i don't think we're in the endgame of COVID yet and i don't think we know with certainty what approach was best. with sweden we have a small glimpse into what the herd immunity approach looks like (and the data is completely dirty because its specific to sweden). just compare the sweden covid death curves with other north-of-the-equator countries and look at shapes. i don't know what the end result will be, but i think something's happening.