Georgia: The nation's test case

[Climber]

a lot of places had death spikes yesterday.

Local hospital had 0 deaths for a while, 14 yesterday

Stanford has a total of 4 covid patients (as of Tuesday morning)

What is the cause of that?

Delay in reporting at state level? Delay of reporting at coroner level (or whatever level does the reporting)? Delay in data collection from JH?

I do notice very spikey data for both cases and deaths, which has been the case all along.

 

[Archimedes]

Georgia had a spike yesterday of 78 deaths, their highest in almost a month (79 on 4/27) with their highest single day number being a spike up to 100/day but that looks like a bunch of unreported deaths getting reported on a single day. With 7 day averaging applied, this is their highest total throughout the whole pandemic.

It may just be an abheration, or it could be the start of the climb, time will tell.

One day reporting is meaningless and their seven day average is still below SIP levels. If they stay below double SIP over the long term, they made the right decision.

But let's talk about the current media fear spot du jour - Alabama! A state with fewer deaths per million and cases per million than the national average, only slightly higher than California. A state where even in the hottest hot spot (Mobile County), new cases are basically averaging flat, with no huge spikes anywhere or statewide. Yet the media cherrypicks ICU beds in one or two cities at a single point in time and screams 'See we're opening too fast! We're all gonnnnaaaa diiiiiieeeee!!!!1'

 

[Climber]

One day reporting is meaningless and their seven day average is still below SIP levels. If they stay below double SIP over the long term, they made the right decision.

But let's talk about the current media fear spot du jour - Alabama! A state with fewer deaths per million and cases per million than the national average, only slightly higher than California. A state where even in the hottest hot spot (Mobile County), new cases are basically averaging flat, with no huge spikes anywhere or statewide. Yet the media cherrypicks ICU beds in one or two cities at a single point in time and screams 'See we're opening too fast! We're all gonnnnaaaa diiiiiieeeee!!!!1'

Actually, their 7 day average is higher, according to JH data.

As to Alabama, news media is going to do what news media does, they are all guilty of it to one degree or another.

I haven't heard any headlines about Rhode Island and they're the most act state, currently, just as Qatar has more than twice new cases than any other country over several weeks time. And yet not a peep about them, probably because they're only 'reported' 3 deaths in the last week.

 

[Yakoo752]

What is the cause of that?

Delay in reporting at state level? Delay of reporting at coroner level (or whatever level does the reporting)? Delay in data collection from JH?

I do notice very spikey data for both cases and deaths, which has been the case all along.

Not a delay in reporting. This is information right from the horses mouth. I sit on a few hospitals re-escalation calls.

 

[Climber]

Not a delay in reporting. This is information right from the horses mouth. I sit on a few hospitals re-escalation calls.

Glad to have your input! :thumbup

I hope you don't ever get the impression that I'm doubting your input.

 

[mlm]

...news media is going to do what news media does, they are all guilty of it to one degree or another....

Yup, just as they always have. Pretty ironic how sensationalized the people who get triggered on it can get. :laughing

 

[Climber]

Yup, just as they always have. Pretty ironic how sensationalized the people who get triggered on it can get. :laughing

Yup. There is going to be a shit-ton of manipulation happening over the next 5 months from both sides and by the media from profit reasons.

It's going to get sickening as they massively spin anything and everything related to this virus, the economy and the deaths.

 

[Archimedes]

Cases down again, deaths down again, Seven day averages way down. Strange. But, but, but, but...that bar chart...

Funny how certain people are triggered by good things happening in certain states, yet they totally ignore the horror in certain other states. Very strange. A lot of focus on states with cv rates below average and little on the states running 10x the national average. Very weird.

 

[Archimedes]

Last day of SIP in Georgia (7 Day Averages)

New Hospitalizations 148
New Deaths 32
New Cases 676

Yesterday in Georgia, four weeks after SIP was lifted (7 day averages)

New Hospitalizations 97
New Deaths 31
New Cases 712

No spike at all yet. And note, current 7 day average testing is 2.55x higher than at the end of SIP, yet new cases are only marginally higher. The positive test rate has dropped from 9.1% to 3.8%.

Very strange. People seem to be doing a pretty good job without staying in their houses 24/7.

 

[Blankpage]

Fake news

 

[Archimedes]

Fake news

Keep believing that in your little echo chamber of bias.

 

[Archimedes]

They must be confiscating all the video of the overrun hospitals...:laughing

 

[Dr_SLO]

Last day of SIP in Georgia (7 Day Averages)

New Hospitalizations 148
New Deaths 32
New Cases 676

Yesterday in Georgia, four weeks after SIP was lifted (7 day averages)

New Hospitalizations 97
New Deaths 31
New Cases 712

No spike at all yet. And note, current 7 day average testing is 2.55x higher than at the end of SIP, yet new cases are only marginally higher. The positive test rate has dropped from 9.1% to 3.8%.

Very strange. People seem to be doing a pretty good job without staying in their houses 24/7.

Georgia is one example but a number of states have 'reopened' for businesses. However, folk are not behaving normally. A few weeks ago this piece revealed that folk eating in restaurants was down considerably. No surprise there considering folk have been asked to behave in a way as to minimize transmission. There won't be a big spike in these places yet. Perhaps there never will. However, that's unlikely because when the density of people in enclosed environments such as restaurants start to increase that's when larger increases in cases will be seen. In short, it's too early to make any conclusions about how well the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is being controlled.

 

[Johndicezx9]

Not a word about Texas?

 

[rothmans]

Since they've volunteered, or at least were volunteered by their governor, they will be the test case for the nation, for the most part.

Here are my predictions on what happens:
1. Things are going to start getting bad around the end of May.
2. Deaths will peak around June 15-22.


What are other people's predictions? .

I predict you were wrong on this one like just about everything else.

From CNN today ( the fakest of the fake news pimps )
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/26/us/georgia-coronavirus/index.html

"Some health experts worried that the reopening, combined with the state's limited testing capability, could lead to an increase in cases that could overwhelm hospitals, such as happened in Albany, Georgia, in the early days of the pandemic.
So far, that fear has not been borne out. The preliminary data suggests that reopening has not led to a spike in cases -- but the virus has continued to steadily infect people and shows no signs of waning"

 

[Yakoo752]

I predict you were wrong on this one like just about everything else.

From CNN today ( the fakest of the fake news pimps )
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/26/us/georgia-coronavirus/index.html


"Some health experts worried that the reopening, combined with the state's limited testing capability, could lead to an increase in cases that could overwhelm hospitals, such as happened in Albany, Georgia, in the early days of the pandemic.
So far, that fear has not been borne out. The preliminary data suggests that reopening has not led to a spike in cases -- but the virus has continued to steadily infect people and shows no signs of waning"

from the article you linked

Georgia was one of several states that combined numbers from diagnostic and antibody tests on their website. Because those two tests measure different things -- diagnostic tests check for current infection, and antibody tests check for past infection -- combining them could draw a misleading picture of where the virus is spreading and how many people currently have the virus.

Georgia isn't even worth looking at right now, from a data perspective.

and I agree with this

Chowell said he expected the Covid-19 cases to remain steady through the summer, although that could change at any time.
Still, he worried more about a wave of new cases in the fall if schools reopen and as people stay inside more when the weather turns colder.

 

[Climber]

I predict you were wrong on this one like just about everything else.

From CNN today ( the fakest of the fake news pimps )
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/26/us/georgia-coronavirus/index.html

"Some health experts worried that the reopening, combined with the state's limited testing capability, could lead to an increase in cases that could overwhelm hospitals, such as happened in Albany, Georgia, in the early days of the pandemic.
So far, that fear has not been borne out. The preliminary data suggests that reopening has not led to a spike in cases -- but the virus has continued to steadily infect people and shows no signs of waning"

As I said in the other thread, we aren't to the dates I was predicting.

Premature ejaculation.

 

[budman]

:laughing

Sorry. That was funny.

 

[bojangle]

I'll take some premature inoculation . :sex

 

[tuxumino]

article from the Christian Science Monitor that seems to suggest that expected spike in GA isn't happening

https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Socie...ia-reopens-is-it-creating-a-model-for-America

What’s behind a model whose success bucks conventional wisdom? Some experts point to the heat, and the humidity. “The weather would be my answer,” says Michael Levitt, a Stanford biophysicist who is tracking the virus, in an interview.