Georgia: The nation's test case

[Climber]

Since they've volunteered, or at least were volunteered by their governor, they will be the test case for the nation, for the most part.

Here are my predictions on what happens:
1. Things are going to start getting bad around the end of May.
2. Deaths will peak around June 15-22.

I think that after 2 weeks and no real rises, people are going to start getting careless thinking that everything has been over-blown. The younger people who are being more careless will expose their more at-risk relatives while walking around asymptomatic. Two weeks after that, their at-risk relatives will start showing symptoms, a week later they'll have to be hospitalized, some of them will die a week after that.

This is going to be a study of human nature as much a biology of a very infectious virus.

I hope it doesn't work out like that, but there is too much information pointing towards this outcome.

What are other people's predictions? Let's test our knowledge and see where we need to adjust our perspective to better understand how it will impact us.

 

[budman]

Their citizen base will have a lower average age.

We will see.

 

[Johndicezx9]

I channel surf to Live PD on occasion (I miss the Salinas coverage since they stopped), but you see who’s taking mask protocols seriously around the country and who isn’t, on both sides....

 

[rodr]

Georgia cases and deaths have been increasing relentlessly since early March. I expect this growth will trend from linear to exponential.

 

[tuxumino]

I found this article, well it's not really an article but on going dashboard on reopening.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html

Georgia
0
1,000 new coronavirus cases
Order in place
Reopening
March 1
April 1
May 9
7-day avg.
Shelter in place expired on April 30.
Gov. Brian Kemp, a Republican, went toe-to-toe with the White House and local mayors over his decision to reopen large parts of Georgia’s economy ahead of other states, starting April 24. Like other governors, Mr. Kemp laid out certain requirements — including screening workers for fever — and said it would not be “business as usual.”

 

[Climber]

Georgia cases and deaths have been increasing relentlessly since early March. I expect this growth will trend from linear to exponential.

Their deaths/million have been trending down for the last couple weeks, but that is misleading as it takes a couple weeks for people to catch the disease, then a couple more for death, if it gets that bad for them.

 

[The Smokester]

Here's an article from WaPo on how DeSantis is handling the pandemic in Florida...Perhaps another test case.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/life...f6537c-9135-11ea-a9c0-73b93422d691_story.html

Regarding the crowds on the Florida beaches during Spring Break 2020, I have wondered how many infections were exported back to the home states of the participants where they were counted, and not counted in FL?

 

[Pushrod]

Here's an article from WaPo on how DeSantis is handling the pandemic in Florida...Perhaps another test case.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/life...f6537c-9135-11ea-a9c0-73b93422d691_story.html

Regarding the crowds on the Florida beaches during Spring Break 2020, I have wondered how many infections were exported back to the home states of the participants where they were counted, and not counted in FL?

Resident of Orlando here.

Gov. Ron DeSantis has obscured, hidden, deflected reporting of cases of Covid 19 and the deaths resulting from it. He has bent over for special interests including (SMDH) professional wrestling and religious services. All the while we have Sen. Rick Scott (the same guy who paid BILLIONS in fines for Medicare fraud) applauding DeSantis. Now the beaches are open again.

Its like our governor and senator don't have our best interests at heart.

 

[Climber]

Here's an article from WaPo on how DeSantis is handling the pandemic in Florida...Perhaps another test case.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/life...f6537c-9135-11ea-a9c0-73b93422d691_story.html

Regarding the crowds on the Florida beaches during Spring Break 2020, I have wondered how many infections were exported back to the home states of the participants where they were counted, and not counted in FL?

I've wondered that as well.

I know bike week happened at a critical time, and those folks come from all over the country, interact with others to a considerable degree while riding to and from bike week and are very active in groups. There are also a ton of them from Colorado, and it got hit the hardest of the central states (outside of Michigan) about 4-5 weeks later.

 

[GAJ]

Resident of Orlando here.

Gov. Ron DeSantis has obscured, hidden, deflected reporting of cases of Covid 19 and the deaths resulting from it. He has bent over for special interests including (SMDH) professional wrestling and religious services. All the while we have Sen. Rick Scott (the same guy who paid BILLIONS in fines for Medicare fraud) applauding DeSantis. Now the beaches are open again.

Its like our governor and senator don't have our best interests at heart.

I know two people in Florida who have been out of work since March and nary an unemployment check to be seen yet.

Amazing there aren't protests in the streets to be honest.

My sister in Georgia says that most people are not changing behavior despite rules being "relaxed."

Meanwhile I expect an explosion in cases in the close confinement of the West Wing where social distancing and wearing of masks are not used because they have "tests"! :wtf

 

[The Smokester]

Resident of Orlando here.

Gov. Ron DeSantis has obscured, hidden, deflected reporting of cases of Covid 19 and the deaths resulting from it. He has bent over for special interests including (SMDH) professional wrestling and religious services. All the while we have Sen. Rick Scott (the same guy who paid BILLIONS in fines for Medicare fraud) applauding DeSantis. Now the beaches are open again.

Its like our governor and senator don't have our best interests at heart.

Thanks for posting. Good to hear some ground truth..

The WaPo article alludes to some of this. Apparently he has taken control of the representation of statistics, forbidding local health authorities from publishing independently. Hard to believe that this is legal, or sensible, in a democracy.

 

[DataDan]

Here's an interim update on Georgia, showing the graph of new cases available today at https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report.

Because of the reporting lag due to diagnosis and testing delay, the most recent 14 days are subject to change (dimmed in graph). However, data published today includes the first week of relaxed restrictions outside the 14-day window.

To date, nearly half of Georgia deaths have been in nursing homes and other senior-care facilities (744 out of 1527). Because the state has taken aggressive measures to protect that population, I expect the decline in deaths to continue, and maybe to drop sharply.

 

[Climber]

Dan, do you know what data they're using?
Their numbers don't match the JH dataset.

 

[DataDan]

Dan, do you know what data they're using?
Their numbers don't match the JH dataset.

From the Georgia DPH site: "These data represent confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the Georgia Department of Public Health (DPH) as of 5/14/2020, 1:30:42 PM."

I have been following official state and county public health sites, along with CDC. I don't know what the JH dataset is.

 

[Yakoo752]

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/georgia#historical

You can trend off of this.

The numbers are aligned

 

[Climber]

It was my understanding that the John Hopkins data was the most widely trusted of the different data sources.

I don't know how they aggregate their data. There seems to be a difference, to varying degrees, between all data sets.

It makes me nervous when governor's who are known to play politics have control of the data. Apparently, in one of the states where the meat packing plants are located, the plants are no longer required to report new cases. That's a dangerous step.

 

[Yakoo752]

It depends now.

"These include U.S. county and state health departments, multiple national government health departments, as well as data aggregating websites including 1point3acres, Worldometers.info, BNO,and the COVID Tracking Project (testing and hospitalizations), which rely on a combination of reporting from local health departments and local media reports. The full list of sources is maintained on our CSSE COVID19 GitHub Repository. All dashboard data curation and updates are coordinated by a team at JHU."

Whereas Covid Tracking Project ONLY uses state supplied data and they cite all of their state sources.

So you have to trust the states aren't lying :dunno

 

[Climber]

As the stakes get higher, they they are going to get sky high, the temptations and reasons for influencing the data is going to grow.

There is another data source that I'm considering as an alternative, where users can go between, it is CDS (Corona Data Scraper).

 

[Yakoo752]

Yep

it's going to get interesting

Florida has restricted all data from being released. Only person who can release data is the Governor.

 

[bojangle]

Yep

it's going to get interesting

Florida has restricted all data from being released. Only person who can release data is the Governor.

What the fuck! We don't live in China. The Florida Governor can't violate the first amendment. I hope he is ignored.