Yakoo752
USN
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) applied for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) of its Covid-19 vaccine:
I typically don't include forward looking statements or estimates because, historically, it's bitten me in the ass here :laughing but...
New cases continue to fall, although prediction models raise caution:
laymens statement - exponential growth should be followed by a similar exponential decay, any slow down in decay is suggestive of an increase in infections...
- JNJ's vaccine was 66% effective in reducing Covid-19 symptoms during its Phase 3 clinical trial, with no significant adverse effects;
- In the US, the vaccine achieved 72% efficacy; in Latin America, 66%; and in South Africa, 57%. The geographical difference is presumed to be the result of higher proportions of newer variants present in Latin America and South Africa;
- JNJ hopes to receive its EUA by the end of the month; it is prepared to deliver a billion doses worldwide in 2021, including 100 million in the US by mid-summer;
- JNJ's vaccine requires only a single dose and can be transported and stored at typical refrigeration temperatures.
- Overall, the vaccine delivered 89.3% efficacy;
- The vaccine was 85.6% effective against the newer South African strain and 95.6% effective against older strains;
- These results indicate that the vaccines remain highly effective against newer strains but, with some loss in efficacy;
- Novavax is nearing full enrollment for its Phase 3 trial in the US, placing the possibility of approval here this summer.
- The vaccine has greater efficacy with longer delays between doses than with short delays;
- It also showed evidence of reduced asymptomatic transmission after two doses;
- The potential for asymptomatic transmission has raised a significant concern about the vaccination effort - could persons already vaccinated still infect others? These encouraging results parallel earlier findings with the Moderna vaccine.
- The 7-day average is 1.3 million administered doses; in our current projection model, we presumed that 1.2 million doses need to be administered daily until March 1; at that point, this increases to 1.8 million doses daily based on the availability of the JNJ vaccine;
- 7.2 million Americans have received two doses of a vaccine;
- Doses administered each day are tracking closely with the 7-day average doses distributed to the states.
- Covid-19 daily census fell by 44,000 patients over the past four weeks (33%);
- Yesterday's census was lower than on any day since November 24;
- ICU and ventilator census has declined by about 25% over the past four weeks;
- Covid-19 ER visits declined sharply since early-January, following a steep increase in November and December.
- The 7-day average deaths are lower than for each of the past three weeks, declining by nearly 10% from the rate three weeks ago.
I typically don't include forward looking statements or estimates because, historically, it's bitten me in the ass here :laughing but...
New cases continue to fall, although prediction models raise caution:
- The 7-day average new case rate has declined twenty-four straight days, falling by nearly 50% during that time;
- Estimate of the Reproduction Rate (Rt) has been below 1.0 for twenty-five straight days; nonetheless, this rate has increased each of last nine days;
- Similarly, estimate of actual daily infections has declined twenty-eight consecutive days; the most recent estimate was lower than it had been since October 26. This estimate, however, is declining at a slower rate each day.
laymens statement - exponential growth should be followed by a similar exponential decay, any slow down in decay is suggestive of an increase in infections...
arty
