Corona Virus are you ready?

[tuxumino]

alright California, we go our own variant and it's worse than the others.


https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/California-s-coronavirus-strain-looks-15972270.php

LOS ANGELES – A coronavirus variant that emerged in mid-2020 and surged to become the dominant strain in California not only spreads more readily than its predecessors, it also evades antibodies generated by COVID-19 vaccines or prior infection and it's associated with severe illness and death, researchers said.

 

[N4teTheGreat]

That strain may explain the surge in LA / elsewhere in Q4, but I do find it interesting that with the strain now dominant we're seeing a continued decrease in active cases / hospitalizations.

 

[berth]

Are we still waiting for any evidence of a Super Bowl Super Event?

 

[Yakoo752]

Are we still waiting for any evidence of a Super Bowl Super Event?

IF___... we should start seeing a slow down in reduction of cases OR an increase.

 

[bojangle]

alright California, we go our own variant and it's worse than the others.


https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/California-s-coronavirus-strain-looks-15972270.php

LOS ANGELES – A coronavirus variant that emerged in mid-2020 and surged to become the dominant strain in California not only spreads more readily than its predecessors, it also evades antibodies generated by COVID-19 vaccines or prior infection and it's associated with severe illness and death, researchers said.

More good news, always.

 

[brichter]

alright California, we go our own variant and it's worse than the others.


https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/California-s-coronavirus-strain-looks-15972270.php

LOS ANGELES – A coronavirus variant that emerged in mid-2020 and surged to become the dominant strain in California not only spreads more readily than its predecessors, it also evades antibodies generated by COVID-19 vaccines or prior infection and it's associated with severe illness and death, researchers said.

"The variant, known as CAL.20C, was first detected in a single case in Los Angeles County in July 2020, but it didn't show up again in Southern California until October 2020, according to the study, published Thursday (Feb. 11) in the journal JAMA. Then, cases of the variant skyrocketed in the L.A. area, coinciding with the region's winter surge in overall coronavirus cases.

Now, CAL.20C accounts for nearly half of COVID-19 cases in Southern California and about a third of cases in the state based on an analysis of viral genomes posted to a global database called GISAID.

What's more, the researchers found that by the end of January, the variant had spread to 19 other states, up from five states in November 2020. It has also spread beyond the U.S. to six other countries — Australia, Denmark, Israel, New Zealand, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

The researchers suspect travelers from Southern California are spreading the variant elsewhere. "CAL.20C is moving, and we think it is Californians who are moving it," study co-senior author Jasmine Plummer, a research scientist at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles"

Yay Southern CA for your antimask/"it's a hoax" beliefs. :rolleyes

 

[GAJ]

89 million have either had at least one shot or had the virus.

So almost at the 30 percent level.

That has to have some effect on avoiding another spike like we just had.

 

[N4teTheGreat]

89 million have either had at least one shot or had the virus.

So almost at the 30 percent level.

That has to have some effect on avoiding another spike like we just had.

I would think so, despite the gloomy headlines related to new variants, vaccines will still offer some protection which will help regardless.

 

[DataDan]

There is no killer mutant surge in California...

...even in Los Angeles County...

There is no Superbowl surge in Florida...

...or anywhere else...

States that could see a surge before widespread vaccination are Hawaii, Vermont, Maine, Oregon, Washington, and New Hampshire. All have had fewer than 6000 cases per 100,000 population and thus have a larger susceptible population than the rest of the US (8500 cases / 100K pop).


Data downloaded 2/23/2021 from:
COVID Tracking Project
California Department of Public Health
.

 

[Yakoo752]

Just a heads up, Covid Tracking Project is nearing EOL

They recommend moving all services to CDC

 

[Holeshot]

I have a friend who contracted Covid early on, in late April. He caught it again in January with more severe symptoms and has the lagging cough, still. He was tested both times and showed positive results. I wasn't aware this was the case. It would seem the vaccine may be more temporary than we think? Or not?

 

[Yakoo752]

I have a friend who contracted Covid early on, in late April. He caught it again in January with more severe symptoms and has the lagging cough, still. He was tested both times and showed positive results. I wasn't aware this was the case. It would seem the vaccine may be more temporary than we think? Or not?

:dunno

I have a friend who got it early on, she got the vaccine and the first dose hit her HARD.

Dr's advised against her getting a second dose.

I think we're gonna be dealing with it for some time. Masks until 2022 for certain.

 

[Climber]

There is no killer mutant surge in California...


States that could see a surge before widespread vaccination are Hawaii, Vermont, Maine, Oregon, Washington, and New Hampshire. All have had fewer than 6000 cases per 100,000 population and thus have a larger susceptible population than the rest of the US (8500 cases / 100K pop).


Data downloaded 2/23/2021 from:
COVID Tracking Project
California Department of Public Health
.

Thanks for the graphs, Dan.

I looked at the peaks and the 3 week death peaks 3 weeks later, here is what I came up with:
California (D=600, C=43000): 1.40% death rate
LA (D=220, C=14,500): 1.52% death rate
Florida (D=150, C=16000): 1.19% death rate
US (D=3200, C=250,000): 1.28% death rate.

That looks like California has a higher Death/Case rate and LA even higher. Caveat, a lot of factors there, especially with Florida which is most certainly under-reporting deaths. Still, the trend looks like California is faring worse than the national average and LA even worse.

 

[Climber]

Fucking rich people from Marin, having lived there for 4 years and saw what a bunch of entitled assholes their kids were back in the 90's, this doesn't surprise me.

Marin residents misuse access codes meant for Black, Latino communities to get COVID-19 vaccines

 

[Yakoo752]

J & J's 1 dose vaccine looks to be effective and reliable.

I expect it to be approved today by VRBPAC, this week by the FDA, and then doses available as early as the weekend.

This will add 20M vaccines to the US system by end of March, as agreed.

NOTE: I think this one is the least effective at 72%. Study underway to determine increased efficacy of a booster, timing tbd.

 

[DataDan]

Thanks for the graphs, Dan.

I looked at the peaks and the 3 week death peaks 3 weeks later, here is what I came up with:
California (D=600, C=43000): 1.40% death rate
LA (D=220, C=14,500): 1.52% death rate
Florida (D=150, C=16000): 1.19% death rate
US (D=3200, C=250,000): 1.28% death rate.

That looks like California has a higher Death/Case rate and LA even higher. Caveat, a lot of factors there, especially with Florida which is most certainly under-reporting deaths. Still, the trend looks like California is faring worse than the national average and LA even worse.

The metric I've been calculating for current case-fatality rate is this: deaths in the past 28 days / new cases in the preceding 28 days. That follows from the observation that in the past 6 months or so, the rise and peak in deaths follows the rise and peak in new cases by a month.

From that calculation, Texas, California, and Florida have nearly identical rates of 1.24% to 1.28%. US average is 1.37%.

There is no reason to believe that Florida is fudging its fatality counts. The lower percentage you calculated results from a sharp (but narrow) rise in cases--the denominator.

 

[Climber]

Florida has the highest senior population (65 and older), by percentage, of any of the largest states:
CA: 14.77%
New York: 16.94%
Texas: 12.89%
Florida: 20.94%

From absolutely everything we've seen with Covid-19, that should absolutely result in a higher percentage of deaths. But the data that Florida has provided, that has not happened. Something is very fishy with that fact.

 

[Joshman]

Fucking rich people from Marin, having lived there for 4 years and saw what a bunch of entitled assholes their kids were back in the 90's, this doesn't surprise me.

Marin residents misuse access codes meant for Black, Latino communities to get COVID-19 vaccines

CA is giving access codes based on race?
Legit question; not trying to provoke a political tangent.

 

[Yakoo752]

CA is giving access codes based on race?
Legit question; not trying to provoke a political tangent.

simple question, simple answer

Yes

complex answer

because reasons

The codes are part of a California program to remedy inequities in vaccine distribution and provided to community organizations to distribute to vulnerable communities for vaccine appointments at the Cal State Los Angeles and the Oakland Coliseum mass vaccine sites. Both of these locations are part of a state-federal partnership to distribute the vaccine and are designed to reach vulnerable communities.

I can go into more specifics regarding lack of insurance and lack of access due to various reasons that are highly correlated with the color of their skin.

 

[Joshman]

But the data that Florida has provided, that has not happened. Something is very fishy with that fact.

Could also be other factors reducing the death rate among older citizens. I dunno if I'd jump to the idea that they're fudging their numbers. It should make people look into why there's a difference