Corona Virus are you ready?

Abacinator

Abacinator

Unholy Blasphemies
ctwo said:
It's kinda fun that we have a new thing to beat each other up about...

Higher risk for who and who benefits the greater good?
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Here's the thing. As many people as possible must be vaccinated for it to be effective. It makes sense to start with groups at highest risk of infection or death. So healthcare workers and the elderly. Everyone benefits in the end. So be patient, stay home as much as possible, cover your fucking face if you go out, your time to be vaccinated will come.
 
Yakoo752

Yakoo752

USN
Abacinator said:
Here's the thing. As many people as possible must be vaccinated for it to be effective. It makes sense to start with groups at highest risk of infection or death. So healthcare workers and the elderly. Everyone benefits in the end. So be patient, stay home as much as possible, cover your fucking face if you go out, your time to be vaccinated will come.
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The whole purpose of the SIP and shit is to not overwhelm the health systems because in the beginning; NYC and Italy fell the fuck apart.

You vaccinate for the same reason. Healthcare is a finite resource so you protect supply (healthcare workers) and protect demand (patients most at risk to land in the hospital from the virus).
 
Yakoo752

Yakoo752

USN
Covid-19 hospitalizations:
  • Covid-19 hospital census has now declined on nineteen days in the past three weeks. There were 25,000 fewer Covid-19 patients in our nation's hospitals yesterday than there were at the beginning of the month;
  • California and Nevada have experienced marked improvement during this time; still, Covid-19 hospital occupancy remains of concern in these two states as well as Arizona, Connecticut, Georgia, and New York;
  • Yesterday's Covid-19 census was as low as it has been since December 11;
Vaccinations and Immunity Levels:
  • This effort continues to plod along - at least relative to what the US needs to protect its citizens; yesterday, 1.1 million Americans received a vaccine shot. To date, the US has administered 25.4 million doses;
  • An estimated 3.5 million Americans have now received both doses of either the Pfizer/BioNtech or Moderna vaccine;
  • From modeling purposes, estimates of herd immunity could be realized by mid-summer if vaccinations ramp-up to about 1.8 million per day once the JNJ vaccine is available and about 2.5-3 million per day once the second round of Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines become available;
  • An estimated 27% of Americans already could be immune at this point, given estimates of actual infections, vaccinations to-date, and the lag from vaccinations or infections to immunity. Most of this immunity thus far is via infection, as few people had received both doses and had enough time transpire to realize full immunity;
  • South Dakota and North Dakota may be the furthest along toward herd immunity, with 44% and 39% estimated immunity at this time.
Newly detected cases, estimated actual infections, and the reproduction rate:
  • Each of these measures has been dropping sharply throughout the month, highlighting the rapidly-improving situation in the US;
  • The 7-day new case rate is now as low as it has been since November 17;
More than 4,000 deaths were reported with coronavirus again yesterday; the 7-day average is only slightly lower than its high from two weeks ago. With the now-sustained drop in new infections of-late, we should see the number of deaths begin to taper off soon.
 
berth

berth

Well-known member
budman said:
That sounds like stuff is starting to move in the right direction.
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I am optimistic (but then I'm always optimistic), the restaurants are going to be opening up for patio dining over the weekend, we've talked to several that should be opening up tomorrow (which is good, it's pouring rain today!).

The vaccine is propagating, and the systems for distribution are getting the bugs worked out. Anyone who thought that something that directly impacts, well, everyone, was going to go off trouble free was fooling themselves.

My only dark side is the baseball owners are playings games (and not baseball games) with the season, and the Angels still don't have any pitching.

But, even that can turn around.
 
ctwo

ctwo

Merely Rhetorical
Seems like the right time to open up and send everyone back to work... :rolleyes
 

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Climber

Climber

Well-known member
ctwo said:
Seems like the right time to open up and send everyone back to work... :rolleyes
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Not yet, but the the light at the end of the tunnel is coming into focus.

California has had it's worst 3 days for deaths reported, but the new cases have definitely taken a downturn and with the vaccine being given we should see the deaths drop off in another week.

But, we're about 6 weeks away from spring break.....
 
ctwo

ctwo

Merely Rhetorical
Climber said:
Not yet, but the the light at the end of the tunnel is coming into focus.

California has had it's worst 3 days for deaths reported, but the new cases have definitely taken a downturn and with the vaccine being given we should see the deaths drop off in another week.

But, we're about 6 weeks away from spring break.....
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I don't see any light. Every active infection represents a disease vector and we are now at an all time high. So lifting SIPs and opening any public spaces seems foolish.
 
Yakoo752

Yakoo752

USN
CA Positive Test Results (7 day, end on thursday)

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Not out of the woods yet but trending in the right direction.

I will not be outdoor dining any time soon.
 

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ctwo

ctwo

Merely Rhetorical
The chart I posted says active cases - currently infected. I think that means that is the total count of sick people that can infect you right now.

Not someone who was infected and recovered.

That means about 1 out of 25 people in CA right now.

You go to Costco right now and there's likely to be several infectious people there walking around.
 
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Yakoo752

Yakoo752

USN
tzrider said:
I don't see anything that says "total cummulative." Are you referring to the chart ctwo posted?
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Specifically it says "Total Coronavirus Currently Infected" on the Y axis, so I asked for clarification on what "total means"

And since we don't have 1.5M current active infections, I make the assumptions it's cumulative.

CA has had a total of 3.2M infections

I can't imagine 1/2 are in the last 10 or 20 days...

At most we have between 350k to 650k known contagious peoples (2 week sum v 3 week sum)
 
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ctwo

ctwo

Merely Rhetorical
Yakoo752 said:
Specifically it says "Total Coronavirus Currently Infected" on the Y axis, so I asked for clarification on what "total means"

And since we don't have 1.5M current active infections, I make the assumptions it's cumulative.

CA has had a total of 3.2M infections

I can't imagine 1/2 are in the last 10 or 20 days...

At most we have between 350k to 650k known contagious peoples (2 week sum v 3 week sum)
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That's a good point. I was gonna suggest the end date of infection to be wobbly. What criteria is used? This is the problem with shitty data.

I'm much happier if current contagious are at most 650k - but the same metric questions that. I mean we are talking an exponential here...right?

I guess one could tally the daily infections over time and employ various infection end date criteria and run an offset plot. That's what I'd assume I was looking at.

There appears to have been just under a million new infections since the new year, so there's that. Is it possible that cases determined in Dec are still classified as infected?

And, those are just the positive tested. If I go back 20 days, there have been ~630k new infections. But what is the real number?
 
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