Corona Virus are you ready?

[Climber]

So, down here in Fresno they got some aid with military doctors and nurses to help relieve some of the hospital personnel who have been flat out for over a month.

I've been wondering where all of the military personnel have been ever since the early days when they helped in the worst hit cities.

 

[Yakoo752]

That's a good point. I was gonna suggest the end date of infection to be wobbly. What criteria is used? This is the problem with shitty data.

I'm much happier if current contagious are at most 650k - but the same metric questions that. I mean we are talking an exponential here...right?

I guess one could tally the daily infections over time and employ various infection end date criteria and run an offset plot. That's what I'd assume I was looking at.

There appears to have been just under a million new infections since the new year, so there's that. Is it possible that cases determined in Dec are still classified as infected?

And, those are just the positive tested. If I go back 20 days, there have been ~630k new infections. But what is the real number?

We see eye-eye

With exponential growth, you should see exponential decay (with some allowed variance)

So I assume we will be at pre holiday numbers in ~2 weeks.

FWIW; it would be interesting to overlay SIP dates with this to see if there is a strong correlation and ramp to effectiveness. We could see the trend entering and exiting

If anyone has those dates readily available, I would appreciate.

 

[Yakoo752]

• Test volume declined for the second successive week, although the US tested more people than all but four other weeks during the pandemic. Nonetheless, the test-positive rate declined for the third straight week. Last week's rate was lower than it was for any week since the beginning of November.
• The number of new cases fell for the third successive week, declining 35% during that span. There were fewer new cases this past week than any week since November 6-13.
• Only six states reported more new cases this past week than the prior week; in each of these states, the week-over-week increase was fewer than 2,500 cases. California detected 52,000 fewer new cases this past week than the preceding week.
• Covid-19 hospital occupancy plummeted this past week, with 19,000 fewer Covid-19 patients in the hospital yesterday than a week ago. This occupancy is lower than it has been since December 11.
• Covid-19 patients spent nearly 16,000 fewer days in the ICU last week than the prior week. The weekly ICU census declined on two successive weeks and is now lower than any time since December 5-11.
• The number of Covid-19 patient days on ventilators dropped by more than 5,000 week-over-week, the third successive week-over-week decline. This weekly census was lower than it has been since December 26-January 1.
• The only vital sign that failed to improve, deaths with coronavirus, increased from last week's level. Tragically, the US reported more deaths with coronavirus each of the past four weeks than during any other time of the pandemic.
• Vaccinations accelerated in the US last week, with 7.6 million Americans receiving a first dose and another 1.5 million receiving a second dose. Thus far, 24.7 million Americans have received one dose, and another 4.3 million have received two doses.
• Through seventeen weeks, the 2020/2021 flu season has proven far milder than each of the past six seasons. By this point in the season, we should be nearing peak infections. Instead, flu visits are barely above levels seen during the non-peak season. At the comparable time during the 2019-20 and 2017-18 seasons, flu visits were 4.6x and 5.5x higher respectively than they were last week.

 

[bikeama]

Interesting interview with Dr. Michael Osterholm on Meet the Press this morning. He thinks it is time to go to just one shot for those 65+ to save lives from the coming wave of the UK variant.

 

[brichter]

Interesting interview with Dr. Michael Osterholm on Meet the Press this morning. He thinks it is time to go to just one shot for those 65+ to save lives from the coming wave of the UK variant.

Whatever happened with the high efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine when given 50% first dose? Was that an anomaly?

 

[Climber]

Whatever happened with the high efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine when given 50% first dose? Was that an anomaly?

TBH, I have never trusted Pfizer's efficacy claims ever since they magically jumped up to match Maderna's numbers after stating a smaller number just a few days before.

After working in Biotech it became overwhelmingly obvious that all of Big Pharma's morals and ethics center around maximizing profits. They will lie, cheat and steal to whatever extent they feel they can get away with, and with everything rushed and a ton of corners cut to get the vaccines to market you can absolutely bet that the numbers were fudged. I would bet a lot that those numbers came, pretty much in their entirety out of the marketing department and not the science department.

 

[DataDan]

I don't see anything that says "total cummulative." Are you referring to the chart ctwo posted?

The chart in question came from here at Worldometers. Elsewhere at the Worldometers site, the term active cases is defined:

By removing deaths and recoveries from total cases, we get "currently infected cases" or "active cases" (cases still awaiting for an outcome).​

However, California does not report recoveries. It is not an element found in the "cases" download on the Department of Public Health data page.

Nor do California recoveries appear in the COVID Tracking Project download, though other states do report them.

Thus, the Worldometers "active cases" data for California is estimated somehow.

If there were 1.7 million active cases in California as Worldometers reports, that would be equal to all of the new cases reported since December 12, seven weeks ago.

There have been roughly 400,000 news cases reported in the past two weeks. Presumably, that count is from positive PCR tests. However, since PCR is testing for the presence of a unique COVID viral RNA sequence--not necessarily active virus--and is not a quantitative measure, it is somewhat of a leap to infer the same number of contagious victims.

 

[Yakoo752]

• The US "only" vaccinated 1 million people yesterday, a number suppressed by the widespread storm. The total vaccinated reached 32.2 million, with 6.2 million Americans now having received two doses of the Covid-19 vaccine;
• Despite yesterday's low numbers, the vaccination pace has quickened in the past two weeks. Early in January, vaccinations only exceeded the original "100 million doses in 100 days" pace a single time; it has done so now on twelve consecutive days;
  
• Model prediction/speculation suggest that the US could reach 60% immunity by the end of May, 70% by early July, and 80% by early August. Public health experts suggest that we could achieve herd immunity somewhere between 60% and 80%. NOTE, this does not take into consideration that kids under 16 can NOT receive a vaccine at this time, approximately 20% of the US population;
  
• New daily cases are free-falling in the US and across the world. The US 7-day rate dropped by more than 40% in the past three weeks; outside the US, this rate declined nearly 25% during this time;
  
• Rates have tumbled in hard-hit Arkansas, California, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, and West Virginia;
  
• Covid-19 hospitalizations plunged across the country: Covid-19 hospital census fell by nearly 50,000 patients in the last four weeks. These patients occupied only 30% of US hospital beds yesterday, compared to 40% earlier in January. Rates hover above 60% in Arizona and New York; above 50% in California, Connecticut, Georgia, and Nevada;
  
• Deaths reported with coronavirus have not budged from the tragically-high levels seen over the last three weeks. These should ease soon, given the drop in new cases detected in January. Model predictions indicate over 4,000 deaths per day throughout the week
  
• Feb 7, Super Bowl, could be our next vector event.

 

[Climber]

Things are looking up! Finally! :thumbup

Yeah, the Superbowl could be a spreading event. I personally think that Spring Break could be our next major driver. The potential exists for people to try to make up for a year of being single/restricted/etc and run wild. The stimulus checks could be hitting just in time for booking hotel rooms and flights.

 

[Yakoo752]

Things are looking up! Finally! :thumbup

Yeah, the Superbowl could be a spreading event. I personally think that Spring Break could be our next major driver. The potential exists for people to try to make up for a year of being single/restricted/etc and run wild. The stimulus checks could be hitting just in time for booking hotel rooms and flights.

People were lined up buying pony kegs at Total Wine, yesterday.

Agree on Spring Break but outdoor spring weather might help mitigate.

 

[GAJ]

People were lined up buying pony kegs at Total Wine, yesterday.

Hoo boy.

Thankfully the weather is decent so folks will be outside.

For the first half! :laughing:wtf

 

[Climber]

People were lined up buying pony kegs at Total Wine, yesterday.

Agree on Spring Break but outdoor spring weather might help mitigate.

Agreed, the outdoor nature of many spring break activities might be a saving grace.

But how about hookups in hotel rooms and trying to hook up at bars? There are a ton of people who have been single during the pandemic....

 

[N4teTheGreat]

People were lined up buying pony kegs at Total Wine, yesterday.

If I'm buying a pony keg that doesn't mean I'm sharing :staRang

It's probably a good thing that I was never good at brewing beer and don't have space to buy a kegerator.

 

[Yakoo752]

If I'm buying a pony keg that doesn't mean I'm sharing :staRang

It's probably a good thing that I was never good at brewing beer and don't have space to buy a kegerator.

Just because I'm buying a GIANT TV at Costco tomorrow, doesn't mean I am not going to return it in 89 days either...

but they know, you know they know

:laughing

 

[brichter]

Just because I'm buying a GIANT TV at Costco tomorrow, doesn't mean I am not going to return it in 89 days either...

but they know, you know they know

:laughing

That's how I got my 65" OLED... bought it for almost $2000 off as an open box returned after SB Sunday. :laughing:laughing:laughing:thumbup

 

[Yakoo752]

The burden on US hospitals has tempered in the last month and should diminish further this month:

• Covid-19 patient census dropped by 41,000 in four weeks (31%). Yesterday's census was lower than on any day since November 27;
• The number of ICU and ventilator patients fell by about 25% in the past four weeks;
• Four weeks ago, Arizona, California, and Nevada devoted more than 70% of inpatient beds to Covid-19 patients; As of yesterday, these states cut this to less than 60%; New York committed more than 60% of its beds to Covid-19 patients yesterday, the only state above this rate. For the US, this rate fell to 29%, from 42% four weeks ago;
• Projected hospital admissions plummet during February in every state except Vermont, according to the ensemble forecast published by the CDC yesterday; for the US, projected admissions drop 30% this month.

Vaccinations picked up yesterday, but the impact thus far on immunity remains low:

• The US vaccinated 1.3 million people yesterday; to date, we have administered 32.5 million doses. Nearly 7 million Americans have received two doses;
• While the US is increasing it's 7 day vaccination average (v 1.2M last week) the number of people receiving their second dose is low (300k). This could suggest people are not returning for their second dose. Accuracy in data is still questionable;
• With the lag between vaccination and immunity, only 3% of Americans may have gained immunity via vaccination thus far; Alaska and West Virginia are setting the pace here, with 5.6% and 5% of residents immune via vaccination, respectively.

Estimated immunity is rising across the US, but herd immunity is still months away:

• For the US, estimated immunity is nearing 29%;
• South Dakota leads the country, with estimated immunity reaching 44%; North Dakota is at 40%;
• Estimated immunity exceeds one-in-three residents in Arizona, Arkansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Wisconsin;
• These estimates assume that immunity is sustainable, even as new variants emerge.

Testing for Covid-19 reflects the drop in new infections:

• Test volume dropped each of the past two weeks, receding about 13% in that time;
• The test-positive rate improved, however, dropping by more than 35% in the past three weeks;
• Could these reflect diminishing suspicion of possible infections and fewer Covid-19 like symptoms?

New cases continue falling in the US:

• The 7-day new case rate has declined twenty-two straight days; yesterday's rate was lower than any day since November 12;
• This rate has declined 44% in the past four weeks; during this time, the rate outside the US has fallen 25%;
• Rates have declined in every state since early-January. States hardest hit in early-January - Arizona, Arkansas, California, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah, and West Virginia - have made remarkable progress since. South Carolina and Texas now have the highest rates in the country.

Deaths with Covid-19 remain too high but, these may have begun to decline:

• Deaths averaged 3,150 per day over the past week, down 8% week-over-week;
• Deaths should decline further in the coming weeks, reflecting the declining cases over the past three weeks.

 

[berth]

Thanks so much for your summaries, Yakoo

 

[N4teTheGreat]

Thanks so much for your summaries, Yakoo

Agreed, I check this forum every day to see the updates.

 

[bojangle]

Thanks so much for your summaries, Yakoo

Agreed, I check this forum every day to see the updates.

X eleventy billion. :thumbup

 

[Yakoo752]

appreciate it, all.

It's been an education in on the fly statistics and modeling... AND if I am lucky, I get to write it up as an academic paper and use it as credit towards my masters thesis/program :thumbup

I try not to share my model work and I do not share deaths here because I don't find it wholly appropriate nor material to a function of impacts to normal day life (which is the primary focus of this thread, imho)...

My prediction model had a ~4.5% variance re: death count, which means, it was ~95.5% accurate. Anything above 90% is really good, so I'll sadly take this as a win.

With that said, death prediction estimates for the next few weeks are ~3,350/day ending this week (Thurs-Fri) and then will drop to ~2,900/day, ~2,300/day, and then ~1,950/day by the end of February.

I won't predict past this month as Super Sunday will likely throw the current model off.

Stay diligent in the simple things... it appears to help.