~Vaccinations and Immunity~
This week's deep freeze and heavy snowstorms wreaked havoc with the country's vaccination efforts. The US administered 1.2 million fewer doses this week than last - the equivalent of missing a day's worth of jabs. Nonetheless, the 10.4 million jabs were the second-highest weekly total since we began vaccinating people in late-December.
Eight weeks into the process, the US has administered more than 60 million doses, fully inoculating more than 17 million Americans. An estimated nearly one-third of Americans - 106 million - have some protection from Covid-19, either via Injection or prior infection.
~Infections~
Covid-19 infections are free-falling in the US since peaking in early-January. Detected cases plunged for the sixth straight week and are only one-third of what was identified at the beginning of the year. Estimated actual infections - most infections still go undetected - dropped by 75% in the last six weeks and were lower than at any time since early-October.
Most states participated in the decline in new cases this past week: Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming bucked the trend yet, new cases increased only marginally (33 to 541) week-over-week in these states. Texas (31,200 fewer) and California (27,900 fewer) paced the states seeing declining new cases week-over-week.
~Testing~
Testing results back-up this view of declining infections: Demand for testing fell by more than 25% from mid-December to this past week. Test-positivity dropped last week below the World Health Organization guideline (5%) - the first time we have bested this standard since mid-October. Last week, twenty tests were required to detect a single new case; in early-January, this had fallen to just 7.
~Hospital Resources~
Since the pandemic first broke, protecting the health care system from collapse has been of paramount importance. For several days in April, Covid-19 inpatients exceeded hospital bed capacity in Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York. More recently, hospitals in Arizona, California, and Utah faced similar existential crises. Hospitals full of Covid-19 patients not only stress our caregivers and critical supplies and equipment, but this situation also crowds out people needing care for other diseases and illnesses.
Covid-19 hospital occupancy has been cut in half in the past six weeks, with fewer Covid-19 patients in the hospital last week than any time since mid-November. Covid-19 patients in ICUs and on ventilators have similarly dropped in this time. Projected Covid-19 patient census falls for at least the next several weeks, following the pattern of declining infections.
While declining Covid-19 inpatients eased the healthcare system's stress recently, a milder-than-normal flu season benefited the system as well. Typically, influenza cases drive hospital admissions throughout the winter. Many observers feared that even a regular flu season, in combination with Covid-19, could break the health care system. Instead, we have experienced the mildest flu season in many years. Flu visits normally would have peaked two weeks ago. Visits that week were 85% lower than for the comparable week last year and in the 2017-18 season.
~Deaths With Coronavirus~
Tragically, we have lost too many people to coronavirus. This week's report of life expectancy declining by a full year troubles all of us.
Because of this, we find some comfort that deaths have now declined four straight weeks. Indeed, fewer of our friends and family passed away with Covid-19 this past week than any week since the first of December.
arty
