Sweden took a relatively unique approach to Covid and I feared the worst...

[bojangle]

Not the best choice of source but literally the first thing I found...
https://calmatters.org/health/2020/04/debunking-bakersfield-doctors-covid-spread-conclusions/

There is not enough time in the world to keep up with all the nonsense that's being portrayed as science.

If I find something better I will post it.

This was a nice quote from the article.

In a rare statement late today, the American College of Emergency Physicians and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine declared they ” emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Messihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical societies and are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19. As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public’s health.”

If that isn't a strong rejection by peers, I don't know what is. People like it because it's what they want to hear and it's from doctors. Never mind the science.

I was told twice by call nurses in contra costa county (Contra Costa Regional Medical Center and John Muir respectively) that i was ONLY allowed to get a test if I had "Severe respiratory symptoms." Same verbiage both times so their responses were rehearsed. And I've heard the same thing throughout the state. I've heard it on BBC where anchormen were blasting the NHS. Etc.
Tried to find the video but here's the criteria for the NHS: https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-25...-covid19-princecharles-charles-camilla-royal/

Yup. The criteria for testing came from the CDC. There wasn't enough testing to go around, so medical providers had to adhere to their strict criteria. The criteria has since changed as more testing capacity is available.

ALL testing done is based on those with symptoms. Not just that one clinic. Testing has been so flawed up to this point that the recent study on antibodies in Santa Clara and Los Angeles shows the actual infection rate i 50-80 times higher than the previous testing suggested. The more testing is done, the more positive cases are found and the severity of covid-19 continues to drop.

The doctors don't extrapolate their test of 5k in their clinics to "The general population" of any further than Kent County. I dont know where this narrative came from that these doctors are telling everyone including NY to open up. That isnt the case.

Those antibody studies were flawed and not peer reviewed. Dr_SLO has already covered this.

 

[bojangle]

Climber and a police officer here have fully debunked these two Doctors. For one thing the doctors have a business so they have an agenda and they are also trying to convey a "message" according to Climber. I got fooled by it too.

Well, my judgement on this is backed by the medical and scientific communities.

In a rare statement late today, the American College of Emergency Physicians and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine declared they ” emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Messihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical societies and are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19. As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public’s health.”

That's a pretty strongly worded message.

https://calmatters.org/health/2020/04/debunking-bakersfield-doctors-covid-spread-conclusions/

It also appears their YouTube video was taken down.

 

[Bumpits]

Case fatality is greater than flu.

That was another point they brought up. According to the DO in the video, when a patient comes in with flu-like symptoms and dies of a stroke, the clinician will write down the cause of death as the stroke, not the flu. If a patient comes in for covid-19 and dies of a stroke, clinicians are being asked to write down the cause of death as covid-19. That alone would throw the numbers off.

If that isn't a strong rejection by peers, I don't know what is. People like it because it's what they want to hear and it's from doctors. Never mind the science.

Not really. All hospitals in this country are for-profit. Even the testing isn't free. And my point is that their level of statistical accuracy is consistent with everyone else's, so at least they have that going for them. You could say the same thing about all the other testing. America is full of asthmatic, diabetic, immunocompromised, or just plain old workers who don't want the economy to leave them behind. All of those people may be peddling a certain narrative as well. You can't think about or give a shit WHY people say what they say because everyone is selfish. You just have to look at the supporting evidence and ask if it's the best we've got to work with.

 

[Dr_SLO]

That was another point they brought up. According to the DO in the video, when a patient comes in with flu-like symptoms and dies of a stroke, the clinician will write down the cause of death as the stroke, not the flu. If a patient comes in for covid-19 and dies of a stroke, clinicians are being asked to write down the cause of death as covid-19. That alone would throw the numbers off.

That's why the CDC reports estimated influenza cases and deaths each year. The association of influenza with other causes of death are factored into the CDC's calculations. At this point in time in the US outbreak it's still uncertain how many cases of COVID are causing deaths but it's likely to be at least as accurate at influenza.

Just an aside, influenza is not a single virus. There are multiple viruses in a flu season. SARS-CoV-2 is a single virus that's causing significant deaths. And right now, the epidemiology for SARS-CoV-2 is very different compared to influenza. It's taken human intervention to change the trajectory of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak.

 

[bojangle]

That was another point they brought up. According to the DO in the video, when a patient comes in with flu-like symptoms and dies of a stroke, the clinician will write down the cause of death as the stroke, not the flu. If a patient comes in for covid-19 and dies of a stroke, clinicians are being asked to write down the cause of death as covid-19. That alone would throw the numbers off.

Well, for one, there's evidence that covid-19 is causing strokes. It's just like my AIDS example. No one dies directly from having the HIV virus. They die from another disease that AIDS allowed them to acquire.

If there's evidence that shows that covid-19 causes blood clotting that wouldn't have otherwise occurred, well then the cause of death would be covid-19, and the manner of death would be stroke. If doctors are leaving the covid-19 part out, it would not show the true picture of what's happening.

Now, for example, if the death was completely unrelated, such as a gunshot wound victim who happened to have covid-19, then no, covid-19 obviously shouldn't be listed as a cause of death. And I seriously doubt that's happening.

 

[Map8]

CalMatters is very solid journalism.

 

[Bumpits]

Well, for one, there's evidence that covid-19 is causing strokes. It's just like my AIDS example. No one dies directly from having the HIV virus. They die from another disease that AIDS allowed them to acquire.


Now, for example, if the death was completely unrelated, such as a gunshot wound victim who happened to have covid-19, then no, covid-19 obviously shouldn't be listed as a cause of death. And I seriously doubt that's happening.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4947825/#Sec10title

The flu can cause blood clotting too. The flu can cause a stroke too. But the difference is that because the flu is so endemic the cause of death written down will be the other health complications a patient had. Healthy people dying of covid are still big outliers.

 

[Archimedes]

ALL testing done is based on those with symptoms. Not just that one clinic. Testing has been so flawed up to this point that the recent study on antibodies in Santa Clara and Los Angeles shows the actual infection rate i 50-80 times higher than the previous testing suggested. The more testing is done, the more positive cases are found and the severity of covid-19 continues to drop.

Aside from the fact that there are so many things wrong with that 'study', even at those rates, in those locations the implied percentage of people infected is still incredibly low. There is no herd immunity present and it's not coming without a massive number deaths.

The solution is not everyone getting it, it's being smart in how we interact go forward.

 

[Climber]

Aside from the fact that there are so many things wrong with that 'study', even at those rates, in those locations the implied percentage of people infected is still incredibly low. There is no herd immunity present and it's not coming without a massive number deaths.

The solution is not everyone getting it, it's being smart in how we interact go forward.

Agreed.

We do need to intelligently start opening up the country again, with a smart plan and close monitoring to pull back in areas where problems cause unacceptable increases.

I haven't really seen any comprehensive plan laid out for that where they examined all of the fields of business and rated them (each type) for risk factors so that a comprehensive plan could be put in place.

Clearly there is a very wide variance in risks across all of the different business types.

 

[Snaggy]

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4947825/#Sec10title

The flu can cause blood clotting too. The flu can cause a stroke too. But the difference is that because the flu is so endemic the cause of death written down will be the other health complications a patient had. Healthy people dying of covid are still big outliers.

I thank you for the reference, enjoyed reading it. It does link hypercoagulability to Severe Influenza Pneumonia which is very uncommon in Influenza. Even the Swine Flu does not fill ICU's like this, not even close. Covid is not only going to infect many times the number of people as Influenza, it is also far more likely to kill them with viral pneumonia.

 

[Archimedes]

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4947825/#Sec10title

The flu can cause blood clotting too. The flu can cause a stroke too. But the difference is that because the flu is so endemic the cause of death written down will be the other health complications a patient had. Healthy people dying of covid are still big outliers.

If by outlier, you mean unlikely, I agree. The NY data I saw indicated that about 90 percent of the people dying had one or more serious underlying medical conditions.

A full 40+% of the deaths in LA county were in nursing homes. When you adjust for that, then adjust for the % of the population not in nursing homes, then exclude those with underlying medical conditions, the number of healthy people dying of CV19 is very low.

There are 10 million people in LA county and 1,000 CV deaths. Knock out the 400+ in nursing homes and you have less than 600 in the general population. Even if every single one of them were a middle aged healthy person, which we know for sure is absolutely not the case, said resident there has had a 6/1000ths of 1 percent chance of dying of CV19. 6/1000's of 1 percent. I'd hazard there are far more likely ways to die in LA.

 

[Lonster]

Can we all agree that without large scale testing of 'healthy' people, people NOT showing symptoms, we still have no idea what the infection rate is, and therefore all the numbers pertaining to death rate/percentage are nothing more than guesses?

 

[Bumpits]

Can we all agree that without large scale testing of 'healthy' people, people NOT showing symptoms, we still have no idea what the infection rate is, and therefore all the numbers pertaining to death rate/percentage are nothing more than guesses?

Yeah that's more or less my point. We're not 100% certain on deaths and severe cases, but we have a pretty good idea. And every new positive test result drops the rate of severe cases. There is also a very strong flu this season that's leading to more deaths than usual as well.

It's incredibly worrisome that youtube just announced it deleted the video of the doctors from Bakersfield. When the data doesn't fit the model you don't delete the data.

 

[Dr_SLO]

Can we all agree that without large scale testing of 'healthy' people, people NOT showing symptoms, we still have no idea what the infection rate is, and therefore all the numbers pertaining to death rate/percentage are nothing more than guesses?

Data are starting to emerge where more precise calculations can be made. For example, there are reports that 20% of people in NYC have been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 as determined by serology tests. The current toll for COVID related deaths for NYC stand at 17,904. Extrapolating that to the population of NYC, 8.5M, that works out at a case fatality rate of 1%, pretty close to what has been reported globally and 10 times greater than seasonal influenza.

Of course the numbers can't be precise nor extrapolated fully to other parts of the US, that would be foolish. However, NYC demonstrates a classic worst case scenario, one that has been repeated globally and why scientists and medics are rightly concerned about SARS-CoV-2. Agreed, that this is a dynamic situation but the numbers at this stage in the outbreak are becoming less than guesses. Numbers for each flu season are best guesses, they're not precise, but they are still used to guide policy.

 

[tuxumino]

sorry the discussion about letting people die brought this song to my head.

You can drive my motorcar
It's insured to thirty thou
Kill them all if you wish

Stairway to the stars, I think I'll write good health to you
Stairway to the stars, we got better things to do

You can have my autograph
I think I'll sign it good health to you
Upon the cast, your broken arm

Stairway to the stars, I think I'll write good health to you
Stairway to the stars, I hope you heal up real quick
Stairway to the stars.

 

[Lonster]

SNIP... Agreed, that this is a dynamic situation but the numbers at this stage in the outbreak are becoming less than guesses. Numbers for each flu season are best guesses, they're not precise, but they are still used to guide policy.

"Less than guesses"? Isn't that still a guess? Yes.

"Numbers for each flu season are best guesses, they're not precise, but they are still used to guide policy". Policy? You mean which injection to give people? As policy, we do NOT close the country/world for the flu because we have become accustomed to it, despite tens of thousands of deaths each year in this country. The only difference that - I - see is exactly what those 2 doctors said: This is something with a new name, so it's (as) scary (as the media can make it).

 

[Climber]

"Less than guesses"? Isn't that still a guess? Yes.

"Numbers for each flu season are best guesses, they're not precise, but they are still used to guide policy". Policy? You mean which injection to give people? As policy, we do NOT close the country/world for the flu because we have become accustomed to it, despite tens of thousands of deaths each year in this country. The only difference that - I - see is exactly what those 2 doctors said: This is something with a new name, so it's (as) scary (as the media can make it).

If we had not implemented SIP, there would have been significantly more cases, leading to the hospitals getting overwhelmed, leading to a significantly higher death rate.

Now, one thing that the over-reaction crowd is cheerfully overlooking while claiming that many of these people were a sickness away from dying, well that's also true of the flue, if you use the fuzzy logic that some of you are using, the flue mortality rate is actually probably 1/10th of the accepted rate.

The thing is that the naysayers are playing fast and loose with the numbers and practicing willful ignorance of other factors, like the fact that SIP did significantly lower the numbers.

You can with whatever you want, but science rarely lies.

 

[bojangle]

Yeah that's more or less my point. We're not 100% certain on deaths and severe cases, but we have a pretty good idea. And every new positive test result drops the rate of severe cases. There is also a very strong flu this season that's leading to more deaths than usual as well.

It's incredibly worrisome that youtube just announced it deleted the video of the doctors from Bakersfield. When the data doesn't fit the model you don't delete the data.

YouTube is actively removing videos about SARS-COv-2 that conflict with the scientific and medical community's science based theories.

 

[Lonster]

I'm not trying to argue, but instead, sharing my different take on this.

If we had not implemented SIP, there would have been significantly more cases, leading to the hospitals getting overwhelmed, leading to a significantly higher death rate.

This is nothing more than a guess/speculation. We will never be able to test enough people to know how many were infected, how many built antibodies, and how many never even caught a sniff of it. Sheer speculation with no science.

You can with whatever you want, but science rarely lies.

Every model and best guess so far have been a lie based on NO science. Continually changing (lowering) 'models'. Each one a lie, albeit slowly, very slowly getting closer to the truth.
Here's my question: Why is your, or ANYBODY else's best guess any more credible that the 2 doctors? The answer is: They're not any more credible. We are still at a point where we each choose to believe what we want to believe because there is no hard data. Certainly not near enough to call any of these numbers facts or science. Speculation/hope/models/projections based on extrapolation/etc., is not science.

 

[Lonster]

YouTube is actively removing videos about SARS-COv-2 that conflict with the scientific and medical community's science based theories.

:laughing:rofl

science based theories = best guess = not science.