Luck, don't buy into it.

Nemo Brinker

Tonight we ride
The point of this thread: Shit can and does happen, but with a positive paradigm shift (doing every damn thing you can to prevent a crash, from sleeping well the night before to setting tire pressure properly to being up on your swerving and braking skills), training, and analysis, you may find that a hell of a lot less shit happens.
 

VaderSS

Skill Seeker
Here are two of my own accidents which I'll use as a demonstration of what I am talking about;

I was driving a Mazda 626 down a busy road. A truck came across the intersection in front of me. Traffic blocked my veiw so I did not see the truck until it was too late. I struck the truck in a T-Bone fashion after threshold-braking from the moment I saw the truck.

I was listed as not at fault in the accident, with the other driver being 100% at fault. I recieved insurance to replace my totaled car.

I could have said, "I was not at fault, she blew the intersection without clearing it first."

I did not do that though. I thought, What could I have done differently?

As I came up on this intersection, I removed my foot from the gas and covered the brake. This caused me to slow below the speed limit, and allowed a much quicker reaction time. I credit that with saving the passenger of the truck from injury or death. That is what I did right.

What did I do wrong? I knew that there would be people wanting to get across this intersection, and that it was almost blind. That is why I covered the brake. What I shoud have done was slowed down to a jogging pace. That would have given me the ability to stop without hitting the truck. That is what I do now, in such circumstances, and I have avoided 2 accidents in the past 12 years, because of it. I would not have been at fault in either of those near-misses, but instead of ruining the day, they were a momentary blip in my radar.


My last accident occurred when I was moving out here. I was in my '96 Impala SS with the Goldwing on a trailer behind me. About 30 miles from Phoenix, I was rear-ended when traffic came to a halt. I was listed as not at fault with the other driver being listed at fault. Her insurance repaired the Impala, the trailer, and the Wing.

What did I do wrong here? First, I had decided that I would tool along in the right-hand lane and not be impatient with traffic. I broke from this plan only moments before the accident. The traffic in the right-hand lane was slowly coming to a stop, and the traffic in the left-lane was still moving along nicely. I signaled my lane-change and merged with no drama. There was about a 200' gap when I moved into the left-lane.

Moments after I changed lanes, the traffic in the left lane came to an abrubt halt. I could not get into the right lane because it was stopped. I braked to bring myself to a stop, and checked my mirrors to make sure the person behind me was able to stop. He was falling back from me, so I switched my vision to the front, and saw that I was closing with the car in front of me, but that I would be stopped before I came close to them.

Just as I switched my scan to the mirrors, I saw a sideview full of the car that had been behind me, and he came up next to me. I was now boxed in. A moment later, I felt the impact as the second car behind me hit the trailer.

What could I have done differently? The biggest thing is that I should have stuck to my plan of staying in the right lane. There would have been no wreck if I had done that. Could there have been a wreck? Sure, but lane-changes are a risk and the left lane tends to be filled with people trying to get somewhere quickly. It is a riskier lane to be in. I have seen that proven time and again.

My other option was to have taken the emergency lane when I was making the rapid stop, but there was no reason to in that instant. I can say that I am now much quicker to take the emergency lane than I was before. That may help me one day.
 
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Carlo

Kickstart Enthusiast
I went around and around over this in the skill is overrated thread.

Luck is a factor, but in nearly every crash that I've ever been involved in, or heard about, there was something that the crash victim could have done that might have prevented it. In the case of my own crashes, each one of them was preventable. The only part luck played for me was that I wasn't killed or badly hurt. In other words, I feel that I had good luck in those situations. I've never felt that the crashes occurred because of bad luck.
 

ThumperX

Well-known member
I went around and around over this in the skill is overrated thread.

Luck is a factor, but in nearly every crash that I've ever been involved in, or heard about, there was something that the crash victim could have done that might have prevented it. In the case of my own crashes, each one of them was preventable. The only part luck played for me was that I wasn't killed or badly hurt. In other words, I feel that I had good luck in those situations. I've never felt that the crashes occurred because of bad luck.

Agree :thumbup

Also disagree that deer are a forgivable accident. If I hit that deer today I seriously believe my "luck" would be changed. I don't think the bike or myself would have sustained the injuries we did; who knows, that little sucker might not have ended up dead.
 

acer66

Well-known member
Here's my list that keeps me lucky.

(1) Never ride after drinking, even a small amount of alcohol
(2) Leave the ego at home. Don't race cars or other riders.
(3) Never daydream while riding. I've done it in the car, but make a point to stay focused on the bike.
(4) Ride defensively. Ie do not protect lane position against an aggressive driver. Be Evasive rather than aggressive.
(5) Don't flip the bird to a driver. To use an analogy : You're bringing a knife to gun fight.

That is very good advice, to further validate point no (3) I went down a 10 mph turn with my head in the clouds and broke my Collar bone in a way so it needed surgery which took me out of work for 3 month.
 

Marcoose

50-50
Awesome post. Thanks!

Things in my don't-count-on-luck arsenal:

1. ATGATT; no compromise
2. Check the bike before riding
3. Solo, never a passenger
4. Daytime riding only, preferably before the zombies start driving to cafes and churches
5. Always scanning the road; 2 blocks, 1/2 mile, or as far as I can see
6. Always ride my ride, never race Speedy
7. Know my limits and come home before I get tired
8. Only ride if I'm feeling it; there's a tomorrow

Cheers!

Marc.
 

adoliver

Well-known member
Agree :thumbup

Also disagree that deer are a forgivable accident. If I hit that deer today I seriously believe my "luck" would be changed. I don't think the bike or myself would have sustained the injuries we did; who knows, that little sucker might not have ended up dead.

What would you do differently if a deer jumped in front of you?
 

Diabla

Undeniably Diabla
ah found it in 1Rider section .... heres for all those NON crashing guys :twofinger

Funny.
I'm sure this doesn't apply to everyone but, I have a similar attitude about auto drivers who've never had an accident. When they brag about that, I always wonder and sometimes ask them 'yeah but, how many accidents has your defensive driving caused?'!
:twofinger
 

adoliver

Well-known member
Funny.
I'm sure this doesn't apply to everyone but, I have a similar attitude about auto drivers who've never had an accident. When they brag about that, I always wonder and sometimes ask them 'yeah but, how many accidents has your defensive driving caused?'!
:twofinger

Out of curiosity what defensive driving techniques do you feel cause accidents?
 

Burning1

I'm scareoused!
Some attitudes commonly held by motorcyclists contribute to giving up too early:
  • Fatalism. "If it's your time, there's nothing you can do about it."
  • Crashes are random events.
  • Crashes usually can't be prevented.
The antidote to those attitudes, and to giving up too early, is understanding how crashes can occur and never accepting the inevitability of a crash. If you think a crash is inevitable, it is. If you think you can prevent it, you probably can.

That's not to say that all crashes are, in fact, preventable. They aren't. But you'll never know if you give up.

To a degree, I've found that accepting a crash as a possible outcome in an emergency situation can be beneficial: "I may rear end that vehicle, but I know how much pressure I can apply before this wheel locks up. And dammit, I'm not going to apply any more pressure than that, even if it means hitting the car."

I need to react with all my skill and experience, but I also need to keep in mind that in some situations, a series of bad decisions has brought me to a point that it's too late to avoid the crash completely. At that point, I have two options: panic, or execution of my best crash avoidance techniques.

To me, accepting a collision doesn't mean giving up. In almost every situation I was sure I was going to crash, responding with control has saved my bacon.
 

Misti

Well-known member
The best way to avoid "fight or flight" is to have planned for as many possible situations as possible, and to have practiced the techniques required to avoid them.

This quote above to me simplifies all the information that is in this thread, and I think the most important part of it is that not only have you planned for possible situations, but you have learned AND practiced the techniques to avoid them. IMO this is SO important in the prevention of crashes. Continuous learning and improving your riding skills and practice in how to avoid panicking in bad situations.

I know that for me, having the skills available to deal with unexpected situations like, a rear end slide, sliding in wet weather, emergency stops, tank slappers etc, have helped me prevent some crashes in the past. Whenever I get the chance I practice my skills so that when a situation emerges, I am prepared and I don't panic.

I don't think that luck plays a big role, it's more about being prepared and being able to react in the best possible way.

Misti :ride
 

tzrider

Write Only User
Staff member
The best way to avoid "fight or flight" is to have planned for as many possible situations as possible, and to have practiced the techniques required to avoid them.

This is a good thought. The obvious limits to this approach are having failed to anticipate a certain type of scenario.

What are some scenarios people have planned for? Some examples follow; some common, some obscure. All have happened to someone; most have happened to me:

  • Car turning left in front of you
  • Deer runs out in front of you
  • You're stopped and a car behind you isn't going to stop in time
  • Sand across your lane in a blind turn
  • Tree branch falls in front of you (a nod to Aluisious)
  • Antifreeze on a steel plate on a city street
  • Hawk flies from a fencepost, hits you in the hand and puts you into a tank-slapper (this really happened)

A couple of the above are similar, but have unique properties that might make a difference in the tactics you would employ to increase your odds of making it through.

Other scenarios? If we get a decent list, a logical next step would be to determine which skills and tactics would help you avoid grief.
 

Burning1

I'm scareoused!
Other scenarios? If we get a decent list, a logical next step would be to determine which skills and tactics would help you avoid grief.

I find myself on the other side of the rear ender scenario a lot of time. I tend to look very far down the road and over-rely on my ability to predict how traffic is going to flow. I've been in several bad situations where cars have unexpectedly stopped and I have reacted appropriately due to my inability to see conditions ahead of the car in front of me.
 

pahhhoul

poserific!
I don't believe in luck, I believe in skillz. :thumbup
said the woman with mad skillz!

and when I do actually use some of my skills, when I accidentally target fixate on an object and I think: lean more, point that shoulder and look where you wanna go.
and then I get through that turn instead of running off the road....
damn! I feel like a lucky basturd when that happens. :teeth

so in regards to luck, I'm too poor to buy it, but I'm glad when I have it!
 
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Burning1

I'm scareoused!
I don't believe in luck, but I do believe in statistics. I try to reduce the chances of a 'life altering event' while riding as much as possible without loosing what I enjoy about the ride.
 

DataAngel

Well-known member
I agree with you VaderSS, a couple of years or so ago I gave up on hope and luck. I decided that no matter what happens, its MY own self that makes the biggest impact in MY life. So rather than sit idly by and let life happen, I make life happen.

Since I dont believe in luck... I got into riding accepting the risks, just like anything else I do that is dangerous(rock climbing, mt biking, etc...). The thing is trying to manage the risks, I am a hands on learner and often will go for it so to speak. I had close calls and came out fine, but it slowed me down and taught me that I HAD to get better at riding and learn new skills.

To rely on luck as many have said only takes the responsibility away from the ignorant rider, when there is no reason to do so, practice, practice, practice and ride safely. Sometimes things happen you cannot control, but if you at least focus on and work on those things you CAN control, then you are leaving a lot less up to "luck".

Don't get me wrong, I still find taking certain risks while riding is worth it, if I didn't I'd probably stop riding as its the thrill of the turns and the view that keeps me going! Yes I do realize this last statement may sound 180degrees from what ive been saying, but I swear its not. For example, I used to love riding at night on windy roads, thats not to say I have stopped or will stop, it just means that my acceptance of this particular risk is far less than before.
 
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11B

Infantry, Army, 1991-2004
There's nothing wrong with hoping you'll be lucky when you've used all your skill and experience to react in the best possible way after an uncontrollable and unlucky event puts you in harms way.
 
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