Marvin Radtke toasts the opening of the Friends and Neighbors bar following the Wisconsin Supreme Court's decision to strike down Gov. Tony Evers' safer-at-home order amid the coronavirus pandemic, Wednesday, May 13, 2020, in Appleton, Wis.
Appleton, Wisconsin, comprises small slices of 3 counties: Calumet, Outagamie, and Winnebago. Combined, they are home to a population of 400,000. In the past month, 211 new COVID-19 cases have struck--7 per day.
Assuming Marvin's odds of catching it are no worse than his neighbors', there's less than 1 in 50,000 chance his reckless night out will make him a COVID victim. For comparison, the average Bay Area motorcyclist on an average day of riding has twice that chance of crashing.
Data from COVID-19 Historical Data Table, Wisconsin Department of Health Services.