Georgia: The nation's test case

Climber

Well-known member
Yep

it's going to get interesting

Florida has restricted all data from being released. Only person who can release data is the Governor.
Who'd have thought, just 6 months ago, that this kind of behavior would be happening in the US so openly?

Buckle your seatbelts, I think things are going to get much worse.
 

GAJ

Well-known member
On Wisconsin, On Wisconsin, stand up Badgers sing.
"Forward" is our driving spirit, loyal voices ring.
On Wisconsin, On Wisconsin, raise her glowing flame.
Stand, fellows, let us now salute her name.


https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/After-Wisconsin-court-ruling-crowds-descend-on-15269413.php

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Climber

Well-known member
I know that Nebraska stopped disclosing cases in Meat Processing plants.

There have been several stories about that, the slippery slope has already started.
 

bojangle

FN # 40
Staff member
I know that Nebraska stopped disclosing cases in Meat Processing plants.

There have been several stories about that, the slippery slope has already started.

Sadly, we aren't much better than China, though we should be.

Investigative journalists are still free to uncover stories and report on the truth, we if can trust any if them.
 

DataDan

Mama says he's bona fide
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Marvin Radtke toasts the opening of the Friends and Neighbors bar following the Wisconsin Supreme Court's decision to strike down Gov. Tony Evers' safer-at-home order amid the coronavirus pandemic, Wednesday, May 13, 2020, in Appleton, Wis.

Appleton, Wisconsin, comprises small slices of 3 counties: Calumet, Outagamie, and Winnebago. Combined, they are home to a population of 400,000. In the past month, 211 new COVID-19 cases have struck--7 per day.

Assuming Marvin's odds of catching it are no worse than his neighbors', there's less than 1 in 50,000 chance his reckless night out will make him a COVID victim. For comparison, the average Bay Area motorcyclist on an average day of riding has twice that chance of crashing.

Data from COVID-19 Historical Data Table, Wisconsin Department of Health Services.
 

Climber

Well-known member
460x460.jpg

Marvin Radtke toasts the opening of the Friends and Neighbors bar following the Wisconsin Supreme Court's decision to strike down Gov. Tony Evers' safer-at-home order amid the coronavirus pandemic, Wednesday, May 13, 2020, in Appleton, Wis.

Appleton, Wisconsin, comprises small slices of 3 counties: Calumet, Outagamie, and Winnebago. Combined, they are home to a population of 400,000. In the past month, 211 new COVID-19 cases have struck--7 per day.

Assuming Marvin's odds of catching it are no worse than his neighbors', there's less than 1 in 50,000 chance his reckless night out will make him a COVID victim. For comparison, the average Bay Area motorcyclist on an average day of riding has twice that chance of crashing.

Data from COVID-19 Historical Data Table, Wisconsin Department of Health Services.
How do you know that he will only come in contact with 1 person on his night out? What if there are 50 people in the bar, each of which he could catch the virus from? Using 7 (infected per day) times 14 (days, very conservative estimate of how long they are courageous) times 50 (people he is likely to come in contact with) divided by 400,000, he has roughly a 1/80 chance of getting infected.

Where are my numbers wrong?
 

GAJ

Well-known member
How do you know that he will only come in contact with 1 person on his night out? What if there are 50 people in the bar, each of which he could catch the virus from? Using 7 (infected per day) times 14 (days, very conservative estimate of how long they are courageous) times 50 (people he is likely to come in contact with) divided by 400,000, he has roughly a 1/80 chance of getting infected.

Where are my numbers wrong?

:laughing

And I'm sure the rest of the time while he and his friends are not at the bar they are exercising safe distancing! :laughing

But we need these kind of "risk takers" to see what the real effects of total "relaxation" are in the US truth be told.

So cheers to Marvin and his buddies; they are taking one for the team.
 

mlm

Contrarian
Appleton, Wisconsin, comprises small slices of 3 counties: Calumet, Outagamie, and Winnebago. Combined, they are home to a population of 400,000. In the past month, 211 new COVID-19 cases have struck--7 per day.

Assuming Marvin's odds of catching it are no worse than his neighbors', there's less than 1 in 50,000 chance his reckless night out will make him a COVID victim. For comparison, the average Bay Area motorcyclist on an average day of riding has twice that chance of crashing.

That logic is severely flawed in at least two ways:

1) The "confirmed case" counts are almost certainly underreported
2) I would assume Marvin at the bar has much higher odds than his neighbors social distancing at home for the past month
3) That same data shows at least 3 deaths for the past month. That would put the mortality rate over 1% ;)

But you seemingly already already know the problems with these numbers which undermines your credibility :( https://www.bayarearidersforum.com/forums/showpost.php?p=10565642&postcount=19
 
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Blankpage

alien
Yep

it's going to get interesting

Florida has restricted all data from being released. Only person who can release data is the Governor.

That's the world you live in now, ignorance being weaponized.

Taking a page from Russia and China, your leaders new strategy in the fight against covid was to direct the CDC to lower the number of covid related deaths being reported.
 
When did Texas release SIP?

Texas reports single highest daily rate increase of infections (5/17)

On a weekend none the less.
 

Climber

Well-known member
When did Texas release SIP?

Texas reports single highest daily rate increase of infections (5/17)

On a weekend none the less.
I didn't like the way the CNN tried to make this into a big 'thing'. Texas may have had their highest single day case increase, but at 59.7/million that was below the US average of 75.5/million for the same day. That isn't a surge, though it's a move in the wrong direction.

However, we don't know what the circumstances are. Have they increased testing and loosened the testing requirements?

Too many unknowns a nowhere near Nebraska's 315 new cases per million.

The news media needs to be more patient with the results and instead of jumping all over a one day increase, look at a multi-day trend.
 
I just look at the numbers.

and Alabama's is saying the same thing.

However, we don't know what the circumstances are. Have they increased testing and loosened the testing requirements?

I also look at it as a percentage of tests. They positivity rate has increased as well.

I do a five week rolling trend of these measures:
State Information
Total Tests Administered
Total Positive
Total Test Rate
Weekly Test Administered
Weekly Test Requirements
Weekly Positive
HospitalizedCurrently
Weekly Positive Test Rate
Current Hospitalization Rate
% of Available Beds

state level and county level, where available
 
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GAJ

Well-known member
Message today from my friend in Orlando.

"Maybe 30% of people wear masks.

In WFM I saw a pregnant lady with no mask, I saw two guys walk in and the former bouncer now turned covid concierge said “we have masks for you if you want them…” and they both laughed hearty manly laughs and sneered “no we do not”.

Daughter in law saw little babies out in Target."
 
Message today from my friend in Orlando.

"Maybe 30% of people wear masks.

In WFM I saw a pregnant lady with no mask, I saw two guys walk in and the former bouncer now turned covid concierge said “we have masks for you if you want them…” and they both laughed hearty manly laughs and sneered “no we do not”.

Daughter in law saw little babies out in Target."

My grandparents (80 and 95 years old) were trying to shelter it out at their home in West Palm. My grandmother ONLY going out to get necessary supplies and taking advantage of the senior hours...

They decided it was safer to drive to the family property in Park Falls WI.

We tried talking them out of it but they said it was safer. The stuff they mentioned was very similar to your friends statements.

My family in Chicago went up with supplies 48 hours prior and opened up and turned on the house. They have everything they need and family will drive up every 2 weeks with stuff so they don't have to go into town.

:laughing
 
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