Georgia: The nation's test case
- Thread starter Climber
- Start date
GAJ
Well-known member
I was really expecting those larger Southern States to have numbers rising to Northeastern large States' levels to be honest as bars/restaurants are often packed unlike here.
New York 225
Pennsylvania 173
Illinois 170
GAJ
Well-known member
Yes, that is why I mentioned Southern States that are large vs us here.
The northeast States as we all know were the sharp end of the spear so suffered most early on while they learned techniques to reduce fatality rates.
I really expected States that party like it's 1999 like Florida to have double our death rate.
How accurate are their numbers? Testing rates? Are deaths there being incorrectly attributed to other things at a higher rate than California?
Wasn't Florida trying to fudge numbers? Other southern states as well? There are lots of factors, plus possible corruption that could help explain.
Wasn't Florida trying to fudge numbers? Other southern states as well? There are lots of factors, plus possible corruption that could help explain.
Climber
Well-known member
I really hope that the Florida numbers get audited. I think they're BS and using a different standard.
GAJ
Well-known member
Anecdotal but freinds/relatives that live in Miami and in Orlando have never sent me news reports indicating overcapacity ICUs and the Miami Herald is a solid newspaper so not sure.
But yes, there have been stories of fudged numbers a while back in Florida.
I'm surprised Georgia and Texas number, while higher than ours, aren't higher still.
Abacinator
Unholy Blasphemies
I'm wondering if NC is doing something right or if they're not reporting deaths.
DataDan
Mama says he's bona fide
State fatalities per 100K population depend on both the case rate--victims who have had the disease--and the case-fatality rate--deaths per case. And case-fatality rate is highly dependent on the age distribution of state population.
At present, there isn't a lot of difference in case rate among the states mentioned:
There is a greater range in case-fatality rate:
The combination of those two is the fatality rate (very close to the numbers previously posted, but from source cited below):
As seen above, the case-fatality rate has a larger effect on fatality rate than the case rate. And much of that difference is explained by a difference in age distribution, since the elderly are much more likely to die if they contract the virus than the young. California population age distribution is distributed with the COVID data; I didn't try to find population age distributions for all of the states, but I did find Florida easily:
So Florida has a proportion of 65+ residents one-third greater than California, which will have a significant effect on case-fatality rate. In California, the case-fatality rate for 65+ is 25 times as high as the < 65 case-fatality rate. Assuming the same age-group case and case-fatality rates, California deaths would be 20% higher than they are if the state had Florida's population age distribution.
For the record, those southern states are not the COVID hotbed some might think:
Case and fatality counts from the COVID Tracking Project.
California age distribution from state Department of Public Health.
Florida population age data from the state Office of Economic and Demographic Research.
.
At present, there isn't a lot of difference in case rate among the states mentioned:
There is a greater range in case-fatality rate:
The combination of those two is the fatality rate (very close to the numbers previously posted, but from source cited below):
As seen above, the case-fatality rate has a larger effect on fatality rate than the case rate. And much of that difference is explained by a difference in age distribution, since the elderly are much more likely to die if they contract the virus than the young. California population age distribution is distributed with the COVID data; I didn't try to find population age distributions for all of the states, but I did find Florida easily:
So Florida has a proportion of 65+ residents one-third greater than California, which will have a significant effect on case-fatality rate. In California, the case-fatality rate for 65+ is 25 times as high as the < 65 case-fatality rate. Assuming the same age-group case and case-fatality rates, California deaths would be 20% higher than they are if the state had Florida's population age distribution.
For the record, those southern states are not the COVID hotbed some might think:
Case and fatality counts from the COVID Tracking Project.
California age distribution from state Department of Public Health.
Florida population age data from the state Office of Economic and Demographic Research.
.
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DataDan
Mama says he's bona fide
Very young population.
Youth would explain both the low case-fatality rate--since the elderly are much more likely to die--and low case rate--since a young person with sniffles may not be inclined to get tested.
EDIT: I was suspicious of the Infoplease data because it wasn't dated and the percentage seemed low. So I took the unpleasant alternative of trying to figure out how to get it from the US Census Bureau site.
It appears that the 65+ age group in North Carolina based on the 2019 estimate is 15.9%, very close to California. I'm still not sure I got the right answer. Check here if you're brave.
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Abacinator
Unholy Blasphemies
Indeed :thumbup
Yakoo752
USN
One of the things I have been looking is a communities mobility index as well
https://data.covid.umd.edu/
I've been monitoring this site since they stood it up. It's interesting.
and then googles monthly reports
https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
While FL is a "free for all", their index report suggests otherwise.
policy == behavior
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GAJ
Well-known member
Here in Sonoma County where I'd give folks a "B" or better for distancing/masking we are at 57 per 100k/deaths.
Dade County Florida where my brother lives is indeed more dense and likely a "C" or less on masking distancing and they are at 183/100k.
And SF and the Bay Area as a whole are doing quite well so there is that to be said for masking/distancing. :thumbup
Santa Clara County 1,523 79/100k deaths
Alameda County 1,030 63
Contra Costa County 552 49
San Mateo County 436 57
San Francisco County 345 40
Sonoma County 270 54
Santa Cruz County 155 57
Marin County (not including San Quentin State Prison) 148 57
Solano County 134 31
Napa County 58 41