Georgia: The nation's test case

[Johndicezx9]

:thumbup

If it's any consolation to archi, I've been using "Panic Porn" every chance I can in daily conversation. :laughing

 

[rothmans]

Removed for political content :wow

Why oh why would he do that???

Two weeks! sCieNce!!!

 

[GAJ]

Two weeks! sCieNce!!!

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54241580

 

[Yakoo752]

"At the moment we think the epidemic is doubling roughly every seven days.
"If, and that's quite a big if, but if that continues unabated, and this grows, doubling every seven days... if that continued you would end up with something like 50,000 cases in the middle of October per day.
"Fifty-thousand cases per day would be expected to lead a month later, so the middle of November say, to 200-plus deaths per day.
"The challenge, therefore, is to make sure the doubling time does not stay at seven days.
"That requires speed, it requires action and it requires enough in order to be able to bring that down."

Like I said. Monitor and when the growth rate exceeds acceptable levels then move to more restrictions.

Ebb and flow

If you can dodge a wrench, you can dodge Covid.

 

[GAJ]

Like I said. Monitor and when the growth rate exceeds acceptable levels then move to more restrictions.

Ebb and flow

If you can dodge a wrench, you can dodge Covid.

Being "proactive" is not considered "bad."

 

[Yakoo752]

Being "proactive" is not considered "bad."

and you're proactive by setting the ceiling low.

 

[DataDan]

Georgia vs other states today

Georgia doesn't stand out as exceptional here. Case rate decline has been better than the US average, but remains somewhat higher. Its case-fatality rate is close to the US average.

"Tri State" is New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, which achieved herd immunity in June and has had a new-case rate that is roughly flat and < 5 per 100K since then.

Data is from The COVID Tracking Project. The US total from this source is lower than from other sources, but I've used it for consistency.
.

 

[Yakoo752]

"Tri State" is New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, which achieved herd immunity in June and has had a new-case rate that is roughly flat and < 5 per 100K since then.

yeah, I don't think so

 

[rothmans]

yeah, I don't think so

Dude it's over nobody gives a shit anymore and most people are realizing this was the biggest scam ever. This covid forum is dead because no one is scared anymore of the china flu.

Indiana goes to stage 5 this weekend where everything opens up...so just wait 2 weeks there until 50,000 dead.

 

[Yakoo752]

Only time will tell.

Problem is, once you're in the shit. It's on average 56 days to get out of it.

 

[Johndicezx9]

Dude it's over nobody gives a shit anymore and most people are realizing this was the biggest scam ever. This covid forum is dead because no one is scared anymore of the china flu.

Indiana goes to stage 5 this weekend where everything opens up...so just wait 2 weeks there until 50,000 dead.

:laughing

I'm glad only your choir listens to you.... :thumbup

 

[Climber]

I agree. Let's list the States with the most deaths per million resident:

1. New Jersey 1,823
2. New York 1,706
3. Massachusetts 1,352
4. Connecticut 1,261
5. Louisiana 1,156
...
16. Georgia 622
US Average 617

Weird.

Cherry picking, as usual.
If you looked at the other part, Georgia is #5 of all states for Cases/Million.

I suspect that there has been some data handled to different standards than other states, unless it's the later surge with lessons learned from the other states that they've benefitted from. Or, it could be that they got far more of the only effective drug out there...for whatever reason.

 

[tuxumino]

don't know what you all think about Reuters but they do seem to have a lower case and death count then some. They do however indicate both cases and deaths have started to rise recently.

https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS/USA-TRENDS/dgkvlgkrkpb/index.html

New cases rose 17% to about 287,000 for the week ended Sept. 20, while deaths rose 5.5% to about 5,400 people after falling for the previous four weeks, according to a Reuters analysis of state and county reports.

Thirteen states have seen weekly infections rise for at least two weeks, up from nine states the previous week, according to the Reuters tally. In Arizona

, new cases doubled last week.

On average, more than 776 people a day died from COVID-19 last week, with deaths rising in Arkansas
, Kansas and Virginia.

To think were out of the woods seems premature to me.

 

[Johndicezx9]

To think were out of the woods seems premature to me.

Get outta here with that Panic Porn! :hand :laughing

 

[Blankpage]

Is that the latest panic porn estimate that'll be wrong as well?

Michael Osterholm said on August 11 that we were going to have 'an explosion' of cases in September that will far surpass what we saw after Memorial Day. Strangely, we have not.

And while the media is panic porning us with claims of 'big spike in the last week', the reality is that it was only due to a dip in reporting around the Labor Day holiday. If you straight line from a week before a week after, the seven day trend line of cases and deaths is down, not up. It's decline has stalled, but it's not going up yet.

But carry on. 350,000? Why not go with 500,000. With the 250,000 people that got Covid due to Sturgis :rolleyes, we could easily hit 750,000 by inauguration day. It's the new liberal math.

Cases still going down eh. Hasn’t that been you message since this thing started :laughing

Nationwide cases down to only 7 million now. They’ll likely be down even lower to just 10 million by Christmas.

 

[Johndicezx9]

"Tri State" is New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, which achieved herd immunity in June and has had a new-case rate that is roughly flat and < 5 per 100K since then.

Didn't Fauci shoot that shit down?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/09/23/fauci-finally-loses-his-patience-with-rand-paul/

Fauci added, “that in New York, it’s about 22 percent [that have tested positive]. If you believe 22 percent is herd immunity, I believe you’re alone in that.”

I guess he's not alone. :wtf

Hard to believe Rand has a medical degree, but what's not hard to believe is why his neighbor beat him up. :laughing

 

[DataDan]

Post-Sturgis surge in the Dakotas

I'm posting this reply here instead of General as a matter of principle. BARF is barely a motorcycle forum anymore, and I'm trying not to contribute to its demise.

Just a coincidence....

Secondary and tertiary infections.

So, what was the effect Sturgis on the Dakotas?

• Through 6/30, Dakotas new cases per day per 100K pop, at 5.3, were below the US average, 6.7.
  
  
• Through 6/30, Dakotas case-fatality rate (deaths/cases), at 1.6%, was much lower than the US rate, 4.6%
  
  
• Beginning July 1, Dakotas cases began to climb, presumably due to an influx of vacationers. New cases per day rose from 100 to 200 thru mid-August.
  
  
• Daily new cases then shot up in the wake of Sturgis, going from 299 on August 16 to 896 at the peak (so far) on September 18.
  
  
• However, case-fatality rate in the Dakotas since July 1, 0.7%, has been much lower than the US rate, 1.7%. Note, though, that the case-fatality lag tends to lower the Dakotas rate.
  
  
• Hospitalizations in the Dakotas are also much lower than in the US. Since July 1, the number of patients hospitalized on a given day has been 37% of daily new cases compared to 87% in the US.

My opinion: The Dakotas had a big advantage early in the pandemic because the area is rural and off the beaten path. While those factors can delay and slow the virus, they can't stop it. Arrival was inevitable, and Sturgis brought it.

However, for whatever reasons, its effect has been less severe--proportionally fewer deaths and fewer hospitalizations. Maybe they're doing a better job of protecting the vulnerable, maybe they've learned about treatment from the states hit hard earlier.


Data from The COVID Tracking Project.
.

 

[GAJ]

My opinion: The Dakotas had a big advantage early in the pandemic because the area is rural and off the beaten path. While those factors can delay and slow the virus, they can't stop it. Arrival was inevitable, and Sturgis brought it.

However, for whatever reasons, its effect has been less severe--proportionally fewer deaths and fewer hospitalizations. Maybe they're doing a better job of protecting the vulnerable, maybe they've learned about treatment from the states hit hard earlier.

60 percent of Sturgis residents did not want the Rally so I'm "guessing" they were careful before the rally and remained so after the rally??

Yeah, General seems to have lost its moto edge just as I was losing mine as I ride my bicycle every week but haven't ridden my now single moto in a year.

But I did ride regularly in the Bay Area from 1987 till 2015 or so and learned when I was 16.

Maybe early 60s is when many long time riders realize they had better pedal vs twist a grip to make it to their 70s! :laughing

 

[Johndicezx9]

The Sturgis thread should have been moved in here a while back as it was never really about riding.

 

[DataDan]

Didn't Fauci shoot that shit down?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/09/23/fauci-finally-loses-his-patience-with-rand-paul/

Fauci added, “that in New York, it’s about 22 percent [that have tested positive]. If you believe 22 percent is herd immunity, I believe you’re alone in that.”

I guess he's not alone. :wtf

Hard to believe Rand has a medical degree, but what's not hard to believe is why his neighbor beat him up. :laughing

Continuing with the Paul/Fauci exchange:

Paul then suggested that New York’s immunity is actually higher, pointing to claims that an additional one-third of people have cross-reactivity — i.e., having been infected by a similar virus — and could be immune, “which would actually get you to about two-thirds.”

Fauci again asked to rebut Paul.

“I’d like to talk to you about that also, because there was a study that recently came out that preexisting immunity to coronaviruses that are common cold do not cross-react with the covid-19,” Fauci said.​

Notice Fauci's evasion there? Paul didn't suggest that a common cold virus was the source of cross-immunity, but Fauci used a study involving the common cold to "refute". He has no fucking idea why so many people who are exposed to the virus never catch the disease.

What is your (and Fauci's) explanation for the undeniably low new-case rate in New York? For the past two months, New York City new cases have been flat at < 3 per 100,000 pop while US and California have been up to TEN TIMES as high. If it's not "herd immunity" what the fuck is it?