Georgia: The nation's test case

[GAJ]

What is your (and Fauci's) explanation for the undeniably low new-case rate in New York? For the past two months, New York City new cases have been flat at < 3 per 100,000 pop while US and California have been up to TEN TIMES as high. If it's not "herd immunity" what the fuck is it?

Didn't NYC mandate masks two months prior to Calfornia?

 

[Johndicezx9]

Continuing with the Paul/Fauci exchange:

Paul then suggested that New York’s immunity is actually higher, pointing to claims that an additional one-third of people have cross-reactivity — i.e., having been infected by a similar virus — and could be immune, “which would actually get you to about two-thirds.”

Fauci again asked to rebut Paul.

“I’d like to talk to you about that also, because there was a study that recently came out that preexisting immunity to coronaviruses that are common cold do not cross-react with the covid-19,” Fauci said.​

Notice Fauci's evasion there? Paul didn't suggest that a common cold virus was the source of cross-immunity, but Fauci used a study involving the common cold to "refute". He has no fucking idea why so many people who are exposed to the virus never catch the disease.

What is your (and Fauci's) explanation for the undeniably low new-case rate in New York? For the past two months, New York City new cases have been flat at < 3 per 100,000 pop while US and California have been up to TEN TIMES as high. If it's not "herd immunity" what the fuck is it?

I'm sure it has nothing to do with masks, social distancing, cessation of indoor gatherings, and enforcement.

Weren't there a lot of BLM protests that SHOULD have spiked numbers you're touting? Oh yeah, outdoors, most were wearing masks... We're supposed to have herd immunity from measles, yet there are still outbreaks.

Sorry, I'm going to trust someone like Fauci an awful lot more than someone trying to baffle us with the BS of cherry picked numbers and conclusions that could be based in political biases. (More Rand Paul than you, FWIW.)

Where the fuck is the herd immunity teeth) in the farm labor sector in California?

 

[Climber]

However, for whatever reasons, its effect has been less severe--proportionally fewer deaths and fewer hospitalizations. Maybe they're doing a better job of protecting the vulnerable, maybe they've learned about treatment from the states hit hard earlier.

I think that we have learned a ton since the early days of this pandemic on how to treat it. New York City got absolutely nailed, doctors and nurses didn't even have time to think about it, just react and they were completely over-whelmed trying to deal with a new unknown virus and not knowing much of anything on how to treat it.

Now, the knowledge is significantly more and the results are much better.

That's my take on it.

 

[GAJ]

I'm sure it has nothing to do with masks, social distancing, cessation of indoor gatherings, and enforcement.

On June 24th they did this.

In response to increased rates of COVID-19 transmission in certain states within the United States, and to protect New York’s successful containment of COVID-19, the State has joined with New Jersey and Connecticut in jointly issuing a travel advisory for anyone returning from travel to states that have a significant degree of community-wide spread of COVID-19.

Governor Cuomo issued Executive Order 205, requiring all travelers coming from states with significant rates of transmission of COVID-19 to quarantine for a 14-day period from the time of their last contact.

Updated September 22, 2020
The following states and territories meet the criteria for required quarantine:

Alabama
Alaska
Arkansas
Arizona
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Guam
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
North Carolina
North Dakota
Oklahoma
Puerto Rico
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Virginia
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/c...e traveled from,for requiring such quarantine.

 

[Climber]

I'm sure it has nothing to do with masks, social distancing, cessation of indoor gatherings, and enforcement.

Weren't there a lot of BLM protests that SHOULD have spiked numbers you're touting? Oh yeah, outdoors, most were wearing masks... We're supposed to have herd immunity from measles, yet there are still outbreaks.

Sorry, I'm going to trust someone like Fauci an awful lot more than someone trying to baffle us with the BS of cherry picked numbers and conclusions that could be based in political biases. (More Rand Paul than you, FWIW.)

Where the fuck is the herd immunity teeth) in the farm labor sector in California?

Perhaps you're overlooking the fact that people who have had a Very, Very hard lesson are going to take it much more seriously with much fewer people doing stupid shit.

Remember, those states banned travelers from many other states and took many other precautions.

I am not a believer in herd immunity being achieved anywhere, that I know about. I think that's a pipe dream being perpetuated by people with an agenda.

Again, my :2cents

 

[Johndicezx9]

Perhaps you're overlooking the fact that people who have had a Very, Very hard lesson are going to take it much more seriously with much fewer people doing stupid shit.

I would have brought that up as well but that's also "feelz". :laughing

I am not a believer in herd immunity being achieved anywhere, that I know about. I think that's a pipe dream being perpetuated by people with an agenda.

Again, my :2cents

While I agree with your entire post, I really, REALLY agree with this part of it, especially given the people posting it. :thumbup

 

[DataDan]

Weren't there a lot of BLM protests that SHOULD have spiked numbers you're touting? Oh yeah, outdoors, most were wearing masks... We're supposed to have herd immunity from measles, yet there are still outbreaks.

Would we have herd immunity from measles without the vaccine? We didn't in the 1950s.

The BLM surge began in mid-June in many states, but not in New York (Tri State below is New York, New Jersey, Connecticut).

Where the fuck is the herd immunity teeth) in the farm labor sector in California?

It's on the way. I'm offering the San Joaquin Valley as a rough indicator of that segment, but I really don't know if that's accurate. Maybe Snaggy could add his $0.02. It includes counties from Kern to San Joaquin, not including the foothills.

US data from The COVID Tracking Project.
California data from the Department of Public Health.
.

 

[DataDan]

I am not a believer in herd immunity being achieved anywhere, that I know about. I think that's a pipe dream being perpetuated by people with an agenda.

Again, my :2cents

While I agree with your entire post, I really, REALLY agree with this part of it, especially given the people posting it. :thumbup

To be clear: Neither of you believes in "herd immunity"?

It is, in fact, a recognized concept in epidemiology that depends on how contagious a disease is and how many in the population are immune.

 

[Climber]

To be clear: Neither of you believes in "herd immunity"?

It is, in fact, a recognized concept in epidemiology that depends on how contagious a disease is and how many in the population are immune.

You're better than that, Dan.

Please put your partisan hat aside and approach this subjectively.

Of course we believe in the concept of herd immunity.

But, you don't get it with 10 or 20 percent of the population having been infected or inoculated. It requires around 70% or better, and we're nowhere near that, anywhere in the world, that I know about.

 

[Tally Whacker]

I think that we have learned a ton since the early days of this pandemic on how to treat it. New York City got absolutely nailed, doctors and nurses didn't even have time to think about it, just react and they were completely over-whelmed trying to deal with a new unknown virus and not knowing much of anything on how to treat it.

Now, the knowledge is significantly more and the results are much better.

That's my take on it.

Also, initially it swept through nursing homes like wildfire and wiped a lot of those folks out. Now there are much better protocols in place and mostly the facilities that were going to get hit have already suffered. These are people with very little protection against serious illness, and had a very high mortality rate and close contact conditions.

We are seeing fewer deaths among this cohort now than we did a few months back. To be callous, those in assisted-care facilities that were going to die from this already have done so.

 

[Tally Whacker]

But, you don't get it with 10 or 20 percent of the population having been infected or inoculated. It requires around 70% or better, and we're nowhere near that, anywhere in the world, that I know about.

We probably mostly are in NYC. If we reverse the numbers from the mortality rate and number of deaths there at the time the true rate of infection must have been well above 60% at the peak.

 

[Climber]

We probably mostly are in NYC. If we reverse the numbers from the mortality rate and number of deaths there at the time the true rate of infection must have been well above 60% at the peak.

If you use today's current mortality rate, that would be true, but remember that when New York got hit very hard, we knew next to nothing about the virus and what worked with it.

Also, their hospitals were over-whelmed so people who would have survived today were dying off.

It was a very, very steep learning curve the first couple months.

 

[DataDan]

You're better than that, Dan.

Please put your partisan hat aside and approach this subjectively.

Of course we believe in the concept of herd immunity.

But, you don't get it with 10 or 20 percent of the population having been infected or inoculated. It requires around 70% or better, and we're nowhere near that, anywhere in the world, that I know about.

Previously infected, inoculated, or with a pre-existing immunity.

For some reason, some people just don't catch it. Take kids for example. In California, there have been 9000 cases per 1,000,000 population under age 18. For 18-49 it is THREE TIMES that--27,000 cases per million. That means there's something, in some people, that protects them. We don't know what it is, so we don't know how widespread it is in the population.

What we DO know is that the new-case rate has slowed in some places in a way consistent with herd immunity, and some kind of pre-existing immunity in a large portion of the population would help explain that. New York City is the most obvious example, but also nearby states that were hit hard, early. After suffering a devastatingly high number of cases early in the pandemic, the new-case rate in those states dropped. They have not exhibited a BLM surge, mid-summer surge, or Labor Day surge, while other states in the neighborhood did (Pennsylvania, for example). The spread of the virus simply slowed dramatically.

That result is inconsistent with the theory that the spread of the virus can be slowed only with lockdown/masks/whatever. Restrictions are similar in many states, but the only ones where the virus seems to have stopped is those that have reached some sort of case threshold higher than the rest. A similar argument can be made comparing Sweden, where the rate of spread is low, to nearby countries now experiencing a late-summer surge.

 

[Tally Whacker]

If you use today's current mortality rate, that would be true, but remember that when New York got hit very hard, we knew next to nothing about the virus and what worked with it.

Also, their hospitals were over-whelmed so people who would have survived today were dying off.

It was a very, very steep learning curve the first couple months.

The city has had nearly 24,000 deaths from covid. If we assume 0.4% mortality (based of Italy's IFR numbers) that gives us 6,000,000 cases.
Given that there are only 8,500,000 people in NYC, we can extrapolate a 70% infection rate.

Now, infections are still happening in NYC, so clearly total herd immunity hasn't yet happened but the rate is much lower than almost anywhere else in the US despite the extremely high population density. This must mean that R is lower in the city than in the US at large.

 

[Climber]

Previously infected, inoculated, or with a pre-existing immunity.

For some reason, some people just don't catch it. Take kids for example. In California, there have been 9000 cases per 1,000,000 population under age 18. For 18-49 it is THREE TIMES that--27,000 cases per million. That means there's something, in some people, that protects them. We don't know what it is, so we don't know how widespread it is in the population.

What we DO know is that the new-case rate has slowed in some places in a way consistent with herd immunity, and some kind of pre-existing immunity in a large portion of the population would help explain that. New York City is the most obvious example, but also nearby states that were hit hard, early. After suffering a devastatingly high number of cases early in the pandemic, the new-case rate in those states dropped. They have not exhibited a BLM surge, mid-summer surge, or Labor Day surge, while other states in the neighborhood did (Pennsylvania, for example). The spread of the virus simply slowed dramatically.

That result is inconsistent with the theory that the spread of the virus can be slowed only with lockdown/masks/whatever. Restrictions are similar in many states, but the only ones where the virus seems to have stopped is those that have reached some sort of case threshold higher than the rest. A similar argument can be made comparing Sweden, where the rate of spread is low, to nearby countries now experiencing a late-summer surge.

But, to support your theory, you're leaving out a very important factor...namely people taking steps to avoid catching the virus.

Now, if they had gone back to business as usual, then I would agree that there is something else at work.

However, these states are also of the political population that is far, far more accepting of wearing masks and taking other precautions, and that above and beyond the fact that most people in those states know at least one person who has died from covid-19.

We'll know in another couple months, so better to agree that the other person's arguments have some merit and that time will show which were more true.

 

[Snaggy]

It's on the way. I'm offering the San Joaquin Valley as a rough indicator of that segment, but I really don't know if that's accurate. Maybe Snaggy could add his $0.02. It includes counties from Kern to San Joaquin, not including the foothills.

US data from The COVID Tracking Project.
California data from the Department of Public Health.
.

Months ago I posted I thought that food production workers in the Central Valley would be at risk, another Smithfield Ham waiting to happen. I mentioned Foster Farms as being conscientous about safety and infections.

Foster Farms had at least 400 cases and 8 deaths at their Livingston chicken works. The state called it the worst occupational health disaster in years. That's a significant part of the Valley surge. Little Livingstone had the highest infection rate in the county. FF was ordered to shut, defied the order, then made a deal to stay open.

This week, dozens of cars disgorged dozens of workers at dawn on a 10 acre field near my house. They're digging sweet potatoes. Those are placed in wooden boxes and sent to a sorting facility. Ladies who know what they're doing will step up to the conveyor and sort. They can make decent money because they're fast. They're also working close together.

These are ALL immigrants, tireless workers, and I wish them well.

 

[Johndicezx9]

To be clear: Neither of you believes in "herd immunity"?

It is, in fact, a recognized concept in epidemiology that depends on how contagious a disease is and how many in the population are immune.

I absolutely believe in herd immunity.

What I don't believe are your numbers to achieve it, or that it's been achieved in the case of NYC, and to put sprinkles on that, I don't trust that you are not swayed by an agenda or politics. :dunno

 

[Yakoo752]

For some reason, some people just don't catch it. Take kids for example. In California, there have been 9000 cases per 1,000,000 population under age 18. For 18-49 it is THREE TIMES that--27,000 cases per million. That means there's something, in some people, that protects them. We don't know what it is, so we don't know how widespread it is in the population.

hard stop, kids are just as susceptible to getting covid as any other group. They are just more likely to be asymptomatic then any other group. We aren't testing kids at the same rate as we are testing adults.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/88574

In three outbreaks in Utah, 54% of cases linked to childcare facilities occurred in children, and transmission likely occurred from children with confirmed COVID-19 to 25% of their "non-facility contacts," such as parents and siblings, with one parent hospitalized, reported Cuc Tran, PhD, of the CDC, and colleagues.

Moreover, transmission to adults was confirmed in two of three children with asymptomatic infection, the authors wrote in an early edition of the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.

Ten adults who worked at the childcare facility also contracted the infection, with contact tracing showing they were facility-associated cases, Tran and colleagues noted.

Of the 12 children who acquired the virus in childcare facilities, transmission was documented to at least 12 of 46 non-facility contacts, according to this report.

and this

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/87849

Among 597 Georgia residents, including campers, staff members, and trainees, the attack rate was 44%, reported Christine M. Szablewski, DVM, of the Georgia Department of Public Health, and colleagues.

The attack rate was highest among staff members (56%). Younger children ages 6-10 had a rate of 51%, those ages 11-17 had a rate of 44%, and those ages 18-21 had a rate of 33%, the authors wrote in an early edition of the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.

 

[GAJ]

Bars, restaurants, theme parks in Florida now fully open in Florida.

Herd immunity right around the corner! :laughing

https://www.tampabay.com/news/flori...to-full-capacity-as-florida-moves-to-phase-3/

 

[GAJ]

Deaths per 100k are not as starkly different in the larger Southern States as one would imagine vs us here.

California 109

Florida 127

Texas 133

Georgia 135

North Carolina 93

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/us-coronavirus-deaths-by-state-july-1.html