Buffet on the impending market crash

Climber

Well-known member
I simply can't find a way to respond apolitically, so, Imma move on lol.

Of the people who've lost their jobs, been furloughed etc...what % do you think will get their job back once the dust settles? I'm thinking closer to 50% than 100%.
That's a tough question, it will probably vary among companies.

It does offer an opportunity for companies to get rid of the employees they would have wanted to remove but were afraid of lawsuits, though they might get sued anyways but not hiring back is probably a better positioned stance than firing, though maybe the lawyers on here could clear up that perception.

I'm also wondering how many companies will hire back, but since the unemployment level is so high, they might offer a lower salary.

I'm hoping that the Execs don't exploit this situation, but the years following 2009 don't give me a ton of confidence that they won't.
 

Ducky_Fresh

Treasure Hunter
You’ll see some companies go o of business and other companies which survive gobble up their revenue. The sun total won’t create the same amount of jobs and probably isn’t good for the general public. We want options. But given capitalism, it should open up some new opportunities as well.

Was interesting the guy on CNBC this morning said what I’ve been saying. Stop doing any government bailouts. If you are an airline and you can’t operate in a manner where you have cash to weather this type of event, should you exist?

We have dozens of airlines. We have dozens of car manufacturers.

Why? 2-3 probably most efficient. Yet a bunch emerge. Even private airlines that aren’t subsidized. How’s that possible????
 

Climber

Well-known member
You’ll see some companies go o of business and other companies which survive gobble up their revenue. The sun total won’t create the same amount of jobs and probably isn’t good for the general public. We want options. But given capitalism, it should open up some new opportunities as well.

Was interesting the guy on CNBC this morning said what I’ve been saying. Stop doing any government bailouts. If you are an airline and you can’t operate in a manner where you have cash to weather this type of event, should you exist?

We have dozens of airlines. We have dozens of car manufacturers.

Why? 2-3 probably most efficient. Yet a bunch emerge. Even private airlines that aren’t subsidized. How’s that possible????
Sorry, can't agree with what you're saying.

It's one thing to weather a few weeks, or even a month, but what the airlines are going through could not have been anticipated.

And, just 2-3 airlines would be really, really bad for flyers, it's been getting steadily worse as the number of carriers has dropped. Can you say collusion?
 

cheez

Master Of The Darkside
You’ll see some companies go o of business and other companies which survive gobble up their revenue. The sun total won’t create the same amount of jobs and probably isn’t good for the general public. We want options. But given capitalism, it should open up some new opportunities as well.

Was interesting the guy on CNBC this morning said what I’ve been saying. Stop doing any government bailouts. If you are an airline and you can’t operate in a manner where you have cash to weather this type of event, should you exist?

We have dozens of airlines. We have dozens of car manufacturers.

Why? 2-3 probably most efficient. Yet a bunch emerge. Even private airlines that aren’t subsidized. How’s that possible????

This is largely how I feel. Individuals and families are expected to maintain six months of emergency fund to continue to operate in the absence of income. Where's the same requirement for corporations? Should they not be required to prove that they've not sucked all of the value out of the business prior to receiving a bailout to keep their company afloat?
 

Archimedes

Fire Watcher
This is largely how I feel. Individuals and families are expected to maintain six months of emergency fund to continue to operate in the absence of income. Where's the same requirement for corporations? Should they not be required to prove that they've not sucked all of the value out of the business prior to receiving a bailout to keep their company afloat?

Yeah, but it's not that simple. Six months of an airlines expenses are more than the entire company is worth. The economics of the business don't make sense if they were to sit on cash at those levels. For it to make sense, air travel would need to cost twice as much.

Airlines are a unique animal, both due to the economics of the business and the fact that they provide a mission critical function for our economy. I have no problem with them getting financial assistance, as long as it comes largely at the expense of the investors/lessors, rather than the taxpayers. If we bail them out, we get concessions from all the lessors and we own equity.
 

Blankpage

alien
The airlines needed a bailout for just the few days they were down after 9/11. If they were in that poor condition after just a few days than I'm surprised they're not all bankrupt a month ago from the current crisis.
Could they were just taking advantage of the situation back then.
 

Climber

Well-known member
The airlines needed a bailout for just the few days they were down after 9/11. If they were in that poor condition after just a few days than I'm surprised they're not all bankrupt a month ago from the current crisis.
Could they were just taking advantage of the situation back then.
The difference now is online shopping and shipping.

When they don't fill the plane with passengers (or luggage) they substitute with packages.

It gives them the opportunity to close in on costs.
 

cheez

Master Of The Darkside
Yeah, but it's not that simple. Six months of an airlines expenses are more than the entire company is worth. The economics of the business don't make sense if they were to sit on cash at those levels. For it to make sense, air travel would need to cost twice as much.

Airlines are a unique animal, both due to the economics of the business and the fact that they provide a mission critical function for our economy. I have no problem with them getting financial assistance, as long as it comes largely at the expense of the investors/lessors, rather than the taxpayers. If we bail them out, we get concessions from all the lessors and we own equity.

Airlines are an edge case and need government support to stay afloat in this situation, as they are expected to operate at a loss during this crisis.

The airlines needed a bailout for just the few days they were down after 9/11. If they were in that poor condition after just a few days than I'm surprised they're not all bankrupt a month ago from the current crisis.
Could they were just taking advantage of the situation back then.

Airlines are also an edge case who carry absurd debt loads as part of their operation and have huge day to day operating costs.

In the rest of the "western" world, this has gone like:

Subsidies from government to landlords, business owners, etc. have eased the immediate concern of loss of income from the shutdown and allowed businesses to pause production/operations. Loans to the same have ensured they can continue to survive through the shutdown.

Furlough is the norm, not layoff. The payrolls are not reduced, the headcount are on unpaid leave. Payments to unemployment insurance and the like are being obviated by the state. Unemployment is being paid to citizens on furlough and additional payments are being made in some cases (not all.)

In many cases rents are being obviated- in Germany the banks are deferring mortgage payments to the end of the loan, and renters are being charged fractional rents. Businesses the same- the landlords are getting a deferment on mortgage payments, but they're legally obligated to pass that through to renters as fractional rent. They've also declared a VAT holiday through end of year, so consumption-based taxation is on hold.

Healthcare is state-insured and is not something individuals accrue debt for in most of these places, so no state subsidies of healthcare beyond the norm are required, even if the bills will be a bit higher.

Equipment has been widely available, including masks, tests, and ventilators, because of systemic stockpiles of these items. Only nations which didn't respond early to flatten the curve (see: Italy) have had their healthcare systems overwhelmed.

So I look at the much more calm and responsible manner the rest of the civilized world is reacting to the economic situation being caused here, at how they basically have the infrastructure and oversight to allow the "Pause" button to be hit, without people talking about "destroying the economy" of that nation.

Like I keep saying, responsible families have savings for emergencies. Responsible nations do too, and in robust economic times, they raise taxes and pay down deficit and debt, they put surplus away for a rainy day, etc. Responsible corporations do also- the giants are sitting on their cash war chests and smiling while the smaller guys struggle and die- happy to snap their assets up in bankruptcy. When times like these happen we have to pull together- not continue to predate on one another. We have to act in good faith- something being lost in our capitalist society via the reduction of oversight and the reduction of tax rates, allowing the pillaging of the economy via cash extraction.

This is a uniquely American situation we've let the "free market" get us into, and we're being told we have to throw the lives of the weak on the bonfire of capitalism to keep it from dying as a result. I reject that argument and say that the piper has come calling- it's time to raise taxes on the rich to ensure that we are well-equipped to deal with this sort of situation in the future.

So yeah, I'll reduce it back down to "corporations should be able to survive for six months without undue distress" without an issue. Our society should be responsible enough to require it, rather than leaving corporations as valueless husks of branding and process that collapse in the smallest instability.
 
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Climber

Well-known member
Airlines are an edge case and need government support to stay afloat in this situation, as they are expected to operate at a loss during this crisis.

Agreed. They can be viewed as an essential business.

That won't stop some businessmen from trying to exploit that, however.

There are always assholes who try to take advantage of situation. They should be dealt with individually.
 

cheez

Master Of The Darkside
Agreed. They can be viewed as an essential business.

That won't stop some businessmen from trying to exploit that, however.

There are always assholes who try to take advantage of situation. They should be dealt with individually.

+1. I say this often- "Regulations and oversight are the conscience of capitalism."
 

Archimedes

Fire Watcher
The airlines needed a bailout for just the few days they were down after 9/11. If they were in that poor condition after just a few days than I'm surprised they're not all bankrupt a month ago from the current crisis.
Could they were just taking advantage of the situation back then.

The economics of the airline industry are very unique, in that they are highly leveraged, not just financially but operationally. If they were not, air travel would be ridiculously expensive. The downside of that is that they're very susceptible to significant shocks. But would you rather finance them once every 20 years for a period of time or regularly pay $2,500 to fly from SF to LA?
 

Blankpage

alien
The market rebound is astounding. I was down a lot and was so tempted to sell everything. Fortunately I didn't and now almost back to where I was at the high point in January. I'm too heavy tech and it saved my ass.

The lesson I guess is luck, patience, and never underestimate the ability people in power to manipulate the market.

Still wondering if I should sell everything or ride it out until the election. Seems the outlook for the third world are having no impact on the market, no surprise I guess but what will be the impact US 20% unemployment
 

yumdumpster

Well-known member
The market rebound is astounding. I was down a lot and was so tempted to sell everything. Fortunately I didn't and now almost back to where I was at the high point in January. I'm too heavy tech and it saved my ass.

The lesson I guess is luck, patience, and never underestimate the ability people in power to manipulate the market.

Still wondering if I should sell everything or ride it out until the election. Seems the outlook for the third world are having no impact on the market, no surprise I guess but what will be the impact US 20% unemployment

It would seem the stock market doesnt really reflect reality. I still expect it to crater again.
 

cheez

Master Of The Darkside
It would seem the stock market doesnt really reflect reality. I still expect it to crater again.

My gut is screaming that this is a pre-election pump to get their money out, before letting Trump lose to Biden and having the markets move downwards as a result. Could be wrong, but either a 2nd wave or the election (or both) are yet to impact.
 

yumdumpster

Well-known member
My gut is screaming that this is a pre-election pump to get their money out, before letting Trump lose to Biden and having the markets move downwards as a result. Could be wrong, but either a 2nd wave or the election (or both) are yet to impact.

Yea I dont trust it at all, I have shares releasing may first im going to dump them all. My companies stock is way overvalued and is up like 30% from the initial crash.
 

bpw

Well-known member
Nothing makes sense right now, but since I don't actually need to sell anything for 20+ years, whatever. With no logic I will just keep doing what I do an hope the averages work out in the long run.

Even more of a casino than usual for the small players.
 

Sharky

Well-known member
Nothing makes sense right now, but since I don't actually need to sell anything for 20+ years, whatever. With no logic I will just keep doing what I do an hope the averages work out in the long run.

Even more of a casino than usual for the small players.

They keep the market paying out to the small players a little at a time so the big players have money to play and get rich with. The insiders win good market or bad, they just prefer the good market because it easier for them to make money that way, and the little guy shuts up gettinf his 5-10% increase.
 

Ducky_Fresh

Treasure Hunter
I have little faith in the current meltup. It's scary crazy.

I can’t make sense of any of it and I am not real sure how to make any money from it?

If I throw down a put on SPY timing it seems impossible. The VIX is too nasty to buy with the theta decay. Not to mention the fees.

What’s an inverse stock???? How do I bet against the house?
 
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