Buffet on the impending market crash

[Yakoo752]

Since this hasn't seen activity in a little while, I figured I would bump it with this article.

As Berto mentioned, the country/ies that emerge first will likley become the next economic power. Remember economic power is only 1 side of the die to becoming a world super power.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/declin...n-may-but-recovery-set-to-be-slow-11591006623

Feel free to read the entire but I'll summarise.

Surveys of purchasing managers at manufacturers in the U.S., Asia and Europe offered signs that the decline in global factory activity is starting to bottom out after the record fall seen in April. But sentiment remained negative, suggesting any recovery in the months ahead could be tentative.

Seeing a bottom and the reality is a surge at this point won't be as monumental as the entry surge. We didn't know much and we now know much more. Our response and the response of our health systems are better poised at dealing with this. The workforce is in a better position to return since we've developed process and procedure.

The factory indexes add to other signs the U.S. and other countries may have reached an economic bottom, though recoveries could be slow. Unemployment is up sharply across the globe. Services industries, hit particularly hard by the virus, are just starting to recover. And consumer spending, an important catalyst for the U.S. and other economies, remains weak.

Virtuous cycle. Employers need to hire and employees need to spend "earnings". Leaving politics out of this for now.

“After you get the initial bounce of economic activity simply from removing the lockdowns, I think what we’ll see is an economy that is running at a level of activity notably below where we were prior to Covid,” said Michelle Meyer, chief U.S. economist at BofA Merrill Lynch. “It’s going to take a long time to heal. There will be scars as a result of such a painful shock of the economy.”

Only in China, the first major economy to begin reopening after the novel coronavirus outbreak, did factories report an increase in activity. But the surveys suggested that its nascent economic recovery is already beginning to stall, with export orders falling sharply amid continued global efforts to contain the pandemic.

China—the first country exposed to the virus—entered lockdown earlier than other countries. It also exited its lockdown earlier, but May surveys of purchasing managers pointed to a large decline in export orders.

Speaking of virtuous cycles. If the largest spender in the world isn't buying...

So what? It's not anticipated that recovery will occur until 2029.
What does this mean in terms of market opportunities? I will double down on my long term earners before July and play the market a bit till Oct. After that, I will sit pack and cherry pick opportunity as it arises.

:2cents

 

[Archimedes]

Fed pulls back, market craters. Strange.