Anyone going to Sturgis on a sports bike next month?

[ctwo]

Not that sensitive. And I can piss into the wind (about our mitigation efforts) :laughing

Wow! 30F mid-day in bucolic downtown Sturgis, according to the webcams on Main Street.

Windy too.

Oh yeah, Sturgis... It's nine months away so we have lots of time to shoot the breeze

Don't get to hung up on some of the noise. You've added some interesting perspectives.

To note: the Imperial model is what originally predicted eleventy billion OMG deaths. I'm not gonna discredit their work but it is a meta which they do address. Also to note, their meta is of 10 serological surveys with the majority being in the EU. I think this will slant the IFR in comparison to the US.

...

I know the New York State sero study and think it's problematic so it reinforces my questioning.

I truly hoped to find something a little closer to home. There was another report on the WHO site, but...

And it's not like I get paid for any of this, ever; and I'm not going for style points either so I don't really care deep down inside. I will admit to being a bit coarse here. I'm not immune to the effects of this, and honestly the past two weeks have presented new realities of my job and home crumbling away.

The irony is I chose not to take that extra course for the Mathematics degree, because who really needs it? Little did I know how I could have used it later in life on a motorcycle forum.

Ah, ok, the "circle jerk" comment threw me off.

I assume IFR means something other than Instrument Flight Rules as that's what I get when I google IFR.

CFR is the ratio of known cases to fatalities.
IFR is the ratio of all infections to fatalities. We cannot really know this number because we are unable to test everyone still alive.

 

[Yakoo752]

The irony is I chose not to take that extra course for the Mathematics degree, because who really needs it? Little did I know how I could have used it later in life on a motorcycle forum.

On Dec 14th, I wrap up my last math class and officially become a business statistician (Bachelor's in Business Analytics with a minor in Mathematics) arty

Luckily, I am already gainfully employed as a Business Analyst but with my new found degree I catch the promotion to Sr. Business Analyst in April arty x2

Sadly, I start my Master in Data Analysis this summer :cry

It never ends :cry

Oh and full time student, full time parent, full time employee. I'm so tired all the time :laughing

 

[GAJ]

Oh and full time student, full time parent, full time employee. I'm so tired all the time :laughing

Man, I did that as did my future wife back when the Dinosaurs ruled the Earth, and it was hard.

Night school MBA, daytime 9-5 but, thankfully, at that time, without our daughter in the mix!

You are certifiable! :laughing

 

[GAJ]

the past two weeks have presented new realities of my job and home crumbling away.

CFR is the ratio of known cases to fatalities.
IFR is the ratio of all infections to fatalities. We cannot really know this number because we are unable to test everyone still alive.

Sorry for the life challenges but at age 64 realize that very few can dodge them but wish you good fortune in overcoming these current ones.

And thanks for the CFR/IFR explanation.

 

[Yakoo752]

You are certifiable! :laughing

A Masters in Data Science is a surprisingly "easy" program.

Sorry for the life challenges [...] wish you good fortune in overcoming these current ones.

And this. I didn't mean to gloss over your potential misfortune nor appear braggadocios. I've been working on my Bachelors, off and on, for well over a decade. I realize my post could be insensitive.

 

[bojangle]

Well, if I get a vaccine, I don't really care if others do or don't, I'll be immune to their stupidity.

A couple of weeks ago I got the first of 2 shingles vaccine shots. I'll go back for the second in January, but I really don't want to, left my arm kinda sore.

Well, I'm basically of the same mindset, however, others' stupidity is not without consequence. We are more protected if all get vaccinated than if we only get vaccinated with some. Vaccines aren't 100%, but if nearly 100% of the population is vaccinated, we are all more protected than if only the individual is vaccinated. Herd immunity is a real thing.

Did you get the Shingrix vaccine, or a different one? Shingrix is supposed to be the more effective one.

You can add the colloquial "Panic Porn", "Herd Immunity", and "Its just a flu!" :laughing

Since I have that Sturgis Rally homepage bookmarked I take a look every now and then, looks like a cute little town the other 50 weeks of the year.

Like I said above, herd immunity is a real thing. No country is close to having it with covid, but it is real.

 

[Grissom]

Well, if I get a vaccine, I don't really care if others do or don't, I'll be immune to their stupidity.

A couple of weeks ago I got the first of 2 shingles vaccine shots. I'll go back for the second in January, but I really don't want to, left my arm kinda sore.

My doctor just put in a order for me to get the Shingrix vaccine

Did you have any other side effects?

 

[WoodsChick]

Oh and full time student, full time parent, full time employee. I'm so tired all the time :laughing

Wow...This makes your full time Covid Informer job here on BARF even more impressive! Thanks for putting in the extra energy for us, and congrats on the degree and promotion!

 

[mrmarklin]

Yay America, where any dick with a computer can become a statistician, declare a problem not a problem, and then present their position as valid as anybody's. In fact, maybe even more valid because they're not part of what they've been told by other armchair-scientist dickheads is the "corrupted establishment."

And boy am I tired of it.

I'm going to become a motorcycle "scientist" because I've read a bunch of shit on the internet. Therefore, I'm telling you that you should always wheelie when lanesplitting, because statistically, there are no fatalities reported in 12 counties in California showing fatalities while wheelieing during lanesplitting. If you disagree with me, you're just part of the corrupted motorcycle-safety establishment, who are whipping up anti-wheelieing hysteria so they can continue to get their research grants.

In other words, GTFO with your diminished, anti-scientific excusing of indefensible behavior.

Of course, this is all delivered with much respect and love for a fellow BARFer.

You're right.

Yet you believe in global warming using similar computer models done by people with political agendas making money off of climate change.:rolleyes

 

[Abacinator]

You're right.

Yet you believe in global warming using similar computer models done by people with political agendas making money off of climate change.:rolleyes

opcorn

 

[byke]

Only in America is Jesus real and Covid fake.

 

[budman]

:laughing I doubt that is true.

 

[Johndicezx9]

Well, I'm basically of the same mindset, however, others' stupidity is not without consequence. We are more protected if all get vaccinated than if we only get vaccinated with some. Vaccines aren't 100%, but if nearly 100% of the population is vaccinated, we are all more protected than if only the individual is vaccinated. Herd immunity is a real thing.

Did you get the Shingrix vaccine, or a different one? Shingrix is supposed to be the more effective one.

Like I said above, herd immunity is a real thing. No country is close to having it with covid, but it is real.

I get that herd immunity is a real thing, it will be achieved with a vaccine. Herd immunity achieved without the vaccines would be be a staggeringly high body count, don't you think? :dunno

Regardless of a vaccine, I'm pretty sure we're all gonna be careful for quite a while with the Adrian Monk like habits we've picked up in the last 10 months. I watched a rerun of "Monk" not that long ago, he doesn't seem so quirky now! :laughing

My doctor just put in a order for me to get the Shingrix vaccine

Did you have any other side effects?

To answer both of you, yes, the Shingrix. It's 2 shots within 6 months, I have to get the 2nd sometime in January. Other than the soreness around the area of the shot for a few days I didn't feel any other side effects. The vaccine was pretty easy to get, I went to the CVS where I get my flu shots.

Three people I know that have had shingles in the last few years said it was one of the most painful things they've been through and added that they should have gotten the vaccine. 2 of the guys were in their late 50's, one was in his mid 60's. I just turned 58.

 

[gixxerjeff]

You're right.

Yet you believe in global warming using similar computer models done by people with political agendas making money off of climate change.:rolleyes

:laughing
More comedy gold from you. Keep them coming, seriously.

 

[Johndicezx9]

I'm tired of seeing scientists drinking champagne all the time... :x

 

[Yakoo752]

Well, I'm basically of the same mindset, however, others' stupidity is not without consequence. We are more protected if all get vaccinated than if we only get vaccinated with some. Vaccines aren't 100%, but if nearly 100% of the population is vaccinated, we are all more protected than if only the individual is vaccinated. Herd immunity is a real thing.

Like I said above, herd immunity is a real thing. No country is close to having it with covid, but it is real.

Yes and no. Ideal world we reach 100% and we're done. Real world, we know we won't reach 100% but we may not need to. Polio only requires ~80% vaccinated and it pretty much disappears. That is the concept of herd immunity. If enough of the herd is immune, there aren't enough hosts for the virus to survive.

Three people I know that have had shingles in the last few years said it was one of the most painful things they've been through and added that they should have gotten the vaccine. 2 of the guys were in their late 50's, one was in his mid 60's. I just turned 58.

My wife had shingles on her eye lid. The pain and suffering she endured was nuts. Crazy part here... shingles presents on the nerve ending and you can get it on you optic nerve and thus highly possible to go blind. We went to ER for it and the time it took to be seen and raced across the hospital to the ophthalmologist was about 10 secs :laughing fastest service ever!

 

[Johndicezx9]

Wow. Hope she's ok now....

I was sure I had measles as a kid. My mother told me I had measles as a kid. I remember having German measles. I remember mumps. I was part of that last group that was before the MMR vaccines were so prevalent.

Apparently, I didn't have them. I got measles in my late 20s. The worst 2-3 weeks of my life.... :laughing

If I could have avoided that, I would have.

 

[Marcoose]

On Worldometres, on cases per million, the Dakotas are 1 and 2 in the nation. On deaths per million, 8 and 9. Each has the population of San Francisco.

Marketing is a powerful thing. People buy what they’re sold.

 

[Yakoo752]

On Worldometres, on cases per million, the Dakotas are 1 and 2 in the nation. On deaths per million, 8 and 9. Each has the population of San Francisco.

Marketing is a powerful thing. People buy what they’re sold.

I am assuming cumulative?

For the month of November, on a weekly basis, I pretty clearly have them in both 1 and 2 spots for our nation.

 

[Yakoo752]

I am glad COVID decided to take a break for the holidays

Just note, the slope to the right of the dip is far greater then anywhere on the slope to the left of the dip.

So either testing was delayed due to the holidays OR people chose to ignore their symptoms to hang out with grandma (some hyperbole here)

It could be lack of pre-procedure testing that drove the numbers down.

We get to test our theories in about 2-3 weeks...

EDIT: Personal Development Goal: I'm working on taking out leading language and just sticking to strict fact.