When will the SIP end?

[budman]

I went back to this thread... the first few predictions came and went pretty fast.. man were we off.

A little later I said this:

That plan is an action. In my world I went from working 75% last week to full on this week. Construction is lighting up. I see the enormous effort of all kinds of companies to make it as safe as possible. I get to read protocols from many. Folks have been putting in the effort to be smart about this and keep it workable.
It is amazing really. At least to me.

Other things are too and we see counties doing their thing.

It is happening. It may take a while but we are moving forward.

Life returning to as it was before?? Late 2021 or 2022 would be my guess if we are successful. That is a long time for us humans, but a blink in terms of humanity.

I am sure some things will forever being changed.
Hoping for the best parts from this experience.

Took a few months for reality to set in... and we are still wondering how this will shake out and when. Now with the vaccine rolling out slowly I think there is an expectation for getting back to life on some sort of normal basis.

I think the end of 2021 or in 2022 is still real. Wonder what I will think in 3 more months?

 

[N4teTheGreat]

I'm not optimistic for the near term, same if not longer lines for testing at the urgent care clinic in my building so we'll see at least as much Xmas / New Years travel as we did for Thanksgiving. I expect the bay areas new SIP orders will get extended as cases and hospitalizations continue to go up. Presumably we'll get a peak end of January and then start to level off. Maybe SIP will blunt the impact to some extent.

 

[GAJ]

I went back to this thread... the first few predictions came and went pretty fast.. man were we off.

A little later I said this:





Took a few months for reality to set in... and we are still wondering how this will shake out and when. Now with the vaccine rolling out slowly I think there is an expectation for getting back to life on some sort of normal basis.

I think the end of 2021 or in 2022 is still real. Wonder what I will think in 3 more months?

I think I won't be seeing a vaccine until September or so as I'm retired and not quite 65.

That's fine, those that have to work or go to school should be ahead of me and, obviously, Health Care, Public Safety and teachers at the head of the line along with folks in senior care and hard hit minority communities.

 

[bikeama]

Going to be optimistic. Hope to get a vaccine shot by Mar/Apr. 70 years old and Sleep Apnea.

 

[Yakoo752]

I think you're right Dennis.

late 2021, early 2022.

I haven't a clue what the "return" will look like.

 

[Yakoo752]

I do have some concerns about people getting the vaccine and caring even less about others.

Can I stop wearing a mask after getting a COVID-19 vaccine?

No. For a couple reasons, masks and social distancing will still be recommended for some time after people are vaccinated.

To start, the first coronavirus vaccines require two shots; Pfizer’s second dose comes three weeks after the first and Moderna’s comes after four weeks. And the effect of vaccinations generally aren’t immediate.

People are expected to get some level of protection within a couple of weeks after the first shot. But full protection may not happen until a couple weeks after the second shot.

It’s also not yet known whether the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines protect people from infection entirely, or just from symptoms. That means vaccinated people might still be able to get infected and pass the virus on, although it would likely be at a much lower rate​

https://apnews.com/article/mask-wearing-after-coronavirus-vaccine-f69b720444bd08565bf1f3a42e4a24ef

 

[Climber]

You weren't far off, Budman with what we would say today and that with much more knowledge.

I think that by next summer, late Jun to early July we'll see this thing backing off enough for most businesses and activities to resume, albeit with masks and distancing. Most schools will be going back to in school classes for at least a portion of their kids, so I think we'll see the youngsters get infected and move on, removing a large portion of the vectors for transmission (i.e. the kids).

Along with the sun, heat and the move to outdoor activities and a portion of the population vaccinated.

It will be interesting to find out what the actual numbers are for effectiveness of the vaccinations. I think we'll see that 95% drop, by how much remains to be seen.

 

[bojangle]

We'd better have kids back in school by the start of next school year...August of 2021.

 

[GAJ]

Starting tomorrow here in Sonoma County.

These activities are allowed to continue in some capacity:

Retail operations at 20% except for grocery stores, which will be at 35% capacity.

Schools that have received waivers will be allowed to continue operation.

Churches and other places of worship can hold outdoor services.

Restaurants allowed to offer takeout and delivery.

Gyms are outdoor / online.

Hotels, vacation rentals and other lodging only allowed to serve those traveling for essential work or for COVID-19 mitigation efforts.

Playgrounds are open.


The following operations will be required to cease both indoor and outdoor services:

Hair salons and barbershops

Personal care services

Movie theaters (except for drive-in theaters)

Wineries, bars, breweries and distilleries (except for operations related to production, manufacturing, distribution and retail sales for off-site consumption)

Family entertainment centers

Museums, zoos and aquariums

Live audience sports

Amusement parks

 

[ctwo]

I think the kids will be back in school next year, and most everything else by then too. I saw a chart that estimated vaccines would be 70% distributed by the August time frame. IF that happens we should not be seeing many infections.

 

[Yakoo752]

SJSU just announced intent to resume on prem education fall 21

They are expecting reduced class sizes and more availability of online course then traditionally offered

 

[GAJ]

I think the kids will be back in school next year, and most everything else by then too. I saw a chart that estimated vaccines would be 70% distributed by the August time frame. IF that happens we should not be seeing many infections.

Fingers crossed they are right.

I'll still be waiting for the vaccine but that's ok.

I'm clearly not "essential"! :laughing

 

[budman]

Me too. I really know how a hamster in a cage feels at this point.

I should have had a TV available for Benny.
Poor little dude only had his wheel.

 

[dagle]

pfizer vaccines start next week allegedly and have already been delivered if i'm not mistaken, not sure about the moderna one. i was awared of a tip from a stock betting group of all things and i looked into it and bought options for pfizer and a few other drug companies on thursday. i would expect vaccines to be widely available to everyone in a month and everyone getting the opportunity to be vaccinated in the next 3-6 months.

 

[Yakoo752]

pfizer vaccines start next week allegedly and have already been delivered if i'm not mistaken, not sure about the moderna one. i was awared of a tip from a stock betting group of all things and i looked into it and bought options for pfizer and a few other drug companies on thursday. i would expect vaccines to be widely available to everyone in a month and everyone getting the opportunity to be vaccinated in the next 3-6 months.

They (Pfizer) ship on Monday.

Not a chance they will be “widely available to everyone in a month”

 

[Climber]

They (Pfizer) ship on Monday.

Not a chance they will be “widely available to everyone in a month”

Agreed. The US had a chance to pre-order additional doses during the summer, but now other countries will receive them first after these first 100 million doses, from my understanding of a story last week.

First Thing: the White House turned down 100m extra Pfizer vaccine doses

The White House refused an offer to buy 100m additional doses of Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine, a decision which could cause delays in distribution. The Trump administration ordered an initial 100m doses, enough for 50 million Americans, from the US multinational but passing up the opportunity to buy a second batch could mean the US has to wait until Pfizer has supplied other countries before it can get further doses.

 

[Yakoo752]

Yep!

Also, the EULA is only for those 16 years of age or older, so there’s that

Also, we need about 700M doses to vaccinate everyone. 500M if we’re going for 70%

This first run is less then 500k

 

[Yakoo752]

��: The first shipment of #COVID19 vaccine doses from our Kalamazoo, Michigan plant with UPS and FedEx. For months, our teams have been planning, preparing, strategizing and testing. We know that every minute counts. Every dose counts.

The Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine has not been approved or licensed by the U.S. FDA, but has been authorized for emergency use by FDA, under an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to prevent Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) for use in individuals 16 years of age and older. The emergency use of this product is only authorized for the duration of the declaration that circumstances exist justifying the authorization of emergency use of this product unless the declaration is terminated or authorization revoked sooner. Please see EUA Fact Sheet at www.cvdvaccine.com.

About an hour ago they loaded the trucks.

 

[budman]

The NY Times has a Vaccine calculator to get an idea where you sit in terms of getting it.

I played with it a bit since I don't know if the medical professionals would call me at risk or not. (TIA - 7 years ago).

So I did it both ways.

Same with essential worker... I am essential to the 7 people that work for me. :laughing

Saying no to each put me way da fook back even at my age.

Here you go

I think the essential is true. I also think my job is low risk and that I don't have any health issues so when I put that in I am way down in between 1.4 other essential workers and 8.2M others.

So... it will be a while. My guess.. 6 months.

 

[bojangle]

The NY Times has a Vaccine calculator to get an idea where you sit in terms of getting it.

I played with it a bit since I don't know if the medical professionals would call me at risk or not. (TIA - 7 years ago).

So I did it both ways.

Same with essential worker... I am essential to the 7 people that work for me. :laughing

Saying no to each put me way da fook back even at my age.

Here you go

I think the essential is true. I also think my job is low risk and that I don't have any health issues so when I put that in I am way down in between 1.4 other essential workers and 8.2M others.

So... it will be a while. My guess.. 6 months.

It shows I'd be at number 8 in their imaginary line of about 100 people.