Risky Business

[boney]

Compared to your non-motorcycling friends, do you consider yourself a risk taker or a risk avoider?

I'd say that all my friends engage in a similar amount of risk, whatever it is that they like to do.

Do you come from a risk-taking family? Were you a risk-taking kid?

Yes, and Yes. If you consider motorcycling "risk-taking" then I have only my dad to blame for the motorcycles. As a family we are very active and enjoy a great deal of different interests. When I was a kid I learned to ski from my brother. He took me to the top of an intermediate run and said "This is how you snow-plow. If you want to ski with me (I did) you'd better keep up." Later I got into BMX, Rock Climbing & Mountaineering, mountain bikes, and motorcycles. Most of which I did with my brother at one time or another.

What other kinds of recreational activities do you enjoy?

The one's listed above are still high on the list.

Does your job involve risk (not necessarily physical)?

Yes. At times it involves a great deal of risk. And like motorcycling, we try to mitigate a portion of the risks with training and equipment.

 

[Carlo]

Back to the topic, please.

Oops. Sorry, animal and I live in different states, so we rarely get to ride together.
Actually, his poking fun at my apparent hypocracy does relate to the topic at hand.
I do like to ride fast. If I could afford frequent track days, I'd be doing them often, and knowing how much different fast riding on a track is compared to fast riding on the street, I'm a lot more careful and less willing to approach even the "70% limit" on the street than I was before I did my first track session.
But I still have my moments (a couple of which animalmutha alluded to). The reason this applies to the subject of risk is that I recognise the times and places where the risk involved in fast street riding is minimal (you fast BARFer's should take a trip to Eastern Oregon sometime) vs. the times and places where you're going have potential for getting in serious trouble.
Even if you like to go fast, risk management can work to your advantage.

 

[DataDan]

How the Risk Thermostat Works

So far in this thread, I've tried to make these points: Risk-taking is innately human. However, it is being systematically eliminated from our lives, while the desire persists. So we invent ways such as motorcycling to experience it. But our acceptance of risk isn't unlimited, and it isn't uniform. We tolerate it in different degrees depending on genes, age, and circumstances. We perceive it differently depending on our experiences. When it's excessive, we can turn it down. But if it's comfortably below the limit, we can increase it if there's something to be gained--more fun, or maybe just getting to work on time.

You may be with me so far but not exactly sure how these principles apply to motorcycling in any more than a theoretical way. Two excellent examples of changing risk tolerance can be found in the threads Perspective on FAST street riding and When should we stop riding? -- perspectives of an older rider. Both are from highly experienced riders who found that life had intruded on motorcycling and was changing their priorities. A good lesson to take from them is to think occasionally about the consequences of a motorcycle ride gone wrong. If things are changing in your life, let those changes inform your decisions about what you ride, how you ride, and who you ride with. You'll have more fun and you'll be less likely to get yourself into an uncomfortable and possibly dangerous situation if you're aware of the risk you're willing to take.

Since I started reading about risk a few years ago, I've collected forum posts that illustrate these ideas in compelling ways. A few of the ones below are from BARF but most are from elsewhere. They have been edited for grammar and length only. This one, like the two 1Rider threads, illustrates changing risk tolerance:

• In a tight left-hand turn I saw a dead raccoon in the middle of the road. I didn't hit it, but I totally lost concentration, ran out of road, and crashed. I was wearing full leathers, but when I got up I touched my shoulder and noticed a piece of bone sticking out. I just broke my collarbone. Somebody stopped and called an ambulance. Right then I knew I was done with motorcycles. That thought was reinforced when my wife and little girl stepped into the emergency room.

The other side of that coin is seen in someone who accepts a big dose of risk because he really likes going fast. Here are the thoughtful and well-expressed views of an experienced rider and club racer with a high threshold.

• The general consensus seems to recommend noobs to start off on 250's, always wear full leathers, always drive the speed limit, never push your limits, don't do this, don't do that. The problem I have is people telling me how to manage my risk. I bought a sportbike because they are fast as hell and I like to ride fast as hell. I like doing wheelies, stoppies, burnouts, speeding, passing cars with ease, racing friends, etc.--all the things that make riding a motorcycle fun for me. If I wanted to go slow and be safe, I would have bought a Volvo. The risk of this sport is what draws me to it. The safer it becomes the less excitement it has for me. If I wanted to do something fun yet safe I would be bowling or playing golf.

Even when tolerance for risk isn’t changing, riders experience revelations when they come to see the risk they're accustomed to in a different light:

• Two co-workers rode to lunch on beautiful, sunny Wednesday. One came back forever changed, but physically intact, after witnessing his friend's horrendous crash on a back road near where we work. While rounding a left-hand sweeper, his bike hit a line or gap where the pavement joins together, it stood up, and he couldn't regain control. He went straight off the turn, hit a ditch, launched through the air, and ended up against a rock and a fallen telephone pole. He is now in the hospital (being operated on as I write this) with multiple broken bones, broken back, and spinal cord damage.
  
  I'm ATGATT, and I don't ride beyond my abilities. I have a wife and 9 year old son that depend on me. If I had to shake off the fear of crashing every time I got on the bike, I wouldn't be riding one. But today is different. This has hit very close to home for me, and I now wonder if I fully and truly understood the risks. Now I can see what would happen to my family if I had the same misfortune on my weekly rides and I feel guilty looking into my garage at my bike when I come home at night.
  
  
• There have been three fatal accidents on the same road around here in about three weeks. In the first, a rider was going straight and a driver ran a stop sign, killing him and injuring his passenger. In the next, a driver turned left into a garden center in front of a motorcycle, and the rider who hit her was killed. The other day a speeder evading the police ran a stop sign and hit a motorcyclist. It seems like you can be riding safely with ATGATT, but if you are in the wrong place at the wrong time, your number is up. To be honest, this has shaken me up and I have cut back on my riding for a while. I know these are the risks we take when we ride, but sometimes it seems as if the risk ratio is changing.

Riders also discuss the adjustments they make to keep motorcycling acceptably safe:

• With the rash of accidents lately, in conjunction with my increasing age and responsibilities, I've been prompted to strongly consider changing my riding habits. I've always been a sportbike guy because I enjoy pushing it a little. However, it seems the consequences of a high-speed ejection get more and more severe in my mind. Do I choose a new style of streetbike for myself--something that won't tempt me to really ride the edge, yet will be satisfying in its own way--and get a track bike to get my speed fix? Do I retire myself to dirt only? Or do I continue to ride sportbikes but at a more relaxed pace that may be less fulfilling?
  
  
• Details are a bit sketchy right now, but I just found out a fellow rider and friend I work with was killed this morning on the way to work. According to the information I have at the moment, someone turned in front of him while they were entering the highway. He was a fantastic guy that always had a smile on and would make ya laugh if you were having a crappy day.
  
  A reply to the original post succinctly suggests a way to reduce risk:
  
  Just 2 words to say about that: DON'T COMMUTE!

Here are two riders who see safety gear as their main way to adjust risk. I'll leave the discussion of gear as risk compensation for another thread.

• I was cruising on the freeway at less than 75 mph and took the exit at only about 10 miles an hour over the warning speed. I wasn't going fast because I didn't have any serious gear on besides my textile jacket, gloves, and helmet.
  
  
• I don't know what it is, but lately I've had a lot of close calls. Just today I was riding on our main street. Dumb-ass in a truck thinks, "Hey I'll merge to the right lane, no signal or anything, to go around this car, because I'm an impatient asshole!" That's just the most recent. All of these close calls have been making me want to upgrade my gear, and better now than too late.

We all ponder our risks once in a while, but don't usually talk about them. Which is fine. Being aware of your thought processes is enough. But if you have some insight from personal experience that might help others, this would be a good place to share them.

 

[Aluisious]

Well, time for a bit more commentary on risk, having low sided on the street today. A simple momentary lapse of concentration was all that was required to put me in a situation where I was going too fast to stop safely for an intersection, at least at my skill level.

The basic fact that you can't get around is that when riding, if something goes wrong, the probable consequences are simply much worse than they would be if you were surrounded by a metal cage with four wheels. Cars don't fall over if you brake too hard, for the most part. Even if you do crash a car, the cage will absorb energy far better than any moto gear ever could.

 

[DataDan]

Aluisious wrote: A simple momentary lapse of concentration was all that was required to put me in a situation where I was going too fast to stop safely for an intersection, at least at my skill level.

I hope you're OK and your motorcycle is easily fixable.

Look on the bright side: Motorcycling just got a little safer for you.

According to the Paradox of Risk Perception (subject of an upcoming post): The more dangerous you think something is, the less dangerous it will actually be. That's because when something seems dangerous, you take extra precautions to make it safer--or, maybe you avoid the situation completely and reduce the risk (to you) to zero.

You've recalibrated your perception of the danger in a slight diversion of attention in traffic because you now have an unfortunate reminder of the consequences. So on your next ride you'll be a little more attentive and a little less likely to crash.

We all learn lessons this way. If not in an actual crash, then in a close call that's close enough to leave a (mental) impression. My first one was also due to inattention and overbraking. Cresting a hill at fairly low speed on a goat-trail type road, I saw a water crossing at the bottom of the hill, panicked, and braked as I crossed the stream. Which had a slippery, moss-covered bottom. You can picture the rest.

 

[littlebeast]

We all ponder our risks once in a while, but don't usually talk about them. Which is fine. Being aware of your thought processes is enough. But if you have some insight from personal experience that might help others, this would be a good place to share them.

kinda made me think of the 'what are you thinking' thread in KS. that thread is really fun, but not moto related. might be fun (and useful) to have something similar in the 1Rider forum. random thoughts are often thought-provoking just by themselves.

 

[kxmike]

I'm a big adrenaline junkie. I raced motocross for 25 years. I drag raced cars when I was younger. I was an expert downhill mountainbike racer for 5 years. I've ridden street bikes on /off for almost 40 yrs, and most recently this is my 4th year doing trackdays.
That being said....I'm not a big risk taker!. I have kids and grandkids. I have a mortgage to pay and a beautiful wife. The risks I take are calculated. I don't attempt something dangerous unless I know what I'm doing and it's within my skillset. I decrease the amount of risk involved by analyzing situations carefully and constantly trying to improve my skills. I don't thrive on doing the dangerous....I thrive on doing the dangerous well:cool.

 

[bojangle]

What do you think about the risk of motorcycling and about your own affinity or avoidance of risk? Here are a few questions to ponder:

• Compared to your non-motorcycling friends, do you consider yourself a risk taker or a risk avoider?
  
  
• Do you come from a risk-taking family? Were you a risk-taking kid?
  
  
• What other kinds of recreational activities do you enjoy?
  
  
• Does your job involve risk (not necessarily physical)? If you trade commodity futures for a living, you may get a bigger hit of that dopamine reward in a typical trading day than you ever get while riding.

Well, considering that most of my friends are either police officers, motorcycle riders, or both, I would say I am about the same. I would consider myself a risk taker, but not a daredevil.

I do not come from a risk taking family. I, on the other hand, was a risk taker as a kid. I remember "getting lost" on bicycle rides around the city on narrow roads with cars whizzing by. I once free climbed a big natural rock wall with a friend using no climbing gear. I got stuck for a long time and was scared as all hell. A fall to the rocky bottom would mean definite serious injury, possible death. I had a blast riding friends' mini bikes and go carts.

I love alpine skiing. Speed is part of the appeal.

I am a police officer so yes, my job involves physical risk to my personal safety.

I absolutely believe everyone has a risk thermostat. I will vary greatly between those who thrive on taking risks and those who avoid risks at all costs. I believe that the risks actually stays about the same in the activities I enjoy, such and skiing and motorcycle riding. I think the extra skills and experience gained over time are offset by additional speed and technical difficulty levels of the routes I choose to partake in.

I do not like the feeling of being out of control. If that happens while riding or skiing, I will slow down and concentrate more. If it happens on the job, I will quickly try to take control of the situation at hand.

In order to improve in skiing and riding, I would push myself up to my comfort zone, but try not to go beyond that. If conditions are ideal (road, weather, slope, traffic, etc.) and I am feeling mentally sharp, I will tend to push things a little more. If things are less than ideal, I will hold back. In this way, I am remaining in my comfort zone and probably experiencing close to the same level of risk.

 

[GAJ]

According to the Paradox of Risk Perception (subject of an upcoming post): The more dangerous you think something is, the less dangerous it will actually be. That's because when something seems dangerous, you take extra precautions to make it safer--or, maybe you avoid the situation completely and reduce the risk (to you) to zero.

An example of this, at least for me, and I'm sure others might disagree, is that of my three bikes listed, I think I'm MORE CAUTIOUS on the literbike with its 70+ lb/ft of torque at hand. I actually think I ride MORE AGGRESSIVELY on the DRZSM. Weird.

As to risk, I owned a small business for 25 years that we sold in June of last year with 200 employees and 7 retail sites; talk about risk!

Owning a labor intensive business in the litigious state of CA is not risky; it's insane!

Oh, and I smoke cigarettes.

But, am I the only one that adjusts their riding "style" or mental "state" depending on which bike they're riding of the several they might have in the garage?

The only bike I've solo crashed in the past 35 years was a Nighthawk 750 which I had setup the suspension to be able to ride aggressively, (you know the whole "riding a slow bike fast" routine).

Maybe if I'd replaced the single pathetic front disc with a dual setup I wouldn't have met that nice barbed wire fence on Roberts Road in Petaluma!

Doh! :wow

 

[Z3n]

But, am I the only one that adjusts their riding "style" or mental "state" depending on which bike they're riding of the several they might have in the garage?

No. I ride much more sedately on bigger bikes on the street. I tend to be a bit of a maniac on anything small and light, and a fair bit more measured and mature on anything that's bigger and more powerful. Stuff happens a lot faster on bigger bikes, so I ride more cautiously with that in mind, which shoehorns nicely into what datadan says...you minimize risk on something that's more dangerous, and it ends up being safer overall. Your crash is a good example of that too.

 

[Cheyenne]

• Compared to your non-motorcycling friends, do you consider yourself a risk taker or a risk avoider?
  
• Do you come from a risk-taking family? Were you a risk-taking kid?
  
• What other kinds of recreational activities do you enjoy?
  
• Does your job involve risk (not necessarily physical)?

I take more risks on the road, and less most other places. Increasingly I risk confrontations with other people, something that I didn't have the courage for previously.

We took a lot of stupid risks, as a family my mother (single parent) got us into dangerous places and situations, or caused them. I was very risk averse, pretty much afraid of the world.

Driving fast. Reading.

Job is not dangerous.

The only thing that keeps me going, is being willing to die. Going from being a scared kid who let others bully him to someone who is ready to fight to the death any time has not left me in a mental state that allows me to see risk in a rational way. It is something for me to beat, another way to face death without blinking, and to reassure myself that I'm worthy of living today, but ONLY because I'm ready to die. I don't go looking for risk other than riding/driving though, so I'm not a thrill seeker so much. Taking risks going fast makes me feel calm and peaceful...I don't like adrenalin rushes at all.

Someone already mentioned being in control, I think the need to be in control is what started me on the road to going fast...it bothered me a lot that I wasn't comfortable sliding my car at freeway speeds. It made everyday driving feel too risky...I need a lot of control in my life, and hate change.

I repeatedly, vividly visualize myself dying, or being injured various ways.

Hopefully, when my time comes, I will be helping someone in my passing, and I'm split on if I'd like to be fighting, or driving.

 

[DataDan]

I don't go looking for risk other than riding/driving though, so I'm not a thrill seeker so much. Taking risks going fast makes me feel calm and peaceful...I don't like adrenalin rushes at all.

What kind of riding do you do to get that "calm and peaceful" feeling?

Can you describe a typical situation that you consider risky and find satisfying?

As you see it, where is the risk specifically? Is it in the uncertainty about the capabilities of the machine, is it of your own skill, or is it in randomess due to the environment or other road occupants?

On a motorcycle, the potential for severe injuries in a crash is much higher than in a car. But in a car the potential for harming someone else or doing a lot of property damage is higher. How do you sort out in your mind the possible consequences?

 

[Cheyenne]

What kind of riding do you do to get that "calm and peaceful" feeling?

Can you describe a typical situation that you consider risky and find satisfying?

As you see it, where is the risk specifically? Is it in the uncertainty about the capabilities of the machine, is it of your own skill, or is it in randomess due to the environment or other road occupants?

On a motorcycle, the potential for severe injuries in a crash is much higher than in a car. But in a car the potential for harming someone else or doing a lot of property damage is higher. How do you sort out in your mind the possible consequences?

Good questions, take my answers with salt, as it's possible that I am a partial sociopath. If so, this distorts my sense of responsibility.

Can this apply to cars as well? I don't push as hard on the bike, as I'm still skill limited to non sliding situations.

Calm and peaceful is dealing with corner after corner, at the edge of traction, preferably in the rain, with a smooth rhythm. This is for the car. On a bike, I'm limited to cornering at 100% of my traction sensing ability. I just don't have the skill to push past that, but it sure feels a lot riskier than the same learning curve in cars! But if I can keep it up for several corners it's nice. I'm not really good enough on a bike to have the same feeling I get in a car...I'm just enjoying the simple joy of being on a bike...and just being in traffic still has some risk feel too it, although it's passing quickly.

Risky and satisfying. In the car Having the rear end snap loose going into the big gravity bowl S curve going North on 17, correcting one handed without spilling my coffee, no heart rate increase. Nothing is as satisfying as dealing with an event like that without having to think, and without raising my heart rate.

The risk is a combination of errors I could make, or the environment. I put capabilities of the machine under errors I could make, as it's my responsibility to both control it, and to be aware of it's limitations. The environment is the primary challenge, and part of why I'll always love the road more than the track. The risk, is the challenge I guess. Also I count other road users as part of the environment.

As for consequences, the car is more serious than the bike of course. If I get hurt on the bike, I will almost certainly feel that it's my fault. Were I unable to care for my family I would feel badly for them, but ultimately I need to live for me, and as riding and driving are what is most meaningful to me, and I have limited time on the planet. If I don't make me ride, who will?

In the car I do have some concerns about hurting others, and I don't think I would be able to be alright with having killed people...but...

I deleted a lot of what I wrote here...suffice it to say, it's very important to me to not have feelings that would prevent me from killing ANYONE who I feel I need to kill, including myself. This is the only way I can live in our world. I must be ready to kill or die at all times. I'm not a mentally healthy person...but I'm much better off than I was before I did a lot of work to fix myself up some. I'm still surprised I made it this far.

So I go past the limits of prudence, knowing that I may cause tragedy for myself or for others. On the other hand I am prepared to drive into a pole, or off a cliff, rather than take someone else out, and I visualize such in my "escape plans" for various driving situations, but I sure can't be 100% certain that I will make that choice if the situation presents. I also have saved a few people from serious injury who put themselves in my path (violating my right of way, not innocents pulling out of a driveway while I'm speeding) by being able to avoid a collision. I usually drop my speed to pass people with less speed differential, and anticipate them coming into my lane. I do not get "cut off" in traffic. Sometimes people may move in front of me with little space to spare, but if there's room for a car, then you're welcome to merge. People will try to merge into my lane...I just look at them until they finally see me, and hopefully they don't lose control getting back into their lane. Being calm in these situations is part of my payoff. It's a give and take, but I can't justify it...it's not a morally defensible position.

So my feelings about the risk I cause to others are a balance of my real desire to not hurt anyone, and my desperate need to be able to hurt anyone. I don't think it's very fair to blame everyone for the few jerks who treated me badly in grades k-11. It's not their fault I was a wuss. It's not their fault I was either raised wrong or damaged by the drugs I got in the womb. But I don't feel the same as other people do (Or maybe I do, I don't know) and I also don't think my relationship with risk, life and death is the same as other's.

If you ride or drive "too fast" on the street ever, I encourage you to think strongly about how you feel about killing other people. With all my driving experience (7500+ hours PUSHING IT, and that is a conservative estimate) I am all for lower speed limits, and better driver training. It seems absolutely crazy to me that we speed along on the highways the way we do. I'm comfortable with it...but I don't understand how everyone who isn't prepared to be sideways at 60+ MPH deals with it.

Sorry to be so heavy, but it's nice to write about, as I do think about it a lot.

 

[GAJ]

Cheyenne, when I took my classes at Sears Point with Bob Bondurant, they never had us drive with a cup of coffee in one hand.

They would have frowned on that.

Maybe you should rethink that.

 

[Cheyenne]

Cheyenne, when I took my classes at Sears Point with Bob Bondurant, they never had us drive with a cup of coffee in one hand.

They would have frowned on that.

Maybe you should rethink that.

Yeah, me and the Bob guys had a big arguement about that...we wanted to settle it driving 'vettes around the track with our knees while making origami cranes, and then determine a winner based on how many cranes were folded, divided by lap times, and some other math crap.

Stupid insurance company said "No Way!"

Please don't tell me your class was in the little formula cars...duh, you can't take coffee in those. No place to plug in the warmer cup!!!

Also, last time I was in a car (Corvette) with an instructor, he ruined my concentration screaming "BRAKES BRAKES BRAKES" in my ear.

Then I got in a fight with the stability control, which cuts in late, as I was already correcting the tail out situation, and then leaves the power off for far too long...at least .75 seconds more than needed. Also the car is underpowered and didn't turn in as well as I would have liked.


For those that are humor impaired, the Bondurant stuff is not true, the stuff about being disappointed by the corvette is.

Seriously, I'm in a Ford Taurus, and not a SHO...it's limits are reached completely by 75MPH on many corners on 17. What would I use another hand for? That's barely moving. Just because the car is sliding and bucking is no reason to move the steering wheel more than needed. I can't think of any other reason to have my hands on the wheel, just steering. Of course I use both hands if I'm going to run near my limits. I also often use just my fingertips to try to get some more traction feel out of my contact with the wheel, but I'm not sure if it's actually any better than the usual competition style grip.

:teeth

 

[GAJ]

I barely fit my skinny ass in that Formula Vee car the third time I was there...and I was 20 pounds lighter than my near 200 now.

That was when I discovered that, no, I wasn't even CLOSE to being a fast guy in an open wheel car.

Sure was fun though...twenty years ago when Sears Point was still Sears Point.

The scariest part of all the courses I took there?

The "demo lap" around the track in the school van with 8 people in it.

The instructor chatting to us calmly over his shoulder while doing four wheel drifts in that top heavy beast!

Scared the crap out of us!

 

[Cheyenne]

Quietly, as we're off topic here...

My first trip around Laguna was in a van, as a passenger during the lunch break for a safe driving class. Tipping down into the corkscrew for the first time, Wow, that's a drop!


Back to Risk. I like to drive near the limit, it makes me feel safe, knowing it can't sneak up on me.There is nothing like sliding the front around 2-3% to know EXACTLY how much traction there is.

How is it that people crash on roads like 17 that are so wide? I almost can't imagine it (knock on wood). What risk did they fail to accommodate? Only a moron would feel safe on a road with so many crash scars on the divider, right?

Am I hiding the risk from myself, or am I dulled to it because I've been there too many times? Who tempts fate more, the person who cruises sedately, but can't react correctly when things go wrong, or the crazed loser in the Taurus who thinks he's Ayrton Senna? Are we actually at the same risk, just for different reasons?

 

[kxmike]

Seriously, I'm in a Ford Taurus, and not a SHO...it's limits are reached completely by 75MPH on many corners on 17. What would I use another hand for? That's barely moving. Just because the car is sliding and bucking is no reason to move the steering wheel more than needed. I can't think of any other reason to have my hands on the wheel, just steering. Of course I use both hands if I'm going to run near my limits. I also often use just my fingertips to try to get some more traction feel out of my contact with the wheel, but I'm not sure if it's actually any better than the usual competition style grip.

:teeth

I commute over Hopland Grade (Hwy175) daily in my Honda Civic and drive the same way. I can push the front and slide through turns with one arm out the window:laughing. Alot of the people driving that road are scared shitless going 25mph :rolleyes. but because of the skill I have developed and the intimacy in which I know the road (and my car)....I don't see myself taking a greater risk than them.

 

[DataDan]

The Paradox of Risk Perception

Danger is everywhere when you're on a motorcycle, but awareness of the danger can reduce your risk.


We usually think of risk as independent of the person who experiences it. In craps, there's a 1-in-6 chance of rolling a seven no matter who has the dice. But that's just simple probability. The risk to each player at the table is different because they make their own decisions on how much to wager. One bettor feels lucky and puts a big stack of blue chips on the line. With so much to lose, his risk is high. A player who thinks the roller is a loser bets only a few bucks, so her risk is low. Another takes his chips and walks away, reducing his risk to zero. The dice obey the laws of probability, but each player adjusts his or her risk based on a unique perception of the opportunity or danger.

The same is true for risk on a motorcycle. As you approach a blind turn, there's a chance it will tighten up or be covered with gravel at the exit. Someone with time on his hands (or a project assignment for stats class) could sample turns on Mt. Hamilton or Calaveras Road to estimate the probability that they tighten unexpectedly or are gravel-strewn just beyond the entry sightline. But, as with rolling dice, that's just the simple probability. Your risk depends on how much you bet on a clean surface and a friendly radius. If you expect an unpleasant surprise around the next outcropping, you'll slow down and take a line that gives you options if a hazard is revealed, so your risk is relatively low. But if you feel lucky--or if you don't think about it at all--you'll enter faster and commit to an aggressive line, so your risk will be higher.

That's the Paradox of Risk Perception: The more dangerous you think something is, the less dangerous it will actually be. Danger exists in the environment independent of your perception, but your risk from that danger depends on your expectations and adjustments.

The Paradox affects every decision you make about danger in motorcycling. As you approach a car waiting to turn left, your awareness of the danger reduces your risk. You've read about such crashes and developed countermeasures, so when you encounter the situation, you're prepared and thus less likely to become a victim.

If you're considering commuting by motorcycle, your awareness of the danger present in heavy traffic reduces your risk. You develop defensive tactics. You might take a less congested route than you do when driving. You might choose to ride to work only when you can travel at off-peak hours. Or you might find that there's not enough reward for the added risk and decide not to commute by motorcycle after all.

You've seen enough pictures of the aftermath of crashes where the rider was wearing shorts, a t-shirt, and flip-flops to know all you need to know about crashing without good protective gear. So you wear good gear on every ride.

You know that maximum braking and emergency swerving can turn a serious crash into a mere oh-shit! moment, but you also know that they are perishable skills. So you practice regularly or take refresher training.

Knowledge is power. And in knowledge of motorcycling risk is the power to make riding safer.

 

[beginner]

In earlier years I was a bareback cross country rider and an outdoor inline speedskater. Both of these have risks that are managed with judgement and skills. Afer a few years of no riding or skating it seemed I was loosing my edge, losing track of myself physically. I've had a risky sport all my life, I needed that back. The best fit for the moment was the motorcycle and it works for me just like the horses and the skates.

But I'm also risk averse. Riding the bike is a discipline, not an indulgence. The same was true with horses and skates. I love riding but I hate being stupid. If the worst happens and I'm laying there gasping my last breaths I'll forgive myself for bad luck but not for stupidity.

I'm perfectly happy to putz around and ride below my ability out in the open and keep the "risky" stuff in the parking lot and practice yard where the chances of a life changing injury are smaller.