Risky Business

[DataDan]

Risk is part of riding a motorcycle. That doesn’t mean you have to be a daredevil, but you do have to accept more of it than the average person does. In this thread, I’m going to discuss some ideas about risk-taking in motorcycling. As you might expect, my take isn’t quite the same as you’ll get from MSF or David Hough (whose book Proficient Motorcycling covers the subject well, BTW). Instead, I’m going to try to show that enjoyment of risk is an inherent human trait. I’ll describe a model of risk-taking in which we continuously adjust risk to keep it at an acceptable level. And I’ll try to persuade you to reduce your risk by analyzing your mistakes and those of other riders and other motorists.


A recent Time Magazine article asserts that “risk-taking, by definition, defies logic,” and according to the article, risky behavior is driven by the release of dopamine, the body’s feel-good chemical. Why would Mother Nature play that dirty trick on us—basically encouraging harmful behavior? When we take risks, we're likely to get hurt or die, making it less likely our genes will survive into the next generation. Yet the trait evolved and persists, so can it really be so illogical? Risk-taking must have an upside that outweighs the downside.

When you think about it, progress throughout human history can be seen as a result of risk-taking. Our species evolved in African woodlands, but in just a hundred thousand years or so spread to five other continents with environments so different they might as well be different planets. Along the way we tamed animals to carry our stuff and ourselves, learned to hunt frighteningly large game, and sailed across vast oceans to distant lands. All of this exploration and environment-taming involved risk. So in much of the past, the real danger wasn’t in the risk of the unknown, it was in stagnating while others discovered new habitats and invented ways to exploit them. No wonder Mother Nature came to favor and reward risk.

We are, in fact, a species bred to take risks. But modern society tries to legislate and regulate it out of our lives, and most people—like the Time reporter—can’t even grasp why an affinity for risk-taking exists. So in our over-padded, warning-labeled world, we have to invent ways to enjoy risk. We skydive, we climb sheer rock faces, we drop down into 20-foot waves just ahead of a collapsing wall of water. And, of course, we ride motorcycles.

But enjoying a bit of risk doesn’t mean giving in blindly to the thrill-seeking urge. We have limits, which vary widely from one person to the next, and we adjust the actual risk we experience to keep it within our personal limits. I'll describe the theory of risk compensation in a later post.


What do you think about the risk of motorcycling and about your own affinity or avoidance of risk? Here are a few questions to ponder:

• Compared to your non-motorcycling friends, do you consider yourself a risk taker or a risk avoider?
  
  
• Do you come from a risk-taking family? Were you a risk-taking kid?
  
  
• What other kinds of recreational activities do you enjoy?
  
  
• Does your job involve risk (not necessarily physical)? If you trade commodity futures for a living, you may get a bigger hit of that dopamine reward in a typical trading day than you ever get while riding.

 

[littlebeast]

What do you think about the risk of motorcycling and about your own affinity or avoidance of risk? Here are a few questions to ponder:

• Compared to your non-motorcycling friends, do you consider yourself a risk taker or a risk avoider?
  
  
• Do you come from a risk-taking family? Were you a risk-taking kid?
  
  
• What other kinds of recreational activities do you enjoy?
  
  
• Does your job involve risk (not necessarily physical)? If you trade commodity futures for a living, you may get a bigger hit of that dopamine reward in a typical trading day than you ever get while riding.

great subject. personally, i think the more we, as a society, try to eliminate risk from our daily lives, the more we inhibit our individual and collective ability to deal constructively with risk. and as you pointed out - throughout human history, risk has led to progress.

to answer your specific questions:

Compared to your non-motorcycling friends, do you consider yourself a risk taker or a risk avoider? i have always thought of myself as a risk avoider - but apparently - by comparison to many of the people i know, i'm probably more of a risk manager. (my idea of risk and theirs tends to differ wildly.)

Do you come from a risk-taking family? Were you a risk-taking kid? maybe. didn't seem so at the time. but in retrospect, maybe.

What other kinds of recreational activities do you enjoy? spent years riding horses (jumpers) competitively. suffered significantly more (serious) injuries than with motos.

Does your job involve risk (not necessarily physical)? If you trade commodity futures for a living, you may get a bigger hit of that dopamine reward in a typical trading day than you ever get while riding. my job involves huge risk. but it's 'other people's money'. does that count?

 

[Z3n]

What do you think about the risk of motorcycling and about your own affinity or avoidance of risk? Here are a few questions to ponder:

• Compared to your non-motorcycling friends, do you consider yourself a risk taker or a risk avoider?

• 
  
  I'm a risk realist. The risk is there and I accept that, but I also understand that I love riding and the potential for injury is not enough for me to give that up. So I minimize risk via training, gear, and smart riding, and call it good.
  
  
  

  [*]Do you come from a risk-taking family? Were you a risk-taking kid?

  
  Just the usual idiocy on a bicycle, some road rash, bit of stupidity in cars, but nothing out of the ordinary.
  
  
  

  [*]What other kinds of recreational activities do you enjoy?

  
  At the moment bicycling and video games. I've dabbled to a minor or major amount in some other ones over the years...skydiving, skating, surfing, martial arts, pole vaulting, cross country, violin/viola, bass, piano.
  
  
  

  [*]Does your job involve risk (not necessarily physical)? If you trade commodity futures for a living, you may get a bigger hit of that dopamine reward in a typical trading day than you ever get while riding.

Nope. Work IT, biggest thing I'm concerned about is a server going down or getting compromised at a bad time.

 

[island4bobo]

• Compared to your non-motorcycling friends, do you consider yourself a risk taker or a risk avoider?
  
• Do you come from a risk-taking family? Were you a risk-taking kid?
  
• What other kinds of recreational activities do you enjoy?
  
• Does your job involve risk (not necessarily physical)? If you trade commodity futures for a living, you may get a bigger hit of that dopamine reward in a typical trading day than you ever get while riding.

[/QUOTE]

I think I'm considered a risk taker, but I don't see myself as a risk-taker.
I just seek change more than most of my peers. I definitely don't see myself as an adrenaline-junkie. But I do think I seek adventure, in some of its forms.

My father was a huge risk taker, as a solitary immigrant and career-changer. My mother was the tough, stable one.

I used to scuba dive, have sky-dived, played football, did martial arts.

I'm in the twilight of a high-risk career, one of the oldest dudes in my biz. But statistically few people in my job get hospitalized, fewer killed. But it does happen. But we like to think we're on top of things -- in control of our own situations. We believe that risk is mitigated by scenario visualization, preparation, experience, and practice at remaining calm and centered and focused.....from what I hear, similar to riders.

Personally, I'm MUCH more worried about being crippled than being killed. I don't have a family who depends on me for their well being.

 

[masameet]

I think using risk as a measure as to why we do things is just another gauge of human activity. And sure, dopamine is undoubtedly the chemical reward (and which we ascribe the sensation, "It feels good!", and the belief we're having fun). Still I believe it's mastery, the human need to achieve certain levels of skill, that is the reason we continue in an activity, whether it be for a high-risk activity such as motorcycling or a seemingly small-risk activity like sex. (And I suppose it could be argued that engaging in an emotional relationship with another human being is the ultimate risk-taking activity, with the rewards being many and definitely instantly gratifying and the downsides humiliating and emotionally painful.)

My past physical activities -- road bicycling, running, skiing, bowling, sailing -- didn't seem exceptionally risk-taking at the time. Always wanted to try hang-gliding -- would drive up to Ft. Funston and watch hang-gliders take off and soar over the cliffs above the Pacific Ocean -- but I was too shy to ask questions. After I returned to college, I took photojournalism classes and found I was decent at taking photographs. At that time and even today, for me photography allows me to get out of myself and meet people. Motorcycling is my excuse to get out of the house. Spending time at the local shooting range and firing my pistols is definitely all fun as well.

My parents didn't engage in physical sports. They were immigrants to the U.S. and were fairly successful in becoming Americans. As a Filipino Scout for the American Army during WWII, Dad survived the Japanese bombing of Corregidor and then the Bataan Death March. After WWII, he became a U.S. citizen and a career Army non-com. Mom had no skills whatsoever when she married him just a couple of days after leaving her teenage years. She had to learn to cook (she was a wonderful cook and baker by the time I came along), deal with lots of dead infants (she watched six of her babies die and had one miscarriage), and a husband who apparently beat her until he started taking it out on us.

I remember when I was 4 years old. We were living in Germany at the time (Bad Nauheim, I think). It was wintertime and I wanted to go outside and ride the tricycle I'd inherited from my older siblings. Mom said No! Still I put on my winter clothes, opened the glass door to the small patio adjoining our apartment, picked up the heavy tricycle, heaved it over the balcony steel railing to the ground below our 1st floor apartment, and then climbed over the railing and jumped. I must've been all of 2.5 feet tall at the time. :laughing Mom said she got a good laugh watching me tricycle on the snow-covered sidewalk outside.

After that, Dad started beating me so I learned not to take risks. Until I was 19, when I was going to SF State and working a few hours at the local McDonald's and saved enough money to buy my first 10-speed bicycle. When Dad found out about my bicycle, bought with my own money, he tried bullying me into returning it. Later, as an adult, I considered riding a motorcycle. But it wasn't until after he died that I decided to learn how to ride and then buy a motorcycle.

 

[Zeb]

“[R]isk-taking, by definition, defies logic...” Time magazine.

No. Taking a risk implies analysis. It's impossible to say "it's risky" without having considered consequences. Accepting a risk is using logic to decide the potential positive outcome is good enough to be worthwhile, or that the negative outcome isn't reason enough to preclude the act.

I'd like to see DataDan's questions asked across a wider population. How risk is perceived as "sexy" or "stupid" will be interesting in many groups across a wide spectrum from church bingo games to naked base jumping stunterz.

anyhow

1) I suppose I'm more of a risk taker than most of my nonmotorcycling friends, but it's informed risk. As opposed to some idiot friends who drive fast poorly and crash often, or who see how much drugs their system can tolerate.

2) Dad was a pilot and taught me rock climbing. I guess those can be considered risky. But each thing I've learned has been with the goal of minimizing risk (while still having fun). Mom smokes and drives an Italian sports car-- I guess that's risky. I lost my two front teeth as a kid by pedalling around a sharp turn and pogoing the pedal into the pavement. But I've also had a lot fewer accidents and injuries than a number of childhood friends who wouldn't be identified as risk takers.

3) Recreational Activities: Skydiving (pack my own chute), motorcycling, open water swimming, mountain biking, triathlon, skiing, scuba, ex-Burning Man, aikido and iaido, partying, reading, hot tub, and reading in the hot tub.

4) Job Risk: Everything I do is a one off, so I'm always wondering what the next thing is. A lot of things I've done were chosen simply cuz I wondered if I could do 'em. And I'll admit a lot of vocational dopamine-driven events.

But in all of my dopamine diving practice, I'm avoiding senseless risk, and minimizing avoidable risk. In example, my first skydive was after an eight hour class and a day of practice. I had two 10,000 jump instructors holding onto me until I pulled the chute. Contrast that with most people's first (tandem) jump experience of getting strapped to a skydiver they don't know and hoping that person knows what they're doing. Yikes, that terrifies me. I'm comfortable taking an informed risk in my own hands, and am amazed at the number of people who regularly put the decision in the hands of another.

Risk assessment is a logical endeavor.
Poor risk assessment is "watch this, hold my beer!"
Skilled risk assessment allows a lot of new experiences not ending in hospital bills, jail, or death.
How well you can distinguish between the two?
That's the challenge.

 

[DataDan]

littlebeast wrote: i have always thought of myself as a risk avoider - but apparently - by comparison to many of the people i know, i'm probably more of a risk manager. (my idea of risk and theirs tends to differ wildly.)

Z3N wrote: I'm a risk realist. The risk is there and I accept that, but I also understand that I love riding and the potential for injury is not enough for me to give that up. So I minimize risk via training, gear, and smart riding, and call it good.

island4bobo wrote: I think I'm considered a risk taker, but I don't see myself as a risk-taker

Zeb wrote: I suppose I'm more of a risk taker than most of my nonmotorcycling friends, but it's informed risk.

Most people don't see themselves as risk-takers—at least not as engaging in excessive risk.

That's because we don't have an absolute scale to measure the risk we take. We have an internal scale on which it registers somewhere between boring and uncomfortable. And we can compare ours to the risks we see others taking. But if we’re acting rationally to adjust the risk we experience to a level we tolerate, we don't consider it risky.

The inability to judge our own riskiness creates a problem for efforts like 1Rider to make motorcyclists safer. How do you tell someone to ride “safer”? All we know is whether we’re in our comfort zone, and when we are, we consider that safe enough. So persuading someone to ride more safely would entail recalibration of their internal scale. What used to be "comfortable" must become "uncomfortable." That happens sometimes (see the thread Perspective on FAST street riding), but it isn’t something that can be induced with ordinary methods of persuasion.

island4bobo wrote: I do think I seek adventure, in some of its forms.

masameet wrote: I believe it's mastery, the human need to achieve certain levels of skill, that is the reason we continue in an activity...

Call it adventure or mastery of a skill, but in motorcycling if you fail to master the skill, you’ll crash, and part of the adventure is the possibility of injury. Unlike a video game, the possible consequences are real, which raises the experience to a higher level.


To sum up, I think we need to embrace our inner risk-takers. That doesn't mean we're all daredevils. It just means that the heightened awareness we experience when riding and the demands it makes on our senses and skills is part of the attraction. Riding quickly but safely on a mountain road—or just safely in town—demands our best, both physically and mentally, and we enjoy that demand. Staying aware of the situation, assessing threats, developing contingency plans, taking evasive action, then patting ourselves on the back for a job well done produces the same kind of satisfaction that other mentally stressful pastimes do. But when you dig deeper, you’re left with the unavoidable fact that one main objective of all that cerebral activity is to avoid crashing.

 

[Burning1]

Well, I do consider myself a risk taker. Perhaps to a lesser degree than others who ride, but I would suspect I take risks above the American mean. I find that life is most enjoyable when I'm trying new things, challenging myself, and gently pushing the limits. Unfortunately, the risk of failure when riding a motorcycle often ranges from embarrassment, to equipment repairs, to death.

On the street, I focus on risk management. Rather than trying to find the maximum speed through a road, I challenge myself to improve my braking, or work on the perfect lines. If I'm going to risk a crash, I prefer to do it by riding in the rain rather than dodging guardrails at 120. I'd rather pull a tight U-turn, rather than risk hitting my knee on the bots dots.

To me, risks means reaching for a reward, when failure carries a price. By that definition, everything incurs risks. If I play a game of MotoGP, I take the risk of frustrating myself and wasting my time, likewise, If I pull a wheelie between cars, I risk stacking my bike and being and running over.

The real issue, in my opinion, is to weigh the risks against the reward. I'd be willing to risk probable death in order to make the world a much better place. I would not be willing to risk my life for a piece of yummy cake*. Likewise, I'd spend a few hours playing Gituar Hero for a little bit of enjoyment. I wouldn't risk waisting my time playing Barbie's Super Fun Adventure! in the hopes that it turns out out to be a pleasurable gaming experience.

For me, the risks of motorcycling are worth the experiences, friendships, and pleasure I enjoy through the process. I manage my risks so that they aren't out of line with the rewards.

A quote I like is that given enough time, enough people, or enough opportunity, the improbable becomes inevitable. I'd like to keep my risk of death on the improbable side of the equation. It'll never be impossible to die on a motorcycle, but it doesn't have to be inevitable.

Oh, and by the way: The cake is a lie.

 

[tzrider]

Most people don't see themselves as risk-takers—at least not as engaging in excessive risk.

That's because we don't have an absolute scale to measure the risk we take. We have an internal scale on which it registers somewhere between boring and uncomfortable. And we can compare ours to the risks we see others taking. But if we’re acting rationally to adjust the risk we experience to a level we tolerate, we don't consider it risky.

As people become better at a potentially dangerous activity, they can participate at a level that would freak a person with less experience. I'd wager that most people who aren't impaired do the things they do at least expecting to survive. People who have become successful in one risky activity seem to take more easily to other ones.

My willingness to throw caution to the wind in order to improve quickly has diminished, notably when I had kids. I used to force improvement by deciding to be braver, where I now am much more incremental about it. But I still do things that others in my social circle would consider risky.

For me, risk taking has been driven by a desire to be self reliant. When I was younger, I think some of it was a process of discovery; of finding out what I was made of. Now, it takes the form of allowing me to accomplish things or have experiences I otherwise could not.

Other than motorcycling, some of the things I do in the name of fun include rock climbing, waterfall ice climbing, solo back country skiing, winter camping, traveling by sea kayak in the high Arctic and, oddly enough, felling big trees.

My job does not entail physical risk, but it carries the potential for undesirable outcomes as well as rewards.

 

[Carlo]

[*]Do you come from a risk-taking family? Were you a risk-taking kid?

[*]What other kinds of recreational activities do you enjoy?

[*]Does your job involve risk (not necessarily physical)? If you trade commodity futures for a living, you may get a bigger hit of that dopamine reward in a typical trading day than you ever get while riding.[/list]

I'm not much of a risk taker. I don't enjoy riding on public roads at 10/10ths, or anything approaching that figure. (I have done (and greatly enjoyed) that in the controlled environment of the track), because of all the uncertainties that exist on public roads.

I enjoy hiking, guitar playing, photography, swimming, canoing, skiing. Of those, most are relatively low risk activities, and I tend to be a pretty cautious skier. I'm not interested in skydiving or mountain climbing.

In my younger days, I worked in heavy construction, and actually enjoyed hanging off a building 200 feet in the air. But at the same time, I always made sure to employ available safety devices, and even followed the old rule; "one hand for my work, one hand for me" as often as possible. Now, I'm a computer geek, and the only risk I see is maybe getting fired for screwing something up.

I'd say I'm not a big risk taker, even though I'm aware there's risk involved in motorcycling. I've learned over the years that those risks are mostly managable.

 

[aminalmutha]

'nerd likes to risk taking on WRX's.

 

[Z3n]

'nerd likes to risk taking on WRX's.

more like WRecXs, amirite?

 

[Bikerbrad]

*Do you come from a risk-taking family? Were you a risk-taking kid?
*What other kinds of recreational activities do you enjoy?
*Does your job involve risk (not necessarily physical)? If you trade commodity futures for a living, you may get a bigger hit of that dopamine reward in a typical trading day than you ever get while riding.[/list]

My family is incredibly risk averse. I actually consider myself to be as well. I wouldn't ride if I really thought I was risking my life. My wife and I fought about this quite a bit. I don't know am I in denial? I finally bought an accidental life insurance policy to quiet her down a bit, I think it has more to do with her feeling heard than the actual monetary protection. If I live for 20 years I get all the premium back, so I look at it more like a savings acct. And it only cost me about $22/month --- a lot cheaper than couples counseling.

Other activities: Tennis, Raquetball, and swimming.

Work: I'm a Real Estate investor. Some might consider this risky too, but I look at it as a highly calculated form of speculation. So by the time I'm ready to pull the trigger, the only question is How much am I gonna make, not will I lose. So, again, I might be in denial, but I don't feel my work involves much risk.

By the way Dan, Great questions!

 

[Carlo]

'nerd likes to risk taking on WRX's.

Well, don't forget that I gave up the chase when we started getting into some traffic, and he was still doing 90+

 

[aminalmutha]

I seem to remember some 35mph zones on Hwy 1, too...

 

[Carlo]

I seem to remember some 35mph zones on Hwy 1, too...

Well, yeah, but i know that road a whole lot better than the road down from Whistler Mountain. Anyhow, weren't you leading the way on that ride?

 

[aminalmutha]

On 1 I was following you and liabubble most of the way. I took Juan on a detour thru Occidental.

 

[DataDan]

Back to the topic, please.

 

[Aluisious]

• Compared to your non-motorcycling friends, do you consider yourself a risk taker or a risk avoider?
  
  
• Do you come from a risk-taking family? Were you a risk-taking kid?
  
  
• What other kinds of recreational activities do you enjoy?
  
  
• Does your job involve risk (not necessarily physical)? If you trade commodity futures for a living, you may get a bigger hit of that dopamine reward in a typical trading day than you ever get while riding.

* I'm clearly a risk-taker compared to my non-moto friends. Physical risk, anyway.

* I come from a very risk-averse family. We're talking people who won't drive to San Francisco in case the car breaks down, and leave the house for any voyage beyond 25 miles with a multiple day supply of food, water, and emergency clothing. There was relatively little opportunity to do anything dangerous when I was a kid.

* Shooting is the only "risky" thing that comes to mind. Otherwise pretty tame stuff. A lot of shoot-em-up video games.

* Very little risk in my job. I might get shocked if I do something stupid, and that's about it.

Considering it objectively riding a motorcycle is a stupid thing to do, assuming you want to get through life in one piece. However I greatly enjoy the thrill of it and I'm willing to risk what would otherwise be a pretty boring life to do it. I mitigate the risks to an extent through gear, route selection, fellow-rider selection, and aversion to any speed that would require me to make heavy use of the brakes on public streets (riding the pace).

 

[DataDan]

The Risk Thermostat

Risk is always present when we ride motorcycles, but more for some than for others. We tolerate risk differently, we perceive it through the lens of personal experience, and we adjust it to our own comfort level.


In a typical summer, a rider might spend a week in the Sierras, crossing the passes and exploring paved goat trails that offer breathtaking scenery, but which can be treacherous; commute to work on his bike via Bay Area freeways; and do a track day or two to keep his skills sharp. Which kind of riding is riskiest?

The surprising answer is that they may be equally risky. The mountain roads are most dangerous, but he takes that into account, matching speed to the limited sightlines and watching carefully for gravel and water crossings. While the freeway has its own hazards, it's safer than mountain roads. But he rides more aggressively, taking advantage of the motorcycle's capabilities to avoid congestion and cut down commute time. The track is by far the safest riding environment of the three, but he accelerates and brakes harder, and he uses more grip and lean angle.

Like our hypothetical rider, we adjust our riding to the environment. When the road poses significant risk, we ride more conservatively. With less risk in the surroundings, we ride more aggressively. What remains constant, more or less, is our appetite for risk. The measure of risk we enjoy--more than boring but less than uncomfortable--governs how we ride.

This model of motorcycling risk, based on the theory of risk compensation, has three elements:

• Tolerance. Each of us tolerates risk to a different degree. Whether it's innate or learned, your personal comfort level is well established by the time you take up riding.
  
  
• Perception. Each of us perceives risk differently, both overall--the general risk of motorcycling--and in detail--the risk of taking a certain turn at a certain speed for example. Our perception is a product of a lifetime of experience. Mom and Dad hammered in certain ideas about safety and danger; others we acquire later in life (such as my personal demon, the greasy freeway off-ramp arrow).
  
  
• Compensation. Via a "risk thermostat" we adjust risk to keep the amount we perceive at a comfortable level. If it's too high, we lower it. If it's within our comfort zone, we might increase it if there's something to be gained. And we can reduce it to zero by staying home when conditions don't suit us.

Just a semi-obvious theory so far, but it also has practical applications for riding. If we accurately assess our own attitudes, the hazards and opportunities we face on the road, and the ways we adapt, we can get the most out of the ride while maintaining a comfortable level of risk. In upcoming posts, we'll look at risk tolerance, perception, and compensation in more detail--including some revealing examples from riders discussing their risk decisions.


Do you notice your risk thermostat at work?

What kinds of things make you feel uncomfortable about the risk in a situation? How do you react?

In what kinds of situations do you see an opportunity to increase risk while still keeping it in your comfort zone?