Don't Believe the AI Hype!

ZCrow

Well-known member
Am I the only one that has noticed just how unpredictable and slow the Ford Focus AI cars are in SF? I have had the displeasure of being behind one 2 or 3 times and each time the damn thing was unpredictable, slow and sloppy. Big data better get better quick because these barely deserve to be on the road right now much less the future.

I am sure it will get better but right now, they are pretty much Grey Dawn.


youtu.be/-fM5sWQlsjQ
 

Schnellbandit

I see 4 lights!
Mixing this type of tech in vehicles with human drivers will end up killing many of us and one is too many.

Big data can't solve problems that involve the unpredictability of human drivers, imo its an all or nothing. People can just change their mind about which way to turn based on absolutely nothing or just remembering they forgot milk at the store. No amount of technology can deal with the result when others are also doing the same thing.

The more we hope that AI in cars is going to benefit anyone but those producing the vehicles that have it the more disappointed we will be.
 

Gary856

Are we having fun yet?
These AI cars are like high school freshmen. They may be awkward and scrawny right now, but you’ll be surprised how fast they grow bigger, stronger and smarter.
 

Schnellbandit

I see 4 lights!
These AI cars are like high school freshmen. They may be awkward and scrawny right now, but you’ll be surprised how fast they grow bigger, stronger and smarter.

No argument there. The problem.is that no matter how sophisticated and capable AI gets, it will never be able to predict what some stressed out driver will do nor predict how others around them will react. Cars can only move in certain directions and I'm sure I'm not the only one who has heard of the term "deadly embrace". It happens with people too.

As vehicles other than motorcycles gain this technology, where does that leave us? Take the typical lane splitter and observe how quickly they react compared to car drivers. Its that quick reaction that provides some margin of safety. Now add in the mixture of AI cars with human drivers which are totally unpredictable and the motorcycle becomes an unfortunate statiatic.

My opinion only but I believe we as motorcyclists depend in our ability to react quicker than the typical car driver to make it to our destinations unscathed. Now we add another driver, one that can react quicker than we can but is still subjected to the slower actions and reactions of the typical human car driver and that puts motorcycles in an impossible position.

The AI car can serve only one master. The preservation of the motorcyclists life doesn't rate over the safety of the AI car owner.

Have we not seen human drivers decide to accept risk harmful to them to avoid harming others? The driver who swerves knowing they will collide with another car but seeing that the child running out into the street decides the greather benefit to their fellow human beings is to accept that risk? That is reasoning and AI, for all its ability to build upon experiences, can't come close to that.

No matter how vast the experience or the amount of data available to the AI car, it can't begin to compare to human reasoning and it is that reasoning that makes the difference in your ride home safely and you just being a data point to the AI in a car that doesn't care if you exist or not.
 

KazMan

2012 Fifty is Nifty Tour!
Staff member
I pretty much concur with your opinion 100% Schnell, but unfortunately, AI may be equal to or perhaps a bit higher percentage aware of surroundings than the masses glued to their phones who have no human reasoning as relates to the road.

ok, let's return to flaming AI :teeth
 

FreeRyde

The Curmudgeon
Crazy to me that these companies can alpha test this technology in public. Unregulated.

It's all about taxes my friends. Keeping companies in California for more dollar dollar bills ya'll!

Also, the learning curve is shortened exponentially with the cars driving on public roads. So what if a few people get run over in the process, 1-3 people get shot a day in Chicago, no one seems to care about that.
 
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Roadstergal

Sergeant Jackrum
AI may be equal to or perhaps a bit higher percentage aware of surroundings than the masses glued to their phones who have no human reasoning as relates to the road.

Sad but true. People don't want to pay attention, AI doesn't have a choice.
 

Schnellbandit

I see 4 lights!
I pretty much concur with your opinion 100% Schnell, but unfortunately, AI may be equal to or perhaps a bit higher percentage aware of surroundings than the masses glued to their phones who have no human reasoning as relates to the road.

ok, let's return to flaming AI :teeth

No argument there and given a choice of riding where all the cars were driven by AI systems and the mess we have now, I'd choose The AI cars every time.

In a pure AI car environment, it probabaly looks like slow moving cows headed through pasture, the flies buzzing all over (motorcycles) and the cows just slowly making their way to wherever. Then add in some yapping coyote (the car driver babbling on their phone) and all the cows go nuts and the flies get swatted around.

I'm all for AI controlled cars, its the mixture during the great experiment that is the problem.

I am sure that somewhere in the code and data, motorcyclists are scored as a value. I'd sure like to know that that value is and where from 0 to -100 it falls.:ride
 

ViperThreat

Well-known member
Back when I worked in Mountain View, I used to pass those google self-driving cars almost daily - they always had a person in them monitoring.

My only complaint was how freaking slow they were. Otherwise they were the best damn driving cars on the road.
 

NeilInPacifica

Well-known member
The time will come when these cars can predict with significantly greater accuracy and speed what human drivers are about to do. However, at some point after that they will know what the other cars are planning, because they will all be talking to each other - like a flock of birds in motion. When that happens what is slow today, will be scary fast.
 

Schnellbandit

I see 4 lights!
FYI ... list of autonomous car fatalities. The great experiment is going just fine. The great hype is haters hating it without looking at the data.

The numbers of auto-drive cars compared to the number of cars driven by humans doesn't even register on any scale. Its not about the miles driven by a specific cars or group of cars, more important imo is the number of cars.

Pick out 1000 expert drivers and use them as statistical relevant and they will compare to the typical driver very well. Throw them into the mix of hundreds of millions of cars being driven and suddenly it doesn't really make a difference.

It isn't the AI car, its the human drivers impacting how the AI car reacts and how the human driver reacts to every other driver.

The experiment so far is like testing a new drug on 100 people and then seeing it works on most deciding its okay to give to 10,000,000.

Put the AI cars in numbers of say 50% of the vehicle population where red light runners and tail end smashers are more the routine than the exception and then we can talk about how AI handles situations. So far, has that happened or are the numbers of AI controlled cars so small compared to the total that they are unlikely to ever experience those situations as a group of AI cars?

The idea of AI cars sharing data is nice except for one thing, standards. Are all car manufacturers using AI all going to subscribe to the same code base, vale all data the same way and interpret available actions and reactions the same way?

Are Google, Apple and the rest suddenly going to become the tightest of friends and agree that Microsoft or anyone else sets tje standard? I don't see that happening. There are standards for many things related to computer tech and tech in general but how will there ever be a standard for AI when the very nature of AI says the intelligence from one system can be different from another? If the systems are made to be that way then what some fear about AI is probably closer and truer than we can imagine.

Getting back to standards though, notice how the standards do not dictate how the data is used? One data point can mean one thing to one system and completely something else to another.

IOW, is the value placed on the super wealthy person heading across the bridge the same as the minimum wage barista? Has anything in our collective knowledge convinced us that both will be given the same value?

So where does the motorcyclist fit in? So far, has any company developing and testing AI cars been willing to reveal in any transparent manner how the the motorcyclist is perceived by the AI controlling those cars?

BTW, just how is the AI in those cars going to share data with the motorcycle?


I'm not against AI cars, I just see a nearly zero transparency in how AI cars see the motorcycle.
 
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ZCrow

Well-known member
Crazy to me that these companies can alpha test this technology in public. Unregulated.

It is just like lane sharing used to be. If there is no law or regulation addressing it, it is legal. Despite what the current Administration spews, regulations save lives and protect the average Joe from the actions of those with too much power.

It's all about taxes my friends. Keeping companies in California for more dollar dollar bills ya'll!

Also, the learning curve is shortened exponentially with the cars driving on public roads. So what if a few people get run over in the process, 1-3 people get shot a day in Chicago, no one seems to care about that.

Sure I care, aside from weather, that is one of the reasons I don't live in Chicago or any other of the 10 Top Ten for murder on the FBI list.


Back when I worked in Mountain View, I used to pass those google self-driving cars almost daily - they always had a person in them monitoring.

My only complaint was how freaking slow they were. Otherwise they were the best damn driving cars on the road.

Either Google has way better algorithms or maybe, just maybe, there is a big difference in navigating Mountain View and SF.:teeth Right now I am not seeing Google braving the SF streets. Ford seems to be the one I see the most. Aren't they partnering with Lyft?

My guess is, that it will be a combo of AI getting better and big business doing to human drivers/riders what they did to pedestrians in the 1915 with their media campaigns against pedestrians with the then newly minted slur "jaywalkers". Which was a pejorative term that at the time was synonymous with "hayseed" or "country come to town". If there is enough money, they will embrace machines over people.
 

Nkeane

Member
No argument there. The problem.is that no matter how sophisticated and capable AI gets, it will never be able to predict what some stressed out driver will do nor predict how others around them will react.


They don't need to be able to predict anything. That's not how any of this works. A computer doesn't need to operate the way a human brain works. We use prediction to overcome our inherent slowness. A computer gets to wait until you do something, measure it, find the proper course of action to counter it, then execute the action. all in .00000001 seconds. Humans take at least 8 orders of magnitude longer to do the same, so we cheat and guess what someone is *about* to do.
 
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