China quarantines city of 18 million to try to contain virus

[Dr_SLO]

Came across this tonight. IMO Occam's razor applies.

There is no credible evidence that SARS-CoV-2 was engineered for nefarious purposes. It's also quite clear now that the virus did not originate from the 'wet' market in Wuhan. A thorough examination of the SARS-CoV2 genome has been performed and the scientists involved make the following statement...

Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus.
Source

For an indepth discussion about the evolution of SARS-CoV-2, have a listen to the podcast posted here. It explains, in detail, the genetic lineage of the virus and the likelihood that SARS-CoV-2 has taken about 50 years to evolve before gaining the capability of human-to-human transmission that we are currently seeing.

The Occam's razor you seek is based in evolution.

 

[ctwo]

The more likely theory is that the Wuhan lab isolated and was researching this naturally occurring virus, and it leaked out due to inadequate safety protocols.

 

[Dr_SLO]

The more likely theory is that the Wuhan lab isolated and was researching this naturally occurring virus, and it leaked out due to inadequate safety protocols.

Unlikely, as the first detectable case on record was outside of Wuhan in mid November.

 

[Climber]

Unlikely, as the first detectable case on record was outside of Wuhan in mid November.

Oh, knock that off! How are conspiracy theorists supposed to be able to operate with knowledgeable people in the room and mouthing off? :laughing

 

[GAJ]

Oh, knock that off! How are conspiracy theorists supposed to be able to operate with knowledgeable people in the room and mouthing off? :laughing

:laughing

 

[bojangle]

Unlikely, as the first detectable case on record was outside of Wuhan in mid November.

Oh really? Interesting. I didn't know that.

As I've been working full time, I haven't had the time to listen to any of those virology podcasts. But I do read all your posts. I know I'm not the only one who's very interested in your explanations on the latest scientific research involving SARS-CoV-2. All of your effort is very appreciated. :thumbup

So this thing has been evolving for 50 years to finally jump from human to human? Any theories on what animal it came from for how it jumped to humans? Do scientists still believe it originated from bats?

 

[Sharxfan]

So turns out that China just upped their death toll by 50% for deaths related to -19. I always thought their numbers were too small for a population density of that many people. Still waiting for the full story from there but think I will die of old age first.

 

[ctwo]

Unlikely, as the first detectable case on record was outside of Wuhan in mid November.

Oh, you're aware of who patient zero was? Or the first detectable case? I'm not, but maybe I missed it. Sorry if you shared it and I'm just ignorant of it.

Didn't the CDC investigate that lab in 2018 with alarming conclusions? Did not that virologist isolate this virus (or was it a similar virus) from bats in that lab, and study it in primates, or at least publish papers about doing so? Or none of that happened, you say?

I would guess the leak did not come straight out of the lab into the local population, but rather carried by a worker to wherever it began. I don't think we outside of the privileged in China really know, and they don't seem to be sharing.

Or we could take it your way, it jumped from a pangolin or some other animal in some other place, some other wet market? I'm not really sure. At least I think you agree that it did not start at the Wuhan wet market like China said. But where you think was the first detectable case, were all the necessary condition present? It's just a case of the most likely given all the facts, which might be natural evolution, but there is much to question and little concrete data that I'm aware of. But it's not my field of expertise, nor my livelihood, so my access to that kind of data is limited, or at least obscured...

Anyway, it seems the things I've said above are true, those about research into these viruses at that facility. At least I think we can agree that this virus was already known to exist in bats, so we have just one more link to discover.

 

[Dr_SLO]

Oh, you're aware of who patient zero was? Or the first detectable case? I'm not, but maybe I missed it. Sorry if you shared it and I'm just ignorant of it.

Didn't the CDC investigate that lab in 2018 with alarming conclusions? Did not that virologist isolate this virus (or was it a similar virus) from bats in that lab, and study it in primates, or at least publish papers about doing so? Or none of that happened, you say?

I would guess the leak did not come straight out of the lab into the local population, but rather carried by a worker to wherever it began. I don't think we outside of the privileged in China really know, and they don't seem to be sharing.

Or we could take it your way, it jumped from a pangolin or some other animal in some other place, some other wet market? I'm not really sure. At least I think you agree that it did not start at the Wuhan wet market like China said. But where you think was the first detectable case, were all the necessary condition present? It's just a case of the most likely given all the facts, which might be natural evolution, but there is much to question and little concrete data that I'm aware of. But it's not my field of expertise, nor my livelihood, so my access to that kind of data is limited, or at least obscured...

Anyway, it seems the things I've said above are true, those about research into these viruses at that facility. At least I think we can agree that this virus was already known to exist in bats, so we have just one more link to discover.

It's still not clear who patient zero was but there were reports of a case (I'll try to find the report for this) in mid November of COVID symptoms that were retrospectively identified to be associated with SARS-CoV-2. Why is this important? We know that a good number of cases are mild and might be dismissed so this suggests there were more people infected prior to the November case. This provides support that there were cases outside of Wuhan before the cohort of cases were identified to be associated at the 'wet' market.

Unlike in the movies, viruses don't just jump into a population, they need to gain traction, mutations necessary to be a productive virus; transmission, replication, disease causing. Although SARS-CoV-2 is related to a bat virus it shares 96% identity. This is the same level of identity between humans and chimpanzees. So, although the Wuhan Virology Institute (WVI) had the virus in their lab this was the closest virus to SARS-CoV-2 that they had in their collection. The paper and podcast that I've directed people to explain how much evolution is required to go from the bat to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. It's a lot. There's likely an intermediate host to help mix things up a little. That also takes time. What's interesting is that nothing tested in the wet market matched with SARS-CoV-2 casting doubt on the wet market as a source. Yes, Pangolins have coronaviruses but they about 85% identical.

If I recall correctly, China does not attribute the source of the outbreak to the wet market. It's just the place where they saw the first large number of cases. Cases prior to the wet market have been identified. As with any fast moving outbreak data is going to evolve and quickly. I think what we're seeing in the media is that they're unable to evolve and keep up with the story. It takes a lot of time to keep up with the data behind the molecular epidemiology.

To your points about containment concerns. Were the CDC's findings really 'alarming' or were criteria not met that needed addressing? Labs that perform research at biosafety levels (BSL) are scrutinized on a regular basis. Special attention is paid to BSL 3 and 4 labs, and rightly so. The CDC closed down a number of BSL 4 labs here in the US in the recent past. If there are concerns about practices the CDC will raise these and then they are addressed by the lab and the institution. However, the lapses safety practices can range from minor to severe. Without knowing what's in the report I can't provide feedback on what 'alarming' means and whether it could result in the release of a biological entity into the environment.

The WVI has performed necessary research on coronaviruses for a number of years specifically to address the concerns raised after classic SARS and MERS. This does not mean that they were the source of an outbreak. They have worked in collaboration with coronavirus experts in the US. This is done to provide expertise, especially in the handling of these viruses. If there were failings in containment the US collaborators would make that known at the local level as they wouldn't feel safe working in that environment.

In short, any investigation into whether SARS-CoV-2 was accidently released from a lab at WVI will very likely find that this was not the case. The epidemiology and the evolutionary biology do not currently support this. Until a smoking gun is found at WVI it's all speculation.

 

[Dr_SLO]

So turns out that China just upped their death toll by 50% for deaths related to -19. I always thought their numbers were too small for a population density of that many people. Still waiting for the full story from there but think I will die of old age first.

New York did the same on Tuesday. It's the nature of the epidemiology beast; all the cases are not going to be counted as a fast moving outbreak happens.

 

[mrzuzzo]

I was shopping in the hills above Los Gatos, on Summit Rd, Summit Store a few days ago and the parking lot looked like Starbucks - so many sportbike posers in the lot.

 

[Killroy1999]

I'm still checking with the factories that I work with in China and the status seems very normal there. Business as usual chunking widgets.

WeChat is quiet now too.

 

[Climber]

I'm still checking with the factories that I work with in China and the status seems very normal there. Business as usual chunking widgets.

WeChat is quiet now too.

Which brings up some big questions:
1. Did they successfully squash the pandemic in their country?
2. Did they already have substantial herd immunity, somehow?
3. Did they let it burn through the country province and keep it out of their other sections through harsh methods?

 

[GAJ]

Good timeline here.

https://www.pressdemocrat.com/news/10905755-181/tracking-the-spread-of-coronavirus

 

[Snaggy]

In short, any investigation into whether SARS-CoV-2 was accidently released from a lab at WVI will very likely find that this was not the case. The epidemiology and the evolutionary biology do not currently support this. Until a smoking gun is found at WVI it's all speculation.

Would it be normal for a research lab to do recombinant research of the sort which apparently happened here? Would this be evidence more of malicious attempt?

Does CRISPR leave any “tool marks”, sequences that show it's been used? Would you even need CRISPR since the replication process is so sloppy the clone you want will show up anyway eventually?

How long before some idiot working in his garage creates something as bad or worse? This really scares me, because there are some nucleic acid hobbyists that make people with pet black mambas look extremely normal.

 

[HadesOmega]

Which brings up some big questions:
1. Did they successfully squash the pandemic in their country?
2. Did they already have substantial herd immunity, somehow?
3. Did they let it burn through the country province and keep it out of their other sections through harsh methods?

They got it before everyone else so they will recover before everyone else.

Sur Ron has now started back up again and they are based in China.

 

[ctwo]

Americans are dying 10:1 and we're still ramping up, and the rest of the world hasn't done much better. Wonder who they're going to sell to?

Even Sur Ron gave me a free bike, I couldn't really ride it much.

 

[Climber]

They got it before everyone else so they will recover before everyone else.

Sur Ron has now started back up again and they are based in China.

Not sufficient.

Yeah, they are ahead of us, but only about 10% of our population has been infected so far, so if we jump back into manufacturing, many people will get it and the hospitals will get overwhelmed.

 

[ctwo]

Not sufficient.

Yeah, they are ahead of us, but only about 10% of our population has been infected so far, so if we jump back into manufacturing, many people will get it and the hospitals will get overwhelmed.

Where do you get 10%?

What percentage of China's population was infected? Seems like a very small number.

 

[Climber]

Where do you get 10%?

What percentage of China's population was infected? Seems like a very small number.

That's about the max, in this country, who have been infected, by many estimates.

We really don't know the true statistics of China's death counts, we'll probably never know. Too many unknowns when it comes to them.