Buffet on the impending market crash

Archimedes

Archimedes

Fire Watcher
I loved Buffet's comments the other day about chasing yield. I agree 100 percent with him on that.

This market has forgotten how to price risk and the financial services companies are loving every minute of it.
 
Archimedes

Archimedes

Fire Watcher
kevin 714 said:
Good, bring on the crash!
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Amen, brother!

I say burn baby, burn, so we can get back to rational investing, just like after every bubble.

But let's face it, as long as the Fed keeps money cheap, the market is going to keep rebounding from each shock because people are going to continue to chase yield.
 
byke

byke

Well-known member
Rational investing is gone. These cycles are exactly where the redistribution of wealth happens. Half of nothing is still nothing and ten times nothing is still nothing, but half of 20 million is still 10 million and ten times 10 million is 100 million. Little guy money gets flushed down the toilet and sure maybe the big guy takes a hit if he can't position himself for a crash, but he crushes it on the upswing. These big swings make rich people a shit ton of money and devastate everyone else.
 
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alien
Companies are gonna keep buying back their stock with their tax break.
The bull run might take a hit but it’s not over.
 
afm199

afm199

Well-known member
Welcome to the world of investing. Sell if you feel you can't take the hit. Otherwise hold on. It will either be the right thing or the wrong thing.
 
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alien
Was starting to wonder if we were ever getting a buying opportunity.
Just when you think its not coming the market kick you in the balls.
 
ScarySpikes

ScarySpikes

tastes like burning
I put about 130k of my money into cash a little less than a month ago, precisely because I could not risk a market dip when I was about to put that money into a down payment on a house. Definitely happy with my decision seeing what is happening right now.
 
Archimedes

Archimedes

Fire Watcher
Blankpage said:
Companies are gonna keep buying back their stock with their tax break.
The bull run might take a hit but it’s not over.
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Stock buybacks have more to do with cheap money than the tax break and they were driving the early parts of this bull run well before Trump took office.

What's driving this market are investors chasing yield, fundamentals be damned. But there is no free lunch and eventually the piper shows up for his check.

And a perfect sign of how stupid this market is, is the fact that people are freaking out over the current pullback. It's not even close to what a real pull back would look like if interest rates weren't being held artificially low. The market is still way up and it's still crazy overvalued relative to fundamentals and risk. I fear the public will not be able to process a real correction, were it to come, and people would lose their minds and panic.
 
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I did as well. Last Friday.

Having the tv on in the morning at the Bloomberg channel helps me understand the amount of uncertainty and risk I am willing to take.
 
afm199

afm199

Well-known member
If you " got out " in time, when will you know that you should "get in at the right moment?"
 
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"We Just Witnessed The Fastest Stock Market Correction on Record" Bloomberg article dated February 27 (today) 1:53 PM PST

Six days. That’s all the time it took for the S&P 500 to fall more than 10% from a record into a correction... This week has been harrowing for investors, with the benchmark declining more than 3% in three of the last four sessions. The S&P 500 is poised for its worst week since 2008.
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Archimedes

Archimedes

Fire Watcher
afm199 said:
If you " got out " in time, when will you know that you should "get in at the right moment?"
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C'mon old man, don't you know these young guns have got the market nailed?!

I love hearing the investment philosophies of people whose entire adult life has been a bull market. :laughing
 
afm199

afm199

Well-known member
Archimedes said:
C'mon old man, don't you know these young guns have got the market nailed?!

I love hearing the investment philosophies of people whose entire adult life has been a bull market. :laughing
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LOL. Yeah. I have taken a few positions in the last couple days. Mostly bonds, some equity.

You guys who pull out early, you gotta remember, you never gonna get the climax doing that, nor any love. You gotta take chances in this world./ It's good for you to get your ass kicked. It teaches you that the market is not rational, predictable, or safe, but quite often lucrative.
 
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I'll dollar cost average back into the market when I feel comfortable. It's not about catching the spike for me.

That means waiting on a couple months of data about the global economy and the U.S. economy


You'd be surprised I owned Amazon for 22 days :wow
 
Archimedes

Archimedes

Fire Watcher
I've been light on equities for the last 12 months, not because I'm trying to time the market. Simply because I don't believe the market is properly pricing risk across the board at this point and I'm concerned that the returns that will be available over the next 5-10 years aren't worth the risk. Now, if we hit a true correction, which in my mind is more than a 20 percent drop, I'll rethink that. But I'm also at a stage in my life where capital preservation is more important that outright return. If I were younger I might have held on a little longer, but there is no way I would have been heavy equities a week ago at these valuations. They're just fucking nuts.
 
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