2020 Investment Thread

[afm199]

I'm not paying so much attention to dividends these days. IMO more important to have a reason to believe that whatever you're buying will do well over time.

Long weekends are annoying. I expect a big drop on Monday, but whenever I try to time the market I'm wrong. :laughing

What's the old saying? "The problem with market timing is that the market has a lot more money than you."

I'm amazed at this runup this week, and have expected a plunge every day, but I am not fighting it.

 

[afm199]

I dont see how ADX is any better or different than just stickin it in the fortune500. they have similar graphs. let me know why you like it so much afm199

economy reports coming out tomorrow and they aint gonna be good, i think monday we are in for a drop overall. I think a big drop is very very likely, tho it might be a few weeks until that happens.

I made some damn good $ when AAL when to $10/share then back to $14ish when Trumpster said they'd get a bailout. TWO and RWT did really well for me this last week, but i think they are mostly done going up until we start to get out of this quarantine. EB is good competition to LiveNation, and EB is way low, made some $ off them in the past few days. but again I think they are in the same boat at RWT and TWO.

I'd like to think its hard to go wrong with USO at $5/share, but damn i wish i'd bought more back when it was in the low 4's about a week ago. it likely will go that low again if this quarantine continues for longer. its a GREAT long term bet if you are willing and able to keep the money in it until we go back to normal-ish demand levels; as is any oil stock, chevron, shell etc

on the horizon I see Microsoft doing well. they have a groundbreaking flight simulator game they will release late this year, as well as the new console system before the christmas holiday.

I think YUM (burger king and other fast food) is in a good position to do well. they are still open, and will remain so. people are gonna be super busy when the economy starts again, and fast food will buy them some time. MCD same deal

as for now i got my money mostly pulled out, i've done well these last few weeks, and I think its likely it all will drop a good amount again. and i also think its not going to go up much more, it just doesnt make sense that it would with how the corona crap is panning out.

disclaimer: all these advice/tips/thoughts are worth precisely what you paid for 'em

ADX has two or three things going for it. It's a CEF, you're buying nice equity at a discount, as it sells at a discount most of the time. Currently 13%. It is actively managed, not a shotgun approach. It has a great history of good stewardship and outstanding dividends. It's a well run fund.

Thanks for the tips, will check out YUM

 

[Entoptic]

What's the old saying? "The problem with market timing is that the market has a lot more money than you."

I'm amazed at this runup this week, and have expected a plunge every day, but I am not fighting it.

I feel the same way and am reminded of this.

I’m a mod on several investment discord channels. The general feeling is new people think we’re going up but anyone that went through the last recession knows we ain’t see anything yet.

If you’d like access to any of these discord channels please PM me and I’ll provide it.

 

[Mario]

Personal story. I've been following all articles predicting a recession. Been holding cash since early 2018. Was expecting to happen beginning of Jan '19. I we had that dip, I though this is it, so I waited, just to see it go up again. I still wait, predictions are still out there. Then it starts collapsing 2020 (pre-virus). Instead of waiting, I decide to invest after market drops a certain %. I go all in. Then virus, massive hit. Freaking out looking this go down, I really thought there might be a chance of the end of the world, sold a fraction to keep some in cash. Now the market goes up...

Subscribing to this thread, I hope to learn from wise investors. I am definitely not one. Picture to show my stupidity.

 

[afm199]

I pulled out of the market a little over a month ago on a gut feeling. I'm currently biding my time before investing in a couple more residential properties.

I've been watching houses in Eureka for several months. The trend seems to be asking prices dropping. Couple of nice properties there I am interested in.

 

[Caddywumpus]

Mario, it is incredibly difficult to time the market. I spent all of 2019 out of the market because I felt it was overvalued. I posted a few times on reddit economics and was literally laughed out. This market will never crash.

Yeah. WHos laughing now.

A better way for you to invest instead of all or nothing would be a step-in method, where lets say you have $12,000 to invest. Instead of investing all of it at a single point in time, you invest it in 12 or 24 chunks or $1000 or $500, over a period of a year. Balloons rarely fill instantly, and typically deflate slowly over time. Right now there will be a lot of volatility and we are probably nowhere near the bottom. Also, you only truly LOSE cash if you sell.

 

[Mario]

Older-wiser people have told me the same. Put the money in as soon as you can invest and don't look at it until you retire.

I'll wait till next week to get back in with the chunk I sold, maybe pick a few suggestions from this thread.

 

[byke]

I feel the same way and am reminded of this.

I’m a mod on several investment discord channels. The general feeling is new people think we’re going up but anyone that went through the last recession knows we ain’t see anything yet.

If you’d like access to any of these discord channels please PM me and I’ll provide it.

I kind of agree, but not being directly in the game makes it tough to know what investors have accounted for to bring us here. News comes out that unemployment is going to be bad and it drops, then when the numbers come out, it doesn't matter because it's already been accounted for. Same as with earnings, the drop happens when people know in advance that it's going to be shite, then when earnings actually come out, nothing happens. I suppose credit/housing/loan info hasn't been totally accounted for, but without being in the bullpens, I have no idea.

 

[JesasaurusRex]

Personal story. I've been following all articles predicting a recession. Been holding cash since early 2018. Was expecting to happen beginning of Jan '19. I we had that dip, I though this is it, so I waited, just to see it go up again. I still wait, predictions are still out there. Then it starts collapsing 2020 (pre-virus). Instead of waiting, I decide to invest after market drops a certain %. I go all in. Then virus, massive hit. Freaking out looking this go down, I really thought there might be a chance of the end of the world, sold a fraction to keep some in cash. Now the market goes up...

Subscribing to this thread, I hope to learn from wise investors. I am definitely not one. Picture to show my stupidity.

lol par for the course
sucks bro, better luck going forward

 

[afm199]

Older-wiser people have told me the same. Put the money in as soon as you can invest and don't look at it until you retire.

I'll wait till next week to get back in with the chunk I sold, maybe pick a few suggestions from this thread.

Yeah, it's hard to time, basically impossible. Nothing wrong with investing over a period of time rather than all at once, and it gives you the opportunity to really look at your choices.

I haven't been fully invested in stocks and bonds ever. Never will be.

 

[Blankpage]

I almost resembled that chart but didn't have the balls to go all in back in January. I was taking my time trying to pick an entry point then the ass gor ripped out of it.

 

[asdfghwy]

Yeah, it's hard to time, basically impossible. Nothing wrong with investing over a period of time rather than all at once, and it gives you the opportunity to really look at your choices.

I haven't been fully invested in stocks and bonds ever. Never will be.

dollar cost averaging is a very nice thing. although it does help to have cash to dump in here and there on the dips or big loss days

 

[two wheel tramp]

I've been watching houses in Eureka for several months. The trend seems to be asking prices dropping. Couple of nice properties there I am interested in.

oooh! Can I visit you and whichever dogs may live with you en route to my Mom's house? :teeth

Older-wiser people have told me the same. Put the money in as soon as you can invest and don't look at it until you retire.

I'll wait till next week to get back in with the chunk I sold, maybe pick a few suggestions from this thread.

I put in a set amount every paycheck. I am will continue to do so and won't mess with it until retirement time unless someone smarter than me says "Do x, y, and z with your money". I had a discussion with my retirement planner in January and we talked about what I would do if the market crashed. I told him "leave it alone" and that's what I plan to do.

 

[JesasaurusRex]

I almost resembled that chart but didn't have the balls to go all in back in January. I was taking my time trying to pick an entry point then the ass gor ripped out of it.

Me too, came damn close. Maxed out two years worth of hsa's over the past 6 months and an ira. Kinda stings, but factor in the tax savings and I'm not really out anything. Planned on dumping a bit more in but now I'm scared to do anything.

 

[Blankpage]

Trick now is to correctly guess which stocks will benefit from an additions $2T+ dollars being sprinkled about. Will be like a tide rushing in, well maybe a neap tide.

 

[Removed 3]

Awrite, who's going to start the "what are you going to do with your stimulus check" thread +a poll?

 

[SpeedyCorky]

wow look at WTI stock... offshore gas company in the USA. pretty risky i'd say; but damn they are down almost 50%ish from the crash and still havent recovered hardly at all, while most every other oil related stock *kinda* has. time to buy was yesteday afternoon at $2/share (fuck, missed out was playing video games :laughing), but they still look undervalued at their current 2.32$/share. granted it was at low $2/share for most of 2016 to 2018...buttt they were also at ~$30/share the years before the 08 crash, and up to fuckin $60 before the 08 crashed killed 'em. too bad winter isnt coming or they'd be an even better bet. oil stocks still kinda scary me tho, they will go lower if we have another crash, tho gawd damn hard to imagine them going thaat much lower

i also just discovered YUM CHINA , same as regular YUM, but for the Chinese market. I see them doing better than regular YUM. almost for sure gonna sell my YUM on monday and swing it on over to YUM CHINA. i consider that a non-risky part of my portfolio

MTCH might also be a good buy with this whole shelter in place BS. i bought some late may at around $50, made some $, sold. wish i hadnt... :cry tho missed out on losses hurt a lot less than actual losses

 

[byke]

I'd be buying USO today is the market were open. Mexico will agree and everyone will cut production and it'll rocket 50% in a week.

 

[jt2]

Put the money in as soon as you can invest and don't look at it until you retire.

This is not bad advice. If you don't want to bother managing your investments, the best thing you can do is start buying an S&P500 ETF like SPY (or a low cost fund that tracks it if you have limited options as is frequently the case in 401(k) programs). Set it to auto-reinvest dividends and yeah, pretty much forget about it other than ratcheting up your contributions over time as your income grows.

The S&P500 beats most actively managed funds and "financial advisors" net of fees in most cases.

When you get within a few years of retirement a gradual shift towards a percentage in bonds isn't a bad idea. Not something I'm doing, in all honesty, but the models do support that strategy as giving you a hedge.

 

[afm199]

I'd be buying USO today is the market were open. Mexico will agree and everyone will cut production and it'll rocket 50% in a week.

I quit betting on Oil volatility years ago, when I got burned to the tune of $100k basically overnight. The only thing you can count on with oil is volatility.

This is not bad advice. If you don't want to bother managing your investments, the best thing you can do is start buying an S&P500 ETF like SPY (or a low cost fund that tracks it if you have limited options as is frequently the case in 401(k) programs). Set it to auto-reinvest dividends and yeah, pretty much forget about it other than ratcheting up your contributions over time as your income grows.

The S&P500 beats most actively managed funds and "financial advisors" net of fees in most cases.

When you get within a few years of retirement a gradual shift towards a percentage in bonds isn't a bad idea. Not something I'm doing, in all honesty, but the models do support that strategy as giving you a hedge.

This. 100% this. Warren Buffet recommends VOO, but they are similar.