2021 Investment Thread

[buellistic]

Our savings have always been held in conservative places, but we have had some changes and now I am going to figure this all out.

There seem to be a lot of abbreviations and jargon and stuff. I have funds at Stifel Nicholas and Fidelity and Capital and Barclays and... yeah and Citibank and Chase.

I try not to let this cut into my riding time.

You have stuff in Barclays and haven't pulled it out yet?

 

[Butch]

You have stuff in Barclays and haven't pulled it out yet?

Uh, yeah. I have no idea what I am doing. I have always been an engineer and not a finance weenie. Time to learn new tricks.

Why is Barclays bad?
And yeah, I will read this whole thread and glean what I can.

 

[Killroy1999]

Don't you know a union job when you see it? Drive to Fresno and check out the bullet train overcrossings. Another 10 years and they'll be due to be refurbished and "retrofitted" based upon some law that has yet to be passed (but overwhelmingly supported by unions).

That did cross my mind. I have talked to the 2 guys that are commissioning it and I think they have a legitimate technical problem with the complicated system. The difference with this station is that it stores more liquid hydrogen, so its has a much larger storage capacity than the station in south Campbell.

After riding a lot of high speed rail in Europe and Asia, I am a fan of high speed rail. Sucks if it turns into a boondoggle. Trick to infrastructure is to build it in green feels before for the future, not when you need it.

 

[NorCalAthlete]

What train?

The money train.

 

[kuksul08]

Uh, yeah. I have no idea what I am doing. I have always been an engineer and not a finance weenie. Time to learn new tricks.

Why is Barclays bad?
And yeah, I will read this whole thread and glean what I can.

Move it all into one place to make it easier to manage.

And then:
https://www.juststartinvesting.com/3-fund-portfolio/

 

[lizard]

...
The Covid crisis saw a temporary dip in my holdings of about 35%, and was tempted to sell out but bought instead.

I believe it was March 6, 2020. That was a painful day. A 40% drop in my portfolio. So many thoughts ran through my mind. One thought: sell everything and relocate to Ethiopia.

What I did: kept calm and dollar-cost-averaged one of my big holdings. It dropped from $180 to $107 in March 2020 and is today is at $280 - its been a long 12 months that takes guts and discipline. I also bought 3 stocks (oil and banking) during that dip that provided a nice return.

 

[afm199]

I believe it was March 6, 2020. That was a painful day. A 40% drop in my portfolio. So many thoughts ran through my mind. One thought: sell everything and relocate to Ethiopia.

What I did: kept calm and dollar-cost-averaged one of my big holdings. It dropped from $180 to $107 in March 2020 and is today is at $280 - its been a long 12 months that takes guts and discipline. I also bought 3 stocks (oil and banking) during that dip that provided a nice return.

Congrats on your move and holding the fort.

For me Mar. 23 was the bottom and the point when I started buying.

Yeah, I was so flipped out. Like "Fuck. All these years and this?"

Instead I bought REIT's ( great move), CEF's and equity.

 

[afm199]

From the master:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...favorite-valuation-metric-is-ringing-an-alarm

 

[lizard]

Congrats on your move and holding the fort.

For me Mar. 23 was the bottom and the point when I started buying.

Yeah, I was so flipped out. Like "Fuck. All these years and this?"

Instead I bought REIT's ( great move), CEF's and equity.

You’re right. Not Mar 6 but Mar 23. It made Jan 2009 seem like a dip LOL.

There’s always corrections. Waiting for the next one :rolleyes

 

[900ss]

I don't know man. I have been following Fuel cells since '98 and fuel cell electric vehicles and 2008 was their time to shine. They really missed the boat with BEV's taking over. The new Toyota Mirai is working to reduce the use of precious metals.

They have been trying to commission a hydrogen fuel cell station in Campbell for ~8 months. I see them working on the hydrogen storage building ever day and I wonder what the hold up is. From the looks of it, these guys are trying to reinvent the wheel,.

Hydrogen is being offloaded this morning.

 

[Killroy1999]

Hydrogen is being offloaded this morning.

In Campbell? Or on the stock market?

I have seen the hydrogen truck at the station ~2 weeks ago and the workers there regularly. Still not open. It's at the Chevron Station on Hamilton and the guy behind the register did not seem positive about the hydrogen station opening.

 

[lizard]

Bought some PALL yesterday because the price looked right and I was looking for things that might survive a storm.

76% of Palladium use is for catalytic converters and ICE vehicles are on the decline; but it's also an important ingredient for hydrogen fuel cells. Maybe they'll balance out? :dunno

I didn’t know palladium > hydrogen fuel cells.

EVs are definitely a thing. Look at GM’s 2035 commitment, VW’s EVs sales nearly equaling Golf sales, 56% of new cars in Norway are EV, China being the largest EV market, etc. As I posted earlier, I’m looking at EV infrastructure: EV makers (xpeng, nio), VW’s Electrify America, EV chargers (blnk, sbe, etc), lithium, etc...

Other opps: data centers and streaming (people are disconnecting from cable TV, which Covid helped).

 

[900ss]

In Campbell? Or on the stock market?

I have seen the hydrogen truck at the station ~2 weeks ago and the workers there regularly. Still not open. It's at the Chevron Station on Hamilton and the guy behind the register did not seem positive about the hydrogen station opening.

I haven't noticed the tanker there before; I drive up Hamilton on the way to work some mornings. I have seen the workers frequently.

 

[Killroy1999]

I haven't noticed the tanker there before; I drive up Hamilton on the way to work some mornings. I have seen the workers frequently.

The hydrogen truck was there ~ 3 weeks ago. They are delivering liquid hydrogen instead of gaseous and that is why that station has a much greater storage capacity.

You think they would have one big tank, but it looks like the tank strategy is a battery of smaller tanks similar to a tank size that you would see on a hand cart (~6 foot tall).

 

[rodr]

...
Other opps: data centers and streaming (people are disconnecting from cable TV, which Covid helped).

FCOM covers that sector nicely, and is up 46% since I bought it in June.

 

[Killroy1999]

I wonder how many of us have "beaten the market" over the years with our investment decisions? I'm guessing not many. I was just looking over recent performance of my IRAs.

In 2017 I earned 5.0%. The S&P 500 was up 19%.
In 2018 I lost 11.6%. SP5 lost 6.6%.
In 2019 I earned 10.9%. SP5 was up 29%.
In 2020 I earned 9.6%. SP5 was up 16%.

:mad Shoulda just put it all in VOO.

Looks like no one wants to show their tenders and/or loss porn.

 

[Killroy1999]

If I had enough to FIRE (and those days are gone for me) I would have a tax and finance/fiduciary professional(s) on standby doing my permanent stuff for me. WSB options/crypto etc. would be part of my gambling/fun money and independent from FIRE. Now if you're using crypto for FIRE, and you have enough to portion out for FIRE, converting and stabilizing is what I would do there.

Had to look up FIRE. Seems like if you really Financially Independent (no trust fund babies), then the Bay Area is probably not the place to retire. Perhaps retiring out of the states. If I have no friends or family here, I would consider it.

 

[afm199]

I think right now we're in a bit of a correction, more likely a leveling off. The election is over, covid is less of a worry, and now people are starting to ask whether all the enthusiasm for the market is really indicative of value.

Which I don't know, but I tend to think it's a bit frothy.

Either that, or an all time bargain. lol

 

[cfives]

I'm thinking that a sizable correction won't happen until after the stimulus bill is passed, might be a good time to take profits right after that.

Glad to hear that the feds accepted WFC's overhaul plan, hopefully they are allowed to give a significant dividend increase later this year.

 

[NorCalAthlete]

Had to look up FIRE. Seems like if you really Financially Independent (no trust fund babies), then the Bay Area is probably not the place to retire. Perhaps retiring out of the states. If I have no friends or family here, I would consider it.

Hence the targets of fatFIRE and moFIRE.

fatFIRE = ~$100k-$300k safe withdrawal rate, so usually around $5M - $15M -ish but generally up to like $50M is still considered fatFIRE.

moFIRE = Morbidly Obese FIRE, $100M+ target.

Obviously, it's far more difficult to hit moFIRE, and difficult as it is just to hit fatFIRE. But as the saying goes, if you can do it here you can do it anywhere. So many will come here to stack the cash and then FIRE and leave the state.

fatFIRE just gives you the option of staying here.