SF juvenile arrest rate continues to drop

Junkie

gone for now
https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2019/vanishing-violence/
Vanishing Violence

Almost unnoticed, serious youth crime has fallen off drastically, leaving juvenile halls emptied and experts mystified

graphic-arrest-rates.png
I'm surprised that the SF arrest rate continues to drop while other places have leveled off.

I wonder if the crime rate is dropping or if it's the enforcement rate that's dropping.
 
Edit - my bad, didn’t read the chart or article closely before responding the first time. Upon 2nd look, it would appear that it’s simply following the overall trend during the same time period.

Posting from mobile, will edit this to show charts in a sec:

From OP's link:
David Monroe pulled a gun from his pocket, said “f— it,” and fired five shots at a boy he had never seen before. At age 15, he became a killer.

The midday shooting on a Stockton street in 1997, while heinous, was hardly uncommon when it happened. In the mid-1990s, a juvenile was slain, on average, almost every day in California. Arrests of youths for violent felonies averaged about 60 a day statewide.

As with the earlier rise in crime, the reasons for the sharp drop aren’t well understood and research has yet to pinpoint the causes. California is not alone in experiencing the decline in youth crime, as rates have fallen across the country.

Such local policies or programs, however, don’t explain the near-universal drop. The numbers fell in every California county, in most states and even on a global scale, said Males of the Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice. Arrests for low-level offenses like petty theft and truancy have decreased, as have arrests for serious and potentially life-altering crimes like kidnap and rape.

“I would be very suspicious of people who claim to know why,” Males said, adding that elected officials like to credit local policies for the decline. “Then the county next door did the opposite and that worked, too.”

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graphic-homicide-rates.png

Over the same time period, roughly, this is the nation's overall shooting statistics:

https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2013/05/07/gun-homicide-rate-down-49-since-1993-peak-public-unaware/


Will see if I can find a more updated link but yeah - it's not just SF or Alameda county. Something else to keep in mind:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...special-report-fixing-gun-violence-in-america

Yeah, I know, it's primarily focused on guns - but the point remains of the clustering and focal points around violence in general, and how the factors of poverty and neighborhood seem to matter the most. So with regard to SF (City + county, but the county is basically just densely populated) vs Alameda (county, which includes suburbs and less densely populated) it makes sense that SF would experience a sharper drop.
 
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Junkie

gone for now
Pete, if you look at CA as a whole or Alameda County, it's pretty much leveled off since 2013 or so. SF continues to decrease substantially.
 

Mike95060

Work In Progress
Does that mean less crime or just fewer arrests?

edit: maybe, just maybe better parenting is resulting in fewer fucked up kids?
 
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Pete, if you look at CA as a whole or Alameda County, it's pretty much leveled off since 2013 or so. SF continues to decrease substantially.

Could be a myriad of factors. Haven’t finished reading the article yet. But I’d be interested in seeing how the population demographics have shifted over time as well. Do we have the same numbers of youths? Same ethnic makeup? Same neighborhood factors?

Or have youths been pushed out? Families pushed out? Neighborhoods revamped and renovated? More single people or families without kids? More old people whose kids grew up and left? A population skewed more towards the extremes - Ie, you’re either making enough to live there or you’re homeless?
 

Mike95060

Work In Progress
Could be a myriad of factors. Haven’t finished reading the article yet. But I’d be interested in seeing how the population demographics have shifted over time as well. Do we have the same numbers of youths? Same ethnic makeup? Same neighborhood factors?

Or have youths been pushed out? Families pushed out? Neighborhoods revamped and renovated? More single people or families without kids? More old people whose kids grew up and left? A population skewed more towards the extremes - Ie, you’re either making enough to live there or you’re homeless?

All good questions.
 

fast4d

Well-known member
those stats are meaningless. maybe good for politicians to pat themselves on the back.

we don't know total number of cases
we don't know case solve rate

it's also possible 'families' can't afford to live in the area and moved away. gentrification is working!

kind of like the 80s and 90s when people from the hoods in LA moved up to lancaster/palmdale when the defense and aerospace industries rolled back in so cal.
 
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Need more two parent families.

In SF, it takes 2 to even buy a home / rent a place more often than not. This may be one of the factors decreasing crime - single parents can't afford the city as much anymore.

On the flip side, it's also often the case that while it takes 2 to buy a home, with both parents working the kid(s) still may be neglected just as much if not more.
 

Mike95060

Work In Progress
I would think that parents staying together would be more for social reasons than economic but :dunno

What do you mean by social reasons? Making ends meet puts a lot of stress on parents. Stress it the main reason I think couples split. No money for a vaction? Stress. No money for a sitter to watch the kids so adults can go adult? Stress. Have to work OT and shift the household duties to one parent? Stress. Can't afford counseling when things get bad? Stress.
The grind of life can easily make couples split IMHO.
 

Junkie

gone for now
What do you mean by social reasons? Making ends meet puts a lot of stress on parents. Stress it the main reason I think couples split. No money for a vaction? Stress. No money for a sitter to watch the kids so adults can go adult? Stress. Have to work OT and shift the household duties to one parent? Stress. Can't afford counseling when things get bad? Stress.
The grind of life can easily make couples split IMHO.
Some cultures care far more about having a father in the child's life than others.
 

gnahc79

Fear me!
my guess is kids are stuck on their phones all the dang time. plus the petty theft change from Prop 47 back in 2014 as a misdemeanor might play a role as well.
 

SpeedyCorky

rides minibikes;U should2
my guess is kids are stuck on their phones all the dang time. plus the petty theft change from Prop 47 back in 2014 as a misdemeanor might play a role as well.

bingo
phone use distracting kids and keeping them indoors. as well as redefining what crime is and changing the stats via that method. I saw it in education "our suspensions are down by 40% especially for our black and brown students" meanwhile behavior was unquestionable worse. instead of kids getting suspended, they got to talk with a councilor or were put into some kinda program to rehabilitate them or whatnot. basically, the administration decided to assign these consequences instead of assigning suspension. lemmie tell you, it didnt take long for students to figure out that they could do X or Y and not get suspended...
 
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