Now there are at least 2 of us...

[moto-rama]

...that think the era of autonomous vehicles, cars in particular, will bring a safer, more predictable environment on highways...for Motorcycle Riders, that is.

Cycle World article by Nick Lanatch explains why.

https://www.cycleworld.com/replace-distracted-drivers-to-grow-motorcycling/

Even so , I don't see Tesla's auto pilot as an example of autonomous, at least not yet.

 

[FXCLM5]

no.

ive already explained why.

autonomous vehicles are all programmed to do xyz when 123 happens.

or in other words, they have to program in scenarios with known inputs for correct outputs.

car accidents are rarely ever the same, how the accident occurs all have different scenarios - go talk to insurance investigators/adjusters or police reports of what they do to determine how the accident occured and who was at fault.

those scenarios are rarely ever the same.

the only time it will work is if every vehicle on the road is autonomous and they all work together and not have to deal with some random driver looking down/spilling coffee and pulling some erratic move.

 

[moto-rama]

no.

ive already explained why.

autonomous vehicles are all programmed to do xyz when 123 happens.

or in other words, they have to program in scenarios with known inputs for correct outputs.

car accidents are rarely ever the same, how the accident occurs all have different scenarios - go talk to insurance investigators/adjusters or police reports of what they do to determine how the accident occured and who was at fault.

those scenarios are rarely ever the same.

the only time it will work is if every vehicle on the road is autonomous and they all work together and not have to deal with some random driver looking down/spilling coffee and pulling some erratic move.

Exactly... when they are all programmed to work as a system (Not as 100% autonomous), riders will be less apt to encounter anomalies, like maroons spilling coffee and causing trouble. They'll be like a sea of obedient sheep, part of the scenery to ride through, around and someday, over.

 

[ST Guy]

...that think the era of autonomous vehicles, cars in particular, will bring a safer, more predictable environment on highways...for Motorcycle Riders, that is.

Cycle World article by Nick Lanatch explains why.

https://www.cycleworld.com/replace-distracted-drivers-to-grow-motorcycling/

Even so , I don't see Tesla's auto pilot as an example of autonomous, at least not yet.

Tesla's Autopilot was never, ever intended as anything close to autonomous function. And, it was very stupid of Tesla to name it Autopilot. That name implies that you can just set it and forget it. 'Can't do that as more than a few numb nuts have found out.

 

[guycole]

I have been next to a waymo vehicle and it wanders around in the lane a bit. These cars aren't like coding for web sites. Just reliably recognizing a stop light is obviously complicated, let alone all the sensor integration that it takes to roll down the street. Tesla won't match that with the sensors they currently use. Like av or not, they will be a part of Bay area traffic. Won't be difficult to be better than humans.

 

[sjuels]

...that think the era of autonomous vehicles, cars in particular, will bring a safer, more predictable environment on highways...for Motorcycle Riders, that is.

Cycle World article by Nick Lanatch explains why.

https://www.cycleworld.com/replace-distracted-drivers-to-grow-motorcycling/

Even so , I don't see Tesla's auto pilot as an example of autonomous, at least not yet.

I can for good reasons not have a public discussion about different companies technologies, but having worked on some of the foremost self driving vehicles for over a decade, I have some strong opinions (an analysis without numbers is an opinion, and I will not give numbers).

I am not sure if the article, linked by OP, but SDVs will err on the safe side, are never distracted, and can track hundreds of objects trajectory within a very small fraction of a meter per second. They will not miss a splitting motorcyclist coming up on them, despite rain or darkness ( that is part of my job, to ensure that ). AI is much, much better at detecting a distracted or impaired driver than any human.

Commuting across the bay bridge every day, my opinion is that none of the SDVs from the major players will - today - do a worse jobs than the average driver. Speed will for sure be within the legal limit and merging will be on a strictly first come first merged basis, and you might have the idea that you are driving in Germany if there are sufficient of SDVs on the road.

My two pennies.
/Soren

 

[FXCLM5]

Seems like it will always have to be constantly updated/developed with new scenarios, also ask insurance companies how are they going to cover claims.

Go after the car mfg when their system fails to yield to a real driver? Or the car owner, and then have car owner sue the mfg? Because the passenger was not "driver" since it was automated.

 

[Pushrod]

SDV's are in the infancy stage. Give it ten years . . .

After all, space exploration is pretty much autonomous after launch but the Apollo missions were hands on.

You are living 'back in the day' for the riders of the future.

 

[Maddevill]

The only way to have a completely successful automated car system is for ALL the vehicles to be in said system. Which means motorcycles too. Or, more likely ,they'll just ban bikes.

Mad

 

[budman]

Limore is an optimist for sure... but hey....There is a small chance it could happen.

 

[Climber]

Tesla's Autopilot was never, ever intended as anything close to autonomous function. And, it was very stupid of Tesla to name it Autopilot. That name implies that you can just set it and forget it. 'Can't do that as more than a few numb nuts have found out.

It was almost certainly the marketing folk who put that label on the feature, the engineers probably called it 'driver assist' but the marketing people, who rarely ever stick to the facts probably took that phrase and ran with something they thought sounded sexy.

When I was the project manager on software projects, I had plenty of run-ins with the marketing folks whose descriptions of my games didn't match my understanding of the games I oversaw the development of. They do wtf enters their mind and most of them are incompetent, at least the ones I ran across over the years, it's a very fuzzy 'science'.

 

[moto-rama]

....Won't be difficult to be better than humans.

You can say that again.

Never mind, I'll say it. Won't be difficult to be better than humans.

 

[moto-rama]

My prediction:
If, and that's a really big if, car and truck traffic are managed by a central control management system, and car ownership evolves to something more like a subscription service for urban commuters...

then it could bring an era where the motorcyclist no longer has to be a Spidey-Sense-Psychic as well as an expert stunt rider to survive a typical commute.

Even if the concept of commuting morphs in to something like an

"App that calls a car when you need one, takes the passenger to work, then goes off to service another subscriber, then another available vehicle is ordered to take that commuter home" I doubt that motorcycles, scooters, bicycles will ever be banned, instead they'll be different, but aren't current bikes different than the ones we started with?

 

[Smash Allen]

My prediction:
If, and that's a really big if, car and truck traffic are managed by a central control management system, and car ownership evolves to something more like a subscription service for urban commuters...

then it could bring an era where the motorcyclist no longer has to be a Spidey-Sense-Psychic as well as an expert stunt rider to survive a typical commute.

Even if the concept of commuting morphs in to something like an

"App that calls a car when you need one, takes the passenger to work, then goes off to service another subscriber, then another available vehicle is ordered to take that commuter home" I doubt that motorcycles, scooters, bicycles will ever be banned, instead they'll be different, but aren't current bikes different than the ones we started with?

That's scary, giving up my ability to move freely to some 'control management system'. I'm not opposed to rental companies like Hertz only offering SDV, but damned if I allow ALL traffic to be controlled like that!

 

[moto-rama]

That's scary, giving up my ability to move freely to some 'control management system'. I'm not opposed to rental companies like Hertz only offering SDV, but damned if I allow ALL traffic to be controlled like that!

Well, I doubt that things are going to get any less chaotic or overcrowded on their own account.

Do you have a solution to the current gridlock, combat-driving culture of Bay Area traffic?

Mine? Evict everyone that isn't at least a 2nd generation Californian. But since 97% of the people living here, arrived in the last 10 years, that ain't going to happen.

 

[Smash Allen]

Well, I doubt that things are going to get any less chaotic or overcrowded on their own account.

Do you have a solution to the current gridlock, combat-driving culture of Bay Area traffic?

Double the amount of lanes by digging tunnels under congested freeways like HWY24? :laughing

 

[DataDan]

Forget about a centrally controlled network. The system that will evolve will consist of autonomous units able to communicate with similarly equipped nearby vehicles, but also able to deal with non-connected vehicles. Motorcycles will fit right in.

However, I don't agree with the idea that this will lead to a motorcycling boom.

 

[Butch]

Ha! Did you try turning it off and on again?

 

[BURNROPE]

It seems that eventually autonomous vehicles will eliminate the need for traffic controls like stop lights and signs. That's when motorcycling will really be fun. We can all be Malcolm Smith dodging pucker bushes.

 

[GPzPop]

That's scary, giving up my ability to move freely to some 'control management system'. I'm not opposed to rental companies like Hertz only offering SDV, but damned if I allow ALL traffic to be controlled like that!

but if we give up transportation control to Central Services, how are we gonna get to the Riots and Looting?