Motostats 2007

[DataDan]

You may remember the thread Motostats 2006, in which I presented 2006 data from US DOT, CHP, and other sources on motorcycle crashes, along with my own analysis. In this thread, I'm going to continue with 2007 data as it becomes available. Many of the trends I wrote about for '06 continued in '07, so I won't be repeating topics unless new angles come to light. I'll try to look at different aspects--in particular, more on California and the Bay Area.

If there's something you'd like to see discussed, post up your suggestions and I'll track down the data if I can.

 

[DataDan]

California and the Bay Area

Motorcycle deaths in California and the Bay Area in 2007 were puzzling in a couple of ways. While deaths in the rest of the country increased by 7% from 4837 in 2006 to 5154 in 2007, in California fatalities increased by just 2% from 506 to 517 (see first attachment). The number of registered motorcycles in the state and in the US aren't available yet, but even a modest increase in the number of bikes will result in a decrease in the rate per bike in California.

But at the same time, Bay Area deaths climbed sharply in 2007, from 68 to 95--a 40% increase (see second attachment). Yet, the Bay Area rate per registered bike was well below the statewide rate in '06 and will probably stay below it in '07 as well.

I find the low rate in the Bay Area quite interesting, because urban areas tend to be higher than rural areas due to traffic hazards. With a population of several million packed into a fairly limited geographical area, you'd think the Bay Area would have higher rate. (FYI: I included the 9 counties on the Bay plus Santa Cruz.) Two possible explanations that come to mind are: 1) riding seasonality reduces exposure compared to southern counties; and 2) affluence increases the average number of motorcycles per rider. Any other ideas?


To better understand the sharp rise in deaths in the Bay Area from 2006 to 2007, I looked into two questions: How did the age distribution change, and how did the distribution by motorcycle styles change? IOW, who accounted for the increase and what kinds of bikes were they riding?

All age groups under 50 grew, with the biggest increase in the under-30 group, while the 50-and-over group decreased (see third attachment).

Sportbikes accounted for virtually all of the increase in Bay Area deaths, nearly doubling from 2006, while cruisers showed only a slight increase (see fourth attachment).


Got some thoughts about the Bay Area fatality increase? Post up your ideas and I'll try to dig up the stats.

 

[Zerox]

With a population of several million packed into a fairly limited geographical area, you'd think the Bay Area would have higher rate. (FYI: I included the 9 counties on the Bay plus Santa Cruz.) Two possible explanations that come to mind are: 1) riding seasonality reduces exposure compared to southern counties; and 2) affluence increases the average number of motorcycles per rider. Any other ideas?

BARF hazing of squids cannot be underestimated. :thumbup

 

[budman]

Dan...

Good stuff.. I continue to believe that the sportbikes are so far superior to an avg. riders skills it give a sense of accomplishment that may not be reality. The other piece of the equation is the hills are becoming even more the norm as residential areas and traffic increases on our suburban twisties continue to increase. Even without more and more houses.. we see more and more trips. More kids drive from those homes.. more service companies make their way up thru those twisties too.

Another piece is likely that more folks are riding them as the cool choice for the rides and simple #'s increase the amount of sport bikes on the road and the likelyhood that those models are going to be involved in accidents.

A bunch of smaller factors adding up.

:smoking

 

[slydrite]

DD - did not search, but are there any stats about time of day and day of week when crashes and/or fatalities occur?

Curious about commute times and if the likelihood of car/bike crashes being higher during commute times, which intuitively, seems like they would go up due to density of vehicles sharing roads, distractions, position of sun, sleepiness, etc...

 

[RichK]

It would be interesting to see the percentage of crashes with alcohol as a factor.

Another interesting one (but tough to graph) would be # of crashes vs. gas prices. I think a lot of people dusted off their bikes when gas was $4/gallon, and I've always wondered about that contribution.

 

[GAJ]

Any idea the % of bikes by class; cruiser, sportbike, standard and "other"?

That would help make sense of the raw numbers as they currently support the "common sense" idea that new riders would be better served starting on a "standard."

 

[DataDan]

slydrite wrote: DD - did not search, but are there any stats about time of day and day of week when crashes and/or fatalities occur?

This is quick and dirty, but seems to be accurate (2007 only). I haven't had a chance to analyze it. What do you make of it?

IIRC Motostats 2006 has some info on day and time, and Bay Area sportbike crashes occurred most frequently on weekend afternoons.

 

[DataDan]

It would be interesting to see the percentage of crashes with alcohol as a factor.

Another interesting one (but tough to graph) would be # of crashes vs. gas prices. I think a lot of people dusted off their bikes when gas was $4/gallon, and I've always wondered about that contribution.

Gas prices spiked in '08, but the real data I have is thru 2007. After that all I have is my own collection of news articles. The official data won't be out until September or so.

One interesting feature of the BAC results is that DUI deaths haven't followed the overall trend. I think a big factor is the age groups involved. Riders <30 involved in fatal crashes are less likely to have been drinking than are 30-50s (60+, like <30, are usually not drunk).

That's a good-news story you don't hear about. Younger riders seem to have gotten the message about the danger of drinking and riding. To me, this suggests that a good way to reinforce the anti-drinking-and-riding message for <30s is to emphasize what they have already accepted, rather than pounding it in as if they were resisting it.

 

[DataDan]

Any idea the % of bikes by class; cruiser, sportbike, standard and "other"?

That would help make sense of the raw numbers as they currently support the "common sense" idea that new riders would be better served starting on a "standard."

That conclusion would require some knowledge of the percentages of bikes in the population, to compare to the percentages in fatal crashes. I don't have any data on registered bikes by style.

I've attached a chart by style going back to 2000.

 

[GAJ]

Truly the spike in Sportbike deaths, especially among young people, is horrific.

Is it following the increasing interest on places like YouTube of stunting and such?

 

[mookiera]

You may remember the thread Motostats 2006, in which I presented 2006 data from US DOT, CHP, and other sources on motorcycle crashes, along with my own analysis. In this thread, I'm going to continue with 2007 data as it becomes available. Many of the trends I wrote about for '06 continued in '07, so I won't be repeating topics unless new angles come to light. I'll try to look at different aspects--in particular, more on California and the Bay Area.

If there's something you'd like to see discussed, post up your suggestions and I'll track down the data if I can.

While it might be interesting to ponder 2007 stats, it seems that 2008 was going to be a better year than 2007, as of the end of September, according to the Merc. article quoted in this earlier thread, http://www.bayarearidersforum.com/forums/showthread.php?t=269063

There is no info in there about the mix of motorcycle types, ages or areas, but overall it looks like we were headed for a reduction in deaths in 2008.
Kind of interesting considering the increased motivation to ride of paying $4.91 a gallon in part of 2008. Perhaps fatalities were down in 2008 due to decreased motor vehicle traffic resulting from the high price of gasoline, even
though the number of motorcycle rides was almost certainly higher.
DataDan, do you have any info on 2008 totals?

 

[DataDan]

mookiera wrote: While it might be interesting to ponder 2007 stats, it seems that 2008 was going to be a better year than 2007, as of the end of September, according to the Merc. article quoted in this earlier thread...

I don't have statewide data for 2008, but I do have Bay Area data I've collected from news media. Official data won't be available for 8 months or so.

DataDan, do you have any info on 2008 totals?

The first chart shows Bay Area deaths and fatality rate 2000-2006, with deaths from official sources for 2007 and my own unofficial count for '08 (9 counties on the Bay + Santa Cruz).

The second shows the age distribution of riders in fatal crashes 2000-2008, again from official sources through '07 and my data for '08.

For info, in the past the news media have missed about 10% of fatal motorcycle crashes in the Bay Area, so I expect the official '08 total to be similar to '07.

 

[4tuneit1]

Dan...

Good stuff.. I continue to believe that the sportbikes are so far superior to an avg. riders skills it give a sense of accomplishment that may not be reality. The other piece of the equation is the hills are becoming even more the norm as residential areas and traffic increases on our suburban twisties continue to increase. Even without more and more houses.. we see more and more trips. More kids drive from those homes.. more service companies make their way up thru those twisties too.

Another piece is likely that more folks are riding them as the cool choice for the rides and simple #'s increase the amount of sport bikes on the road and the likelyhood that those models are going to be involved in accidents.

A bunch of smaller factors adding up.



:smoking

What would you propose Bud...tiered licensing? Seems most of the riders i grew up with all started on small CC bikes, then progressed...and most are still alive today. Versus the youth of today who are exposed to high CC sportbikes and little self control on them?

 

[GAJ]

Tiered licensing countries have cooler bikes across the CC range; one of the benefits to all riders.

I don't see it happening in a country where the dominant brand is native and that brand makes virtually nothing below 850cc.

 

[louemc]

As my impression sees it (or suspects it), Tiered licensing wouldn't do much. Sure it would do something, but not the big thing wanted.

Fatal accidents involve a lot of failures. The failure of the driver of heavy metal (all the ways the distracted or incompetent driver manages to turn without looking, not stop at stop places, cross the center line, etc.) Take out the biker, no matter how small the displacement of the bike.

All vehicle drivers/riders, need to have higher standards met to get a license. And fat chance that will happen.

 

[jake28]

One trend that is tangentially related that would be interesting to examine in the next few years is how CA's new ability to set it's own MPG standards affects the number motorcylce purchases and registrations. I have a small hunch that as the expected MPG standards rise, people with no MC background may begin to purchase smaller displacement bikes with good mileage to compensate for their huge guzzling cars.

 

[GoNotShow]

This is quick and dirty, but seems to be accurate (2007 only). I haven't had a chance to analyze it. What do you make of it?

IIRC Motostats 2006 has some info on day and time, and Bay Area sportbike crashes occurred most frequently on weekend afternoons.

DD-

Is there anyway to see more detail on the crashes that occur during commute hours?

When I listen to the traffic reports in the morning I hear about motorcycle incidents several times per week. Perhaps details on those crashes could shed light on do's and don'ts for MC commuters.