Motostats 2006

[wellbredred]

What do you think has driven the motorcycle death rate increase since 1997, and what do you think caused the sharp drop between the ‘80s and the ‘90s?

First off Dan-thanks for putting this together. Excellent and interesting.

Don't have a theory on what caused the drop, but perhaps a comparison of accident locations vs population density changes, could shed a little light on why the increase?

Are states like CA, FL, and AZ driving the overall rate up?

Thanks again,
-M

 

[DataDan]

Let's assume that the ratio of inexperienced riders to experienced riders has increased over the past 10 years.

It stands to reason that during the motorcycling slump of the 1990s, a large percentage of the registered motorcycles belonged to older, more experienced riders who were dedicated enough to stay with the sport even as support and interest wained. Let's also assume that all motorcycles registered since 1996 were registered by newbies.

Can we correlate the increase in new riders with the increase in accidents? Would this explain the ~35% rise in fatalities even as motorcycle training, gear, and equipment has improved?

I think changing average experience in the riding population--and consequent changing average risk--explains part of the decrease in the fatality rate from mid-80s to mid-90s, and virtually all of the subsequent increase.

Hurt and MAIDS both found that risk decreases with experience, as you would expect. Another confirmation can be found in an evaluation of the California Motorcyclist Safety Program. But I don't have a way to show quantitatively the correlation we both think exists.

Go back to the first chart in this thread, which shows regs, deaths, and rate. It appears that registration decline and growth is the force that drives average risk--at least that makes more sense than the converse. When the riding population fell, the n00b percentage must have fallen too. So average experience would increase and average risk would drop. Then when registrations began to climb, the n00b percentage followed, average experience fall, and risk increased.

Viewed that way, the puzzle becomes the rather mild rate increase since 1997. Paralleling a steady drop in regs from the early '80s was a similar decrease in the rate. But then when sales really took off, the rate increased more slowly, and is still nowhere near its '80s highs.

That disparity can be explained, as I see it, by the changing age distribution. N00bs in the 1980s were teens and twenties, the highest risk age groups. Today the average rider is a 40-something and many n00bs are in their 50s, both historically low risk groups.

If, as it now appears, the motorcycle market is headed for a slowdown, this hypothesis would predict a drop in the fatality rate in the next few years, possibly to a new all-time low. Regs will stabilize, if not fall, there will be fewer n00bs, average experience will increase, and average risk will decrease.

 

[DataDan]

Don't have a theory on what caused the drop, but perhaps a comparison of accident locations vs population density changes, could shed a little light on why the increase?

Are states like CA, FL, and AZ driving the overall rate up?

Surprisingly, no.

To find out which states had the biggest increases in rate per registered motorcycle, I calculated the difference between the 3-year average 2004-2006 and the 3-year average 1994-1996. The US rate increased from 57 to 71 deaths per 100,000 registrations.

CA had a below average rate in '95, increased somewhat more than average, and was still below average. FL had a higher than average rate but a lower than average increase. AZ had a higher than average rate and an increase very close to the average.

The ten states whose rates increased most were:

1. MS: 121.25
2. KY: 79.47
3. LA: 71.81
4. DE: 70.27
5. WV: 58.48
6. MD: 40.62
7. NC: 35.95
8. GA: 32.19
9. MO: 29.58
10. NE: 28.04

The ten states whose rates decreased most were:

1. MT: -26.86
2. UT: -23.58
3. AK: -6.78
4. MI: -5.93
5. IL: -2.79
6. CO: -2.22
7. NJ: -1.67
8. HI: -1.60
9. OH: -0.11
10. ND: -0.02

(amounts of increase/decrease are shown)


The attachments below are unrelated to this post. I am using this space as a parking lot for pics since my album is full.

 

[wellbredred]

Surprisingly, no. The ten states whose rates increased most were:

1. MS: 121.25
2. KY: 79.47
3. LA: 71.81
4. DE: 70.27
5. WV: 58.48
6. MD: 40.62
7. NC: 35.95
8. GA: 32.19
9. MO: 29.58
10. NE: 28.04

The ten states whose rates decreased most were:

1. MT: -26.86
2. UT: -23.58
3. AK: -6.78
4. MI: -5.93
5. IL: -2.79
6. CO: -2.22
7. NJ: -1.67
8. HI: -1.60
9. OH: -0.11
10. ND: -0.02

(amounts of increase/decrease are shown)

Thanks DD. Found this interesting. Also found this map of % change in population from 2000 to 2006. Not really the range of your data, but I would think the trend is consistent. So with a few exceptions the states with low-moderate growth rates suffer the higher % increases in accidents/registered vehicle. I mean what is going on in NE? You could explain MS, KY, and LA on lack of education and inbreeding wow :laughing), but NE?

 

[DataDan]

You could explain MS, KY, and LA on lack of education and inbreeding, but NE?

Never been to a Cornhuskers game, have you?


The attachments below are unrelated to this post. I am using this space as a parking lot for pics since my album is full.

 

[wellbredred]

:rofl I had deliberately blocked that part of my life out. Damn

That was for my wife's benefit. My in-laws moved there and for 20+ years I had to go there for family functions and holidays. People around here are "Raider Nation yeah!" They're posers compared to Nebraskans. That whole damn state has "Go BIG RED" fever. Your right NE can be explained by insanity :laughing

 

[DataDan]

Bay Area 2006

A few random facts about 2006 Bay Area fatal crashes:

• 71 motorcycles were involved in 68 fatal crashes: 30 cruisers, 28 sportbikes, 7 standards, 1 dirtbike, 1 scooter, 1 tourer, and 3 unknown.
  
  
• Alameda County had the most fatal crashes with 14, Napa and Marin had the fewest with 2 each.
  
  
• 26 crashes or 38% were single-vehicle and 42 crashes or 62% were multiple-vehicle. 3 were two-motorcycle crashes.
  
  
• 59% of the cruisers and 71% of the sportbikes were involved in multiple-vehicle crashes.
  
  
• Of the 71 riders, 2 were women. One was in her 40s, the other in her 50s. One rode a sportbike, the other a standard. One had .00 BAC, the other did not have BAC reported. Both were helmeted.
  
  
• Average rider age was 41, average cruiser rider was 49, average sportbike rider was 30.
  
  
• 47 crashes, or 69%, occurred April-September. Sportbike crashes were more seasonal with 81% Apr-Sep, while 59% of cruiser crashes were Apr-Sep.
  
  
• Cruiser crashes occurred most frequently between 11:30pm and 4:00am (8 of 28 crashes), and during daylight hours on weekends (7 crashes). Most of the late-night crashes involved alcohol; few daylight crashes did.
  
  
• Sportbike crashes occurred most frequently on weekend afternoons between 2:30 and 6:30 (9 of 27 crashes) and on Thursday and Friday evenings (5 crashes). The few sportbike crashes that involved alcohol occurred in evening and late-night hours.
  
  
• Of the 71 riders, 45 had a valid driver’s license with a motorcycle endorsement, 15 lacked the endorsement, 7 had a suspended or revoked license, 1 was unlicensed, and 3 did not have license status reported. The 34% who weren't properly licensed is somewhat higher than the US percentage reported in an earlier post.
  
  
• Of the 71 riders, 2 were unhelmeted and 4 were reported to have helmets worn "improperly", which I think means that it came off in the crash. However, I don’t believe crash investigators attempt to assess to legality of helmets, so some of the those reported as helmeted may have been wearing non-compliant helmets.
  
  
• Of the 71 riders, 57 had blood alcohol test results reported: 74% of those were 0.00, 23% were .08 or higher, 3% were .01-.07. This is similar to the US data reported earlier.
  
  
• By age, 12% of riders under 30 had .08+ BAC compared to 36% for riders 30-39 and 23% for riders 40 and over. Again, this is similar to the US figures.
  
  
• By motorcycle style, 13% of sportbike riders were .08+ BAC, compared to 37% of cruiser riders and 20% of riders on other/unknown styles.
  
  
• The highest BAC reported for a rider in a fatal crash in the Bay Area in 2006 was .38 for a sportbike rider in his 40s who was running from the police.

Data includes the 9 counties on the Bay plus Santa Cruz.


The attachments below are unrelated to this post. I am using this space as a parking lot for pics since my album is full.

 

[brichter]

Interesting alcohol stats, with such a high percentage of 30-39 year olds, and both older and younger groups being lower.

Does the fatality by manufacturer track registrations by manufacturer, or is there a sportbike brand overrepresented in those stats?

Looks like the cruiser set needs to learn when to put the keys down.

.38? :wtf How'd that clown manage to get it off the kickstand?

 

[DataDan]

Does the fatality by manufacturer track registrations by manufacturer, or is there a sportbike brand overrepresented in those stats?

Very interesting question, but AFAIK, registrations by manufacturer aren't available. What would be required is to get the make and VIN for registered motorcycles in certain zip codes, decode the VIN to derive model ID, map model to "style", then summarize sportbike registrations by manufacturer.


The attachments below are unrelated to this post. I am using this space as a parking lot for pics since my album is full.

 

[Var]

I'd like some info pls Dan.

How about

Out of all MC accidents where the RIDER was at fault, how often did a third party get injured or killed?

 

[DataDan]

Out of all MC accidents where the RIDER was at fault, how often did a third party get injured or killed?

In 2006, 31 occupants of cars and light trucks (pickups, vans, minivans, SUVs) were killed in 2-vehicle crashes with motorcycles.

It’s difficult to figure out who was at fault from NHTSA’s database because you have to infer fault based on multiple factors. And both parties share the blame sometimes, but the database doesn’t provide the color needed to determine who was more at fault as a jury would at trial.

Here are a few examples where the rider was at fault:

• The most horrific crash I know of caused by a motorcyclist occurred in June 2006 and accounted for 4 of the 31 vehicle occupants killed in crashes with motorcyclists that year. A 20-year-old rider on a Kawasaki ZX-6R traveling 129mph--estimated by the National Transportation Safety Board, which investigated the crash--collided with an oncoming minivan turning left into the Renaissance Faire near Linden PA. The rider was decapitated on impact, saving him from the horror his victims would suffer. The motorcycle then penetrated the right-side door of the Plymouth Voyager and overturned it. The bike's gas tank ruptured, and the interior of the van exploded in flames. A mother, father, grandmother, and daughter were all killed, some on impact, others in the fire.
  
  
• In August 2006 in Lexington, KY, a 19-year-old rider on a Suzuki GSX-R600 was running from the cops at high speed when he hit a car pulling out of a gas station. The driver of the Chevy Malibu would die a month later of his injuries. The rider survived and was charged with manslaughter, among other crimes.
  
  
• In February 2006 in Gainesville, FL, a 24-year-old rider on a Honda CBR900RR with a passenger hit a bicyclist attempting to cross the 2-lane road. The motorcyclist, whose license was suspended for the third time, was traveling 73mph in a 60mph zone; the bicyclist was drunk. All three died.
  
  
• You can read a 2005 BARF thread about a rider who killed himself and severely injured a woman driving a VW Passat here. The 22-year-old rider on his 2-week-old R6 blew through a stop sign on a residential street in Alameda and T-boned the car, crossing on a street with no stop sign, at an estimated 44mph. He was killed; she was seriously injured but saved by a side-impact airbag.
  
  
• More recently, in January of this year a motorcyclist in Palm Harbor, FL traveling at an estimated 140mph hit an oncoming Chevy Suburban as it turned left. The ‘Burb was spun around, overturned, and set on fire. Both the rider and driver were killed. See pic below.

 

[Var]

So basically 3 times as many people get killed by lightning each year than by motorcyclists.

About 20 times as many get killed by accidental discharge of firearms.

322 times as many get murdered



why do we get enforced against so ruthlessly?

 

[Carlo]

Dan, given the time and effort you put into the research and writing of this excellent article, I hope that you're also trying to sell it to the motorcycling press.

This deserves widespread publication, and you deserve to get paid for your work.

 

[brichter]

So basically 3 times as many people get killed by lightning each year than by motorcyclists.

About 20 times as many get killed by accidental discharge of firearms.

322 times as many get murdered



why do we get enforced against so ruthlessly?

Good question for the LEOs. Go ask it in the LEO forum.

 

[AFM535]

Dan, given the time and effort you put into the research and writing of this excellent article, I hope that you're also trying to sell it to the motorcycling press.

This deserves widespread publication, and you deserve to get paid for your work.

+1

 

[DataDan]

Bay Area sportbike crashes

Because sportbikes are the main interest at BARF, I looked into the 27 fatal Bay Area sportbike crashes in 2006 in more detail.

• Of the sportbikes involved in fatal crashes, there were 10 Hondas, 8 Suzukis, 6 Yamahas, 2 Kawasakis, 1 Aprilia, and 1 Triumph.
  
  
• CBR600s (Fs and RRs), GSX-R600s, GSX-R750s, and R6s accounted for 15 of the 28 motorcycles. Literbikes accounted for only 6. There were no Hayabusas or ZX-12s.
  
  
• Riders who die on sportbikes aren't "kids". Average age was 30.
  
  
• Of the 27 fatal sportbike crashes (including one involving 2 sportbikes), only 9 occurred in what might be called sport-riding environments--twisty roads in rural areas. The other 18 occurred in urban/suburban environments, where different skills are called for--skills that have nothing to do with getting a knee down and which are the same whether you're riding a Gixxer, a Harley or a Vespa.
  
  
• Of the 27 fatal sportbike crashes, 19 were clearly caused by riders, 2 were clearly caused by drivers, 5 were caused by a combination of rider and driver actions, and 1 was a shit-happens incident where a motorcyclist was caught up in a 9-vehicle melee resulting from debris dropped in heavy freeway traffic. In other words, 24 of the 27 sportbike deaths that occurred in the Bay Area in 2006 could have been prevented by the rider.

What contributions did riders make to those 24 preventable crashes?

• In 7, the motorcycle ran wide in curve and hit an oncoming vehicle, guardrail, tree, fence, or other fixed object.
  
  
• In 2, a stunt went wrong.
  
  
• In 2, the rider made an unsafe pass and hit, in one case, the vehicle being passed as is turned left, and in the other case an oncoming vehicle.
  
  
• In 2, the rider ran a red light and hit a crossing vehicle. One was running from police.

In the remaining 11 crashes, "excessive speed" was cited. But that doesn't tell us much because 100mph could be perfectly safe in one situation and 25 could be deadly in another. So I looked into these crashes in more detail to find out how speed contributed.

• In 5, the rider was speeding in the presence of traffic and hit a turning or crossing vehicle. In some of these, the driver also contributed by failing to yield right of way.
  
  
• In 4, the rider lost control of the motorcycle on a straight road and hit either an oncoming vehicle or a fixed object.
  
  
• In 1, a drunk running from police lost control and hit a curb, signpost, and tree.
  
  
• In 1, at 100mph, the motorcycle rear-ended a car traveling at 70mph on the freeway.

If there's a lesson here, it's that sportbike riders make their own trouble; they're usually not victims of other motorists' errors. This is bad news for those who would prefer to rationalize away their self-created risk but good news for those looking for ways to reduce it.

 

[Var]

In 4, the rider lost control of the motorcycle on a straight road and hit either an oncoming vehicle or a fixed object.

you think these guys were stunting?

 

[DataDan]

Stunts weren't mentioned, but are possible in some.

One was riding a "new Suzuki [2006 GSX-R600] at high speed when he was ejected...upon hitting the median."

One lost control on a city street, crossed the median, and hit another vehicle head-on. Information is thin, and speed is the only factor mentioned.

One was drunk and ran off the road, killing his passenger. Both speed and recklessness were reported.

One was riding at 70mph on the Bay Bridge in heavy fog and lost control on wet pavement.

The attachments below are unrelated to this post. I am using this space as a parking lot for pics since my album is full.

 

[Var]

So many different scenarios, so many different ways to die.

 

[DataDan]

Yeah, and that's really why I looked into the details behind those 27 sportbike crashes. Boiling them down to "excessive speed", as police and news media are inclined to do, isn't at all helpful.

There are some specific lessons here (Don't stunt where you might run into either a) a parked car, or b) another stunter), but trying to find a few general rules that will cover many situations is much harder. Stay within your limits? Sure, but limits are uselessly defined in terms of outcome: If you crash, you've exceeded your limits. If not, you're cool.

I think the real value in crash studies isn't in sweeping conclusions that cover, in no more than a general way, a large percentage of crashes. Rather, the value is in studying individual crashes. What did the situation look like before the pivotal event that led to the crash? Which parties made the key mistakes? What unilateral action could the motorcyclist have taken to terminate the chain of events before it turned deadly? A rider who's willing to accept full responsibility for his own survival and to look objectively at the mistakes other riders have made can gain much from studying crashes in detail.


The attachments below are unrelated to this post. I am using this space as a parking lot for pics since my album is full.