Motorcyclists Cognitive Bias

[Hank Wong]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvm4Wm_ZvuE

Good stuff about bias as related to motorcycle riding!
It may or may not help us remove our biases, but at least we are made aware of them.

 

[budman]

Interesting.

Like to hear more.

 

[rodr]

He has a bunch of great videos. Click on his name and then Videos.

I like the point about risk levels. While we get better from experience and/or training, most of us continue to push our limits and fail to reduce our chances of getting hurt.

 

[bikeama]

He has a bunch of great videos. Click on his name and then Videos.

I like the point about risk levels. While we get better from experience and/or training, most of us continue to push our limits and fail to reduce our chances of getting hurt.

I think that only comes with age.

 

[budman]

I like the point about risk levels. While we get better from experience and/or training, most of us continue to push our limits and fail to reduce our chances of getting hurt.

For me that is true to some extent. However my street limits have always been well below my track limits and even further from the old racing limits.

The difference that needs to be noted is the additional risk that the street brings. I feel I ride, when "on it" I am at 6/10ths of what I could try to do, but the risk of a riding mistake gets a lot higher as you up it. Bottom line is the unknown is more of a risk than a riding risk (losing on the brakes, running off the road because I am going to fast etc.)

I will check out more of his stuff and maybe I will have to reaccess. :laughing

 

[Hank Wong]

I will paraphrase for those who don't watch the video.

Motorcycle expert Bret Tkacs lists and explains four cognitive biases in the video. They are:
1. Dunning Kruger effect - every motorcyclist, in his own mind, is either an expert or at least above average.
2. Confirmation bias - one tends to confirm things that agree with their belief and the learning stops there. For example, loud pipe saves lives, I read an article about loud pipe saves lives in Rolling Thunder magazine and all my riding buddies also say so. So it must be true, right? Someone in this forum told me that I should jump before a collision. Must be true, right? Someone says the majority of motorcycle fatalities is caused by left turning vehicles blocking the rider's path, must be true, right? Wrong! The majority of motorcycle fatalities is caused by a rider riding out of his lane by either crossing the double yellow into the opposite oncoming traffic lane or by simply failing to turn and riding off the road.
3. Risk compensation - one is actually more at risk after one thinks he has it down, i.e. non-swimmers don't drown. Bret Tkacs says a study shows motorcylists are the most at risk of a crash about 24 months into his riding career.
4. Blind spot - we are good at pointing out faults, just not our own. In discussion about what riders are not doing right, we tend to think it is someone else and not me.

I will add a few more cognitive biases.
1. We are the center of the universe - ancient astronomers observes all the celestial objects circling around us, so we must be the center of the universe.
2. Sunrise - the sun does not rise or set no matter what we call it. It is the earth or the point of view of the observer on a rotating earth.
3. Dead man barrel roll - after a pilot goes through a barrel roll maneuver, his sensory inputs tell him that he is still rolling and to correct when his HSI says he is level. A pilot has to learn to trust his instrument over his sensory input.
4. Kids hurting their wrists after jumping and landing in a 3 point stand like their hero the Iron Man.

 

[berth]

I think the video was ok, in that it simply brought the issues up, but didn't explore them at all.

Simply, it said "hey rider, you're the problem" without offering any solutions. But it's only 8m, so whaddya want.

 

[N4teTheGreat]

Bret Tkacs has a lot of great videos. This is on part of a classroom session he did, I *think* he recorded the whole thing so there are other parts out there with the what you should do about it bits

 

[DataDan]

The basic idea behind risk compensation--point #3 on Tkacs' slide--is that the risk we experience depends not just on the possibility of a crash but also on our perceptions and reactions.

Physical risk exists independent of our perception. I.e., that oncoming vehicle may or may not make a left turn across our path. But the risk we experience in that situation depends also on adjustments we make. We try to "see and be seen", we slow down and cover the brake. Employing those countermeasures DOES depend on our perception and has the effect of reducing risk. That is risk compensation. The same situation is more dangerous to someone who sees it as less serious, less dangerous to someone who sees it as more serious. Tkacs said, "the more dangerous something is, the less risk you take." I call that the paradox of risk perception.

He said also: "Each one of us has some kind of risk level, and we always seem to migrate back to that." That level is bounded at the upper end by risk tolerance and at the lower end by an appetite for risk. If risk seems too high, we lower it by adjusting our riding or simply by staying home. But we can also increase it to keep riding interesting. Let's face it: Risk is one reason we like motorcycling. The demands it makes on our senses and skills are part of the fun. The range between those limits varies widely among individuals, and it changes as the circumstances of our lives change.

Tkacs says: "There's something we have to be very careful about when we become better and more skilled riders: that we don't eat up that benefit by changing our habits and increasing our risk." Improved skill can make riding more fun, and it can make riding safer. But according to the risk compensation model, it makes us safer only if it reduces our tolerance for risk (not likely) or improves our perception of risk (definite possibility if the skill is situational awareness). Instead, we will almost certainly put a skill improvement to use expanding our riding horizons. A noob uses his newly developed skills to do the basic stuff, an experienced rider to ride faster and farther with more confidence. But both will change their habits, as Tkacs warns against. In fact, that's why we get trained--to make it possible to do more within our range of acceptable risk.

More in the 1Rider thread, Risky Business.

 

[Maddevill]

Riding fast on the track is a test of your skill
Riding fast on the street is a test of your nerve.

Mad

 

[budman]

Truth.. but the street is road smarts and nerve.

I see lots of guys who ride fast on the street that are extremely skilled and smart and have the nerve to apply it.

It is not for all and some of them have been bitten.
I still get wowed by it.

 

[Hank Wong]

Riding fast on the track is a test of your skill
Riding fast on the street is a test of your nerve.

Mad

There is a saying in the fighter pilot community. There are old pilots and there are bold pilots, but there are not any old bold pilots.

 

[Wolf]

Good stuff. Presented very clearly.

 

[VicTim]

That kind of told me what I already thought.

 

[Wolf]

That kind of told me what I already thought.

:rofl