Coronavirus New York vs Ca

[banshee01]

Well we are going the opposite direction New York is going. They started off really bad and we started off relatively good. They have much more deaths because of their horrible start but their case numbers seem like they have a good hold on it now

Is It because New York was scared straight and now everyone is talking it more serious? Do they have a much higher infection rate than reported and now the virus is slowing down? What do you guys think?

Ca vs New York

 

[banshee01]

Ny has about 4x the amount of deaths as Ca being reported 32k vs 8k but overall reported cases are about the same around 440k.

New york was hit early when testing was not what it is now. With 4x as many death I do believe their infection rate is much higher than reported (ours also).

 

[GAJ]

NYC took it on the chin early.

Hence the confusion/lack of supplies/learning as you go.

As you say, "scared straight."

The rest of us are learning from their being the "first through the door."

Or not.

 

[Agent Orange]

It was mostly the City and the surrounding Burroughs that got the brunt of it right? NY was able to take it pretty much head on despite the price being paid. CA meanwhile is disorganized and largely on different fronts when it comes to fighting this. Death by a thousand cuts.

 

[Marcoose]

CA meanwhile is disorganized and largely on different fronts when it comes to fighting this. Death by a thousand cuts.

IMHO, the disorganisation you allude to was from having to cave in to an unstoppable tsunami of politically-led pressure to re-open. You'll certainly remember mobs of deniers in closed beaches, parks, etc, and the escalating protests against unemployment, financial troubles, etc. There wasn't then, there isn't now a safe way to stop those mobs. Stupid will be stupid. And hence the cave in. All that IMHO. And now all bets are in.

And to be fair, my UC Berkeley educated, liberal, progressive pals have not yet taken this virus seriously. They're socialising and bragging about it just about the same. You know, 'the virus is southern California' mentality. Well said, death by a thousand cuts.

The experts are saying that to 'kill' the spread, it's another 8 or so weeks of draconian nationwide shutdown. LOL. Good luck with that.

 

[DataDan]

On April 6, the peak of the OP's NYC graph, 1.1% of the city's population had confirmed cases. On that same date in California, it was 0.04%. The virus had barely touched our state.

On June 16, when California cases began to climb, 0.4% of the population had confirmed cases--still comparatively low penetration.

As of July 27, 1.2% of Californians had confirmed cases, and the new-case curve looks like it is peaking (6 days since the daily new case high).

In my opinion, what is seen in New York is the virus dying out, and we are now seeing the same thing in California.

California data from CA Dept of Public Health. For New York City data, I found a source similar to the OP's and followed a link for data behind the graph.

 

[Yakoo752]

What do you mean by dying off?

The disease hasn't mutated significantly.

I would wager, people are taking it more seriously and it isn't being transmitted as often...

I just don't like the blanket term dying off because it would infer that it's not as... as it once was.

(not attacking you, just asking clarity)

 

[DataDan]

I meant that it's having a hard time finding people to infect, not that it has changed.

 

[Marcoose]

As of July 27, 1.2% of Californians had confirmed cases...

I meant that it's having a hard time finding people to infect...

98.8% of Californians to go. Loads and loads of low-hanging fruit still to be infected. I think we're seeing people getting a WTF shocker with the recent death numbers, and even the daftest of clowns are finally abiding to hand hygiene, masks and distancing. But we've been here before, the 'curve is flattening', and people get fed up with the government taking their freedoms. Rinse and repeat. The curve will bend upwards again soon. (I hope not, though.)

 

[N4teTheGreat]

Summer in California is hard to resist, perfect weather for being outside. Summer in NY, it's kind of oppressive, hot humid and stinky, maybe that plus the early outbreak experience is keeping people more conservative back east?

 

[mlm]

98.8% of Californians to go. Loads and loads of low-hanging fruit still to be infected. I think we're seeing people getting a WTF shocker with the recent death numbers, and even the daftest of clowns are finally abiding to hand hygiene, masks and distancing. But we've been here before, the 'curve is flattening', and people get fed up with the government taking their freedoms. Rinse and repeat. The curve will bend upwards again soon. (I hope not, though.)

I know a few anti-maskers on FB and can tell you they are not impressed They live in the worst hit areas (Fresno, San Benito, San Diego) and continue posting every bullshit contradictory source there is. One person posted the Frontline Doctors crap along with how masks poison you with CO2 and she works in a doctors office :wtf

 

[yumdumpster]

I know a few anti-maskers on FB and can tell you they are not impressed They live in the worst hit areas (Fresno, San Benito, San Diego) and continue posting every bullshit contradictory source there is. One person posted the Frontline Doctors crap along with how masks poison you with CO2 and she works in a doctors office :wtf

I doubt these people will change their minds even if they were to get it, they are way too far down their ideological holes at this point to come up for air.

 

[Archimedes]

NY under tested early and killed off their most vulnerable already...

That's why they look so good right now. Everyone else is just catching up.

 

[Yakoo752]

NY under tested early and killed off their most vulnerable already...

That's why they look so good right now. Everyone else is just catching up.

That doesn't make sense, I wager they're just protecting them a bit better.

30k in a population of 8.5M

 

[DataDan]

New York City (population 8 million) is well over the hump:

New cases in the past week: 1,933
Deaths in the past week: 55​

California (population 40 million) daily new case count peaked two weeks ago but is still very high, and daily deaths are still climbing:

New cases in the past week: 52,879
Deaths in the past week: 983​

If lockdown remains in NYC dunno), it is public penance for their horrific elder abuse in the spring. I doubt that it has any effect.

IMHO, California can look for a decline first in cases (happening now), then in deaths (beginning in the next week or so), similar to New York. That should trigger an end to enforced lockdown, leaving people to assess their own vulnerability and protect themselves accordingly. But we know that's not gonna happen.

California data from the Department of Public Health.
New York City data from NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (today's download and one on 7/28).

 

[banshee01]

I know a few anti-maskers on FB and can tell you they are not impressed They live in the worst hit areas (Fresno, San Benito, San Diego) and continue posting every bullshit contradictory source there is. One person posted the Frontline Doctors crap along with how masks poison you with CO2 and she works in a doctors office :wtf

You meant San Bernardino not San Benito yeah?

Southern Ca has the top 5 hardest hit (most cases) (most deaths) counties in CA. Hell Los Angeles has almost 50% of Ca totala

 

[Marcoose]

...leaving people to assess their own vulnerability and protect themselves accordingly. But we know that's not gonna happen.

I think what's not going to happen is people to assess their own vulnerability and protect themselves accordingly. The idea that consumers are rational has more holes than a Swiss cheese. I don't like the 'enforced lockdown' either.

 

[brichter]

I know a few anti-maskers on FB and can tell you they are not impressed They live in the worst hit areas (Fresno, San Benito, San Diego) and continue posting every bullshit contradictory source there is. One person posted the Frontline Doctors crap along with how masks poison you with CO2 and she works in a doctors office :wtf

The big thing now for these idiots is posting the recovered numbers/total infections, at the same time they post deaths/the entire state's population. :rofl:rofl:rofl

You can tell who didn't get past middle school math. :toothless