Be honest...what do you think motorcycling will look like 15 years from now?

[gixxerjeff]

The thread title says it all.
I was going to drop this link in on the electric motorcycle thread until I started thinking about what the riding landscape will look like later. The boom our sport enjoyed died 12 years ago with the recession for a variety of reasons.
Young people are not in the same hurry that many of us were to get our licenses for cars, let alone inconvenient and scary motorcycles.
Will the electric bikes save the day? Are ICE bikes a dying breed?
I see less and less bikes on the road these days and those that are out there seem to be dominated by "my" demographic. (old guy).
How do you envision our sport going forward?
https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/31/cars/electric-motorcycles/index.html
Are our days as anything but a cool niche hobby numbered?
:ride

 

[Lowerside]

Optimistic: Low CC equivalent of electric moped / electric bicycle hybrids will dominate the space that commuter motorcycles would have taken. Larger electrics will become the Harleys for that generation with it's own pirate club dress up equivalent. ICE machines will be ridden by wealthy people as status symbols to show that they have the free time to wrench on a passion project. The track scene is still around but with way more electric.

Pessimistic: They're banned in most of the Western world inside of cities. Further dealer sales are banned. Existing owners get to keep or sell their bikes and atrophy will ensure that no riders or bikes will be around by the next century.

 

[GPzPop]

I live for the moment
and cannot, will not predict the future beyond two weeks out

 

[East Bay Mike]

I’ll ride whatever I want to in 15 years from now, if I’m still alive.

 

[Marcoose]

More electric models, some AVs, more roads than I know what to do with, plenty of riding for those willing and able to. Motorcycling will be just fine.

 

[jd41]

Literbikes will be churning out 210+ hp stock trim :ride

 

[budman]

Take my prediction with a grain of simulated salt.

ICE bikes will be facing a no more manufacturing date of 2050. Alternate power sources have been implemented to keep moving tech forward.

SuperEcross dominates all Motorsports.

Rocco Landers is MotoGP’s the last ICE world champion. :flag Rossi retires :teeth

2035 is the last year of ICE bike being the premiere class at the Isle of Man. Hickey owns the last ICE lap record at 148.364 mph

You can put touring bikes on auto pilot if you dare.

There will be a Lanesplitting tax deduction for commuters.

All new cars can see via camera and gps where moto’s are.

All new moto’s will have gps speed /locators making bikes from the ‘20s a hot commodity to thrill seekers.

EDRAGmoto is becoming popular with online gambling.

Kawasaki ads on futuretube feature “let the good time roll” with aliens in white suits.

KTM has won Dakar 32 times in a row.

Jeff Ward is a State Senator.

Holister Hill’s and all OHV parks become EV only except in Winter.

AFM turns 80 and stays committed to allowing a place to race ICE bikes. Holeshot wins F-50.

Budman takes his last ride

 

[tuxumino]

electric motorcycles/bicycles around 150 pounds with 150 mile range with replaceable batteries that you exchange at charging stations.
not fast but fast enough for commute purposes.
Rail to where you want to go then rent the electric bicycle to get around.

 

[DataDan]

Last of the Baby Boomers will be taking their last ride.

Gen X will dominate motorcycling. The leading edge is now turning 55 and discovering or rediscovering motorcycles, same as Boomers did in the late 1990s. With empty nests and fat paychecks, their numbers will grow over the next 15 years. MHO: They will want fast bikes like they had or wanted when they were 25 (1990-2008), so less a Harley market than the Boomers were. No interest in E-bikes.

Millennials will continue to ride what they're riding today, then decline in numbers as they hit their peak family and career years. By 2035 they won't yet have entered the post-parenting, re-moto phase that Gen X will be in. Will they want E-bikes? :dunno

Gen Z? I don't see many < 20s on motorcycles. I don't see how they become a significant factor in motorcycling if they haven't yet gone batshit crazy over motorcycles as we in earlier generations did at that age. If there is a market for E-bikes, this would seem to be it.

My general view on E-bikes is that they might eventually become a low-price commuting option, but we're still a decade away from the "low price" part. And back to the batshit crazy thing: It's a non sequitur with E-bikes. They're quiet, efficient, sensible, and virtuous. They don't make you go WOO-HOO inside your helmet and they aren't gonna get you laid. A transportation appliance like a Prius, not a soul-stirring machine like a Monster.

 

[motomania2007]

By 2035:

I doubt you will be able to buy new massed produced ICE motorcycles.

Sales of new motorcycles plummet. Suzuki, Kawasaki either merge moto production or cease moto production entirely.

Motorcycle licensing will require even less training as rider aids (autonomous) motorcycles become the norm.

By 2040 I doubt motorcycles or cars that are manually operated will be legally allowed in the cities and urban freeways.

 

[bikewanker]

I plan to have a liter bike in 15 years and rent it to you pessimists for exorbitantly disgusting $ based on average speed and rpms.

 

[gixxerjeff]

I tend to agree with the demise of ICE predictions.
The notion saddens me as I made my living with them for 40 years but I understand the direction things are headed.
There does seem to be room for optimism as far as the future of motos which is a good thing.
I tend to believe Budman's well thought out post (as well as a few others) hits the mark. We are close to the same age Dennis. If I don't take my last ride around the same time you do I won't be far behind. I predict we will both be doing stoppies in the halls of our retirement homes on our Lark scooters though.
That'll be cool.

 

[kuksul08]

I think there will still be tons of gas motorcycles and it won't look that different, except you will see a large number of electric bikes too, and growing numbers because the price and performance will outweigh a gas bike.

 

[moto-rama]

I'll be 83 in 15 years, so I predict that Vincent Black Shadows, and RC45s will be selling for 15 grand on ebay.

 

[greenmonster]

I think Moto manufacturers gave up on the US market years ago - when was the last time you saw an an ad or commercial for motorcycles? Overseas the demand for gas driven “motorbikes” is still huge and I think will remain so since gas is easier to obtain than electricity in many instances.

 

[cheez]

I think that as autonomous vehicles mature, we will see more gyroscopic two-wheeled vehicles, for a number of reasons- maintenance costs, vehicle width, comfort in turns at high speed, etc. I wouldn't necessarily call them motorcycles, they'll be fully enclosed and designed to protect the occupant in a crash.

America won't relegate the ability for manually operated vehicles in my lifetime or probably my nephew's, but it could happen. I believe that the sport of motorcycling will continue to dwindle as fewer folks are interested in the physical risks it involves and would instead rather simulate it with a VR/MoSim rig.

+1 to the "EVs will rule the world" comments. There's too much efficiency to be had from the high torque and low maintenance of electric motors to ignore them now that we're reaching energy storage densities that can provide utility at a distance.

 

[strictlyJDM]

Valentino finally wins #10

Haha

 

[dittoalex]

Barrier to entry for American Gen Z and Gen Y middle class has been raised to unaffordable luxury on the expensive coast and the rest of the country will soon follow.

But it seems to be picking up steam in the rest of the world where PPP has been increasing for the working class.

 

[Tim-That CX Guy]

Something like this. . .

 

[greenmonster]

FYI the latest CA DMV data for December 2018 shows 857,677 motorcycles registered which I find significant. Cars registered is 25,646,228.