Are Motorcycles as Viable Transportation Dead?

[VicTim]

It seems that the motorcycle industry in the U.S is shrinking. Young people are no longer starting to ride. Cars are becoming almost automatic. They self park, have warning systems, air bags and emergency brake on their own. Motorcycling remains a risky way to travel.

I see very few people commuting on motorcycles and with the shit show of traffic in the Bay Area even more dangerous. It seems fewer and fewer people want to risk riding with gaggles of distracted and angry cagers. A lot of people ride, dirt, track and weekend twisty riding but this is more sport or hobby than transportation.

So how do you see it? Will motorcycles continue as a viable form of transportation or will it just slowly become more of just a sport or hobby with people riding dirt, track or weekend twisty roads.

 

[sniper1rfa]

Driving generally is going to be less common - it's pretty clear that self driving cars (or self driving whatevers) are going to be a thing eventually; the incentives all point to self-driving vehicles.

There will be no place on the road for motorcycles in a world of self-driving cars.

That said, I think there is currently a renaissance in small bikes and scooters for short distance travel, as urban centers become larger and more densely populated. I think that trend will continue for a fairly long time before it dies off again. I bet it's a result of people casting around for alternatives to cars.

 

[lam@barf]

As self-driving cars take over I see a safer environment for bikes.

As long as riders are willing to have transponders on their bikes there doesn't seem to be a reason why we won't stop getting hit. Cars will no longer be operated by the inattentive and/or incompetent.

Motorcycles could be that last refuge of competent adults that choose to operate their own vehicles. Of course getting that 'M' is going to be increasingly difficult.

 

[berth]

So how do you see it? Will motorcycles continue as a viable form of transportation or will it just slowly become more of just a sport or hobby with people riding dirt, track or weekend twisty roads.

They'll be as viable as they always were.

They've always been unsafe, uncomfortable, and maintenance heavy in contrast to cars. The only saving grace they ever had was price. But today, modern cars are so good, and the electronics keep the maintenance low and the fundamentals operating (i.e. the thing will start pretty much 100%), that $2000 for a used bike vs a used car for most people is simply not a debate (also due to the unsafe/uncomfortable nature of the motorcycle).

So, even price is not longer really a selling point for a motorcycle. They have everything going against them but, simply, they pretty much always have so this is nothing new.

I learned to drive, but my first vehicle (past my moped, which I don't really count), was my scooter. When I moved on from that, I didn't even consider a car, I moved up to a normal motorcycle. Frankly, the only thing that got me into my first truck was a girlfriend.

But my new motorcycle was $2000 at the time, and a new truck was $10000, so there was a big savings differential. Now a new (compared to what I bought) motorcycle is $6000 and a new car $15000-20000. It's not uncommon for young people today to be driving cars older than they are, if they're driving at all.

Having just returned from the Motorcycle Show, it was interesting how downplayed sport bikes are nowadays. The upright adventure segment and naked bikes are everywhere.

 

[Pking]

I think motorcycles will still be around even with the gradual shift of driverless cars. They might be more electronic or automated but they will exist. I'm pretty sure law enforcement will probably have them the most.

 

[NoTraffic]

I think there will always be room for two wheels in dense metropolitans as there are key advantages. Living in SF, I turned to two wheels for its advantages and fun. I'll admit, if I was living anywhere else in the bay area except for maybe Oakland/Berkeley, I'd be caging it and riding a mc-weekends only for fun.

Scoot is a rapidly, progressing business here in SF where I think riders who would normally ride a bicycle are riding electric sharing two wheelers. Try to look for a free mc space in downtown SF M-F, after 10am, you'll be denied.

 

[FXCLM5]

Have you seen the last gen and this current gen of drivers? Id say 50% of them or less dont even bother getting a license anymore.

Its fukn crazy, they all glued onto their smartphones, when i got to drive, i begged to take the car when my parents got home to drive around for a few hours before dinner time. Your friend didnt pick up the house line - fine i go to his fukn house m'fer, now its smarthphone direct interface and direct messaging.........

 

[budman]

It was never viable for me because of the need to carry stuff.

I also have been blessed with a very short commute. Once in a while I will ride when I know I only need to bring a folder/notepad.

As traffic increases it would seem longer commutes can be shortened when on two wheels.

My answer = :dunno

 

[Not Karl Malden]

From a utility point of view just look at Asia for the answer to viability. Millions of people riding in, through, around, and next to all kinds of imaginable traffic conditions. Sure cargo, exposure, and safety are factors but balance that against maneuverability, economy, and practicality. I think over the long run bikes will never lose their utility value as transportation but their lifestyle value is a moving target in today's world of changing demographics.

 

[Marcoose]

Will motorcycles continue as a viable form of transportation or will it just slowly become more of just a sport or hobby with people riding dirt, track or weekend twisty roads.

Viable is a funny word. Able? Capable? Yes. But in America, AFAIK, it was never a main form of transportation, rather a marginal one. Too many "I know cold but don't ride when it drops below 60" "riders". OTOH, it's a popular hobby, and I imagine it'll stay like that. Regarding safety, I'd like to hope the introduction of the self-driving car will offset the distracted driver problem, and the left lane hogging problem, and the tailgating problem, and the road rage problem, etc.

 

[NoobCorpse]

The US has never focused on motorcycles as viable transportation, IMHO - they're "powersports" toys. Whereas in Asia and Europe they are primary transportation for personal and business use. I've seen scooters in Vietnam and the Philippines used as pizza delivery vehicles, courier vehicles, family transportation, and daily drivers. I saw 2 schoolgirls on a scooter riding on the side of the road in the dirt, over bumps and ruts, with no thought to gear, crashbars, dirt training, or "adventure" farkle.
The "big bike" riders all come out on the weekend in the Philippines, the folks who ride for pleasure, and you'll see a lot of italian and japanese supersports, maybe even some KTMs. Duterte, the current president of the Philippines, rides Harleys and Ducatis, apparently.

Where to start for how & why it's treated as a death wish sport in the US? Wide open spaces & long distances in more suburban areas, liability / legality, insurance industry, low/no license requirements (lower barrier of entry), high risk of injury / death, etc.

I'm optimistically hoping that self-driving cars eliminate a lot of the roadgoing users who view driving as a chore and would rather stare at their phones - I'll take my chances with a camera array & software algorithm versus a stressed-out / overcaffeinated / drunk / tired / angry / distracted human any day of the week.


Also: IMHO, we need much more strict and regimented licensing here in the US, but that's just my opinion - call me a communist if you like. There's a lot of people who shouldn't be riding at certain levels (or riding a smaller bike) and need more training and instruction. It's not impossible to be 16 years old, go out and pick yourself up a 180hp 1000cc supersport, with zero rider training and have a go.

 

[Hank Wong]

How much are tires and oil change at a moto dealer? They're putting themselves out of business.

 

[mrmarklin]

It seems that the motorcycle industry in the U.S is shrinking. Young people are no longer starting to ride. Cars are becoming almost automatic. They self park, have warning systems, air bags and emergency brake on their own. Motorcycling remains a risky way to travel.

I see very few people commuting on motorcycles and with the shit show of traffic in the Bay Area even more dangerous. It seems fewer and fewer people want to risk riding with gaggles of distracted and angry cagers. A lot of people ride, dirt, track and weekend twisty riding but this is more sport or hobby than transportation.

So how do you see it? Will motorcycles continue as a viable form of transportation or will it just slowly become more of just a sport or hobby with people riding dirt, track or weekend twisty roads.

Never been to Paris or Rome, right?:rofl

 

[DataDan]

In America motorcycles are toys (in the best sense of the word, of course ) that captured a generation--the Baby Boomers--in our formative years. The sport has thrived thanks to affluence that allows an average-income Joe to spend a few thousand bucks on a once-a-week ride (where "a few" is more like "ten" these days).

The moto-boom we have enjoyed for the past 50 years is a fluke. In 1959, nutjob Soichiro Honda had this preposterous dream that he could sell 10,000 dinky little motorbikes per month to Americans who would rather be driving a Caddy with sky-high tailfins, or at the very least a VW bug. But the crazy old geezer was right, thanks to his machine's appeal to the postwar generation with a few bucks jingling in their pockets and an uncontrollable urge to hit the road.

Younger generations--who we have raised to be highly risk-averse--will not be persuaded to take up a mode of transport in which the chance of crashing is nearly double that of a car, and crash lethality (the chance of dying in the event of a crash) is 30 times greater than for a car. Yeah, no thanks, Gramps. You go ahead and live out your Valentino Rossi or Jim Bronson fantasy. Just give me the keys to the fucking Suburban.

On this subject, here's an article from the LA Times Friday that's worth reading:

Secret motorcycle industry panel looks for ways to reverse sagging sales

Hours before the 2017 Progressive International Motorcycle Show opened its doors at the Long Beach Convention Center, a secret cabal of industry veterans was meeting privately to discuss troubled U.S. motorcycle sales.

Organized by power sports consultant Robert Pandya, who until recently helped manage marketing and public relations for Indian Motorcycle, the anonymous group of 25 experts held an informal summit to try to forge a way forward for an industry that many believe has reached a crisis.

Included in the group were current and former motorcycle company senior managers, industry consultants, marketing executives, veteran motorcycle journalists, retired racers and non-professionals passionate about riding.

“It’s an opportunity for experienced industry as well as enthusiast owners to anonymously and critically weigh in on opportunities to grow and expand motorcycling,” Pandya said.
​

 

[VicTim]

In America motorcycles are toys (in the best sense of the word, of course ) that captured a generation--the Baby Boomers--in our formative years. The sport has thrived thanks to affluence that allows an average-income Joe to spend a few thousand bucks on a once-a-week ride (where "a few" is more like "ten" these days).

The moto-boom we have enjoyed for the past 50 years is a fluke. In 1959, nutjob Soichiro Honda had this preposterous dream that he could sell 10,000 dinky little motorbikes per month to Americans who would rather be driving a Caddy with sky-high tailfins, or at the very least a VW bug. But the crazy old geezer was right, thanks to his machine's appeal to the postwar generation with a few bucks jingling in their pockets and an uncontrollable urge to hit the road.

Younger generations--who we have raised to be highly risk-averse--will not be persuaded to take up a mode of transport in which the chance of crashing is nearly double that of a car, and crash lethality (the chance of dying in the event of a crash) is 30 times greater than for a car. Yeah, no thanks, Gramps. You go ahead and live out your Valentino Rossi or Jim Bronson fantasy. Just give me the keys to the fucking Suburban.

On this subject, here's an article from the LA Times Friday that's worth reading:

Secret motorcycle industry panel looks for ways to reverse sagging sales

Hours before the 2017 Progressive International Motorcycle Show opened its doors at the Long Beach Convention Center, a secret cabal of industry veterans was meeting privately to discuss troubled U.S. motorcycle sales.

Organized by power sports consultant Robert Pandya, who until recently helped manage marketing and public relations for Indian Motorcycle, the anonymous group of 25 experts held an informal summit to try to forge a way forward for an industry that many believe has reached a crisis.

Included in the group were current and former motorcycle company senior managers, industry consultants, marketing executives, veteran motorcycle journalists, retired racers and non-professionals passionate about riding.

“It’s an opportunity for experienced industry as well as enthusiast owners to anonymously and critically weigh in on opportunities to grow and expand motorcycling,” Pandya said.
​

Thanks for the Data Dan.:thumbup

 

[fubar929]

So how do you see it? Will motorcycles continue as a viable form of transportation or will it just slowly become more of just a sport or hobby with people riding dirt, track or weekend twisty roads.

Why would anyone want to commute on a motorcycle in states other than California? Since lane sharing is illegal you get absolutely no benefit, except maybe parking-wise, yet you're completely exposed to the elements and at the mercy of a zillion idiots distractedly piloting 2-ton cruise missiles...

 

[moto-rama]

Motorcycle renaissance!

Just imagine:

A Commute where all the cars play by the rules, are predictable, and See You.

A world where the only vehicles you can control are Motorcycles!


Self Driving Autonomous Cars/Trucks?

Yes!

 

[bpw]

I suspect motos will become off road and track recreation vehicles. Kinda like no one commutes by horse anymore but people still ride for fun.

While I will miss street riding, the possible benefits of self driving cars are so great I would be willing to give it up.

 

[Alexey]

Others have already noted that circumstances in much of continental US are not the best for motorcyclists right now. Whether there's some generational cultural shift or not, it's undeniable that in this country, riding a bike is not as cheap or safe as it could be. Comparisons to other countries may not be very fair. UK and a lot EU don't get persistent snowy and icy conditions that a lot of US cities get. In rural and suburban US, the bikes' advantages are less pronounced, where parking and congestion are not so bad. And if you look over at emerging industrialization in other countries, especially in Asia, you'll see populations buying cheap cars as soon as their standard of living allowed it.

As far as self-driving cars, I don't share the same enthusiasm. There are signs that the industry is looking for ways to bring down costs of development of the technology through R&D partnerships between brands. My feeling is that it will be quite a few years before fully autonomous vehicles rule the roads. I think we'll be dealing with a lot of computer driver aids with varying degrees of effectiveness, but a general downward trend of engagement between drivers and their surroundings will continue. So for motorcyclists, bicyclists, and pedestrians, things may not be looking safer, except through better infrastructure designs.

This summer, I bought a scooter and started riding it around NYC. Since I got it on the road, I barely touched my large capacity street moto. Why bother? The small bike and scooter market makes all the sense in the world and I do see young people in this city riding old restored bikes, new smaller bikes, scooters, and of course bicycles. So I'm not quite sold on the idea that this generation is too scared to ride. I think they're just making decisions that make sense in these times. To paraphrase what's been said about boxing, nothing can kill the motorcycle industry, and nothing can save it.

 

[sanjuro]

One other potential area of weakness is electric bicycles.

They can do 25mph with a fit rider and you can take them on public transportation.