Motostats 2009

[DataDan]

With the recent publication by US DOT of motorcycle registration data for 2009, we can see how the sharp drop in deaths in '09 affected the fatality rate per registered motorcycle. Here's the updated US chart from the OP in this thread. The rate is near, but not quite, an all-time low, just a fraction above 1997.

The California fatality rate per registered motorcycle is also near an all-time low.

This is certainly great news, but it will be a few more years before the recent trend can be officially pronounced reversed.

For info, the third chart in the OP, Bay Area rate, requires registrations by county, which won't be available until later in the year.

 

[DataDan]

Thanks to CHP, 2009 registrations by county are now available, and I can update the Bay Area chart:

Bay Area deaths dropped sharply in 2009 but remain slightly higher than 2000. However, the rate per registered motorcycle is the lowest seen in records I have. Because I don't have registrations by county before 2000, I can't put the current rate into the same context I have for California and the US.

I've asked this before, but it still puzzles me: Any idea why the Bay Area rate per registered bike is so much lower than the California rate? My guesses are greater seasonality than the southern half of the state, or more motorcycles per rider.

 

[Ogg]

I've asked this before, but it still puzzles me: Any idea why the Bay Area rate per registered bike is so much lower than the California rate? My guesses are greater seasonality than the southern half of the state, or more motorcycles per rider.

If I had to hazard a guess it'd be "more and better gear" in addition to the seasonality. The cooler climate might also make it more likely that the gear is actually worn. I'd be very careful to caveat this by saying the gear question wouldn't affect accident rates necessarily, just survivability.

I also wonder at the effect on fatality rates of where miles tend to be ridden - freeway or back roads. My peeks into the FARS data seem to strongly suggest that fatalities are much more common on a divided highway than a canyon road.
So is a rider from, e.g. Fresno, more likely to be without gear and riding slab than a rider from the Bay?