No doubt that California is doing very badly now.
I think a large part of it is pandemic fatigue. People are tired of the restrictions and it's like lane sharing, nothing bad happened yet (to me) to we don't have to work at it as we have been.
I think it was a colossal blunder, on the CA leadership's part, to have the get together at the French Laundry, that was a striking Do As I Say, Not As I Do. His entire message and that of the health experts got seriously undermined. The mandates became pretty much unenforceable following that, how is any LEO going to charge a business for doing something that the top leadership did and didn't have any consequences for?
Also, this state has been very unintelligent with how it's shut down businesses, parks and other venues. There is no gray areas, where there should be, only black and white, one size fits all.
Far too many businesses have failed due to the poorly designed restrictions and nobody can fully back up the policies anymore. They've had plenty of time to evolve them, but they haven't.
+1. Where I'm currently at, masks are mandatory, same rough rules as CA, etc. Restaurants are serving inside as much as they can. Several have had covid outbreaks among staff and shut down. Masks are required when participating in certain aspect of the sport which isn't that big of a deal given the activity. However, there are very few people who believe these measures are making a formidable difference and THAT is the key to the losing battle, which probably isn't winnable anyway.
Matt's posts below this are quite on point in that thinking.
Yep, but the death numbers alone really don't mean much.
What I would like to see is how the states compare demographically per capita. Only then do you start seeing true trends.
If ND has a higher % of older people with 3 or more comorbidities, then it makes complete sense they have a higher rate of death.
You do this so your sample populations all sit equal. This is basic statistics. Can’t compare if the sample has variance.
FWIW: I only use the deaths per capita as an inference on how affected a hospital may be. If a state has a significantly higher death rate, I make the assumption that their hospitals are constrained. It tends to hold out valid.
I agree you can’t directly compare rates between SD and CA, but not for the reasons you state. Mask use, precautions, and attitudes differ by region, as do risk factors like age, obesity, population density, and climate. Also agree the Vitamin D link is interesting.
We're on the same page. Matt said the same thing essentially, but with a better explanation that I would be able to give. Deaths / 100K has a limited use. I don't believe it has much value to help effect any policy certainties of results. I really don't see that the extreme and non-extreme measures have shown us much difference(s) aside from our beliefs and speculation. CA's outbreak leads me to this. I really, really do not want to contract Covid, but I'm resolved in that being the end result for all of us, absent the results of the vaccination programs. I'm not agro on my point, I simply don't feel it's the best use of "awareness" or journalism.
Lest we forget, Berto also professes deaths aren’t higher than usual, ignore the freezer lorries parked outside hospitals, the problem is with paperwork. Wait, now it’s vitamins too! (It must’ve been a tongue in cheek comment.)
Dismissing normalised metrics is like saying I lap under 1:20. Where, what vehicle, race or track day, what? Nah, just under 1:20. See, I’m fast.
Are you going back to April? Ok.
Normalized metrics on a track run a lap against all other laps during the day. That is "normalized" on a race course. Your example is good though in that you "saying I lap under 1:20" when in reality, we have no clue what time you lap at given you're "saying" this, as opposed to using recorded data. It's clear you've used an example without a grasp on anything In it. Dangerous thoughts. Someone's gonna get killed trying to keep up with your speed.
To put up an example on how lap times work, it would help to have practical experience. Head over to the trackday forum and check out a few threads on how lap times work and are recorded.
Soooo... Sturgis came to California? :dunno
California came to California...many made this point months ago: if the State keeps people locked down without any participation in the decisions of their plight, they'll eventually ignore state orders/ advisements/ edicts. Our liberty we've been taught is a birthright runs counter to long standing emergency orders.
In short, eventually almost all people are going to say "fuck it" and do whatever they think is "reasonable". Why some of the states weren't able to anticipate this is a bit quixotic.
I live in Sonoma County, my oldest brother in Denton County TX, my younger brother in Dade County FL and my sister in Gwinnett County GA.
I put this together for them and it is interesting to see how those County per 100k number (far right column) compare to the State as a whole.
SONOMA COUNTY 494,336 4.94336 182 37
DENTON COUNTY 887,207 8.87207 320 36
DADE COUNTY 2,717,000 27.17 4127 152
GWINNETT COUNTY 936,250 9.3625 591 63
CALIFORNIA 39,510,000 395.1 24220 61
TEXAS 29,000,000 290 27062 93
FLORIDA 21,480,000 214.8 21134 98
GEORGIA 10,620,000 106.2 10352 97
The largest City in each County are:
Santa Rosa
Denton
Miami
Peachtree Corners
Miami parties like it's 1999 unlike the three other largest cities in the Counties in which my siblings and I reside.
The results speak for themselves.
None of my family or friends in California did but virtually all of them in Texas, Florida and Georgia did indeed have Christmas visiting numerous households.
Not picking on you Geoff, but your posts regarding death counts dovetail into my point about deaths/ 100K being more political than practical value. YMMV.
